5 crucial matchups that will decide Broncos at Packers
It's Week 3 of the NFL season and the Denver Broncos are heading to Wisconsin — a state in which they have never won — to face off against the Green Bay Packers. After dropping their first two contests in very frustrating fashion, the Broncos are looking to avoid a death wish 0-3 start so that they can cling to whatever playoff hopes they have remaining, if there's any left.
Per Odds Shark, there have been 98 teams that have started off the season 0-2. Of them, only 12 have actually made the playoffs. Per the Washington Post, there have been 176 teams to start 0-3 since 1980. Only six of them went on to finish with a postseason berth.
Simply put, the Broncos absolutely must win for the first time this season and the first time in the no-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field if they hope to maximize their already staggering postseason aspirations.
Failures to execute the play designs properly on the offensive side of the football has been the largest issue for the Broncos as a whole. Defensively, the Broncos have been solid but unspectacular as they have yet to get after the quarterback as expected.
This week the Broncos get to square off against a Packers team whose defense has been forcing big play after big play to start their season off on the right foot. How the Broncos perform in these five areas could ultimately decide if they can upset the Cheeseheads on the road.
Broncos' OL Dalton Risner & Ronald Leary vs. Packers' DL Kenny Clark
The Broncos have looked to have hit a home run with the selection of Dalton Risner with the 40th selection of the 2019 NFL Draft, but his lack of experience showed its ugly face as he struggled against Chicago Bears' DL Akiem Hicks. Ronald Leary and Elijah Wilkinson were also abused by No. 96 in white last week.
Kenny Clark isn't quite the proven player that Hicks is as of right now, but this young interior defender is quickly becoming a top-tier pass rusher in his own right. Clark was named to Pro Football Focus' Team of the Week for Week 2.
Clark was dominant against the Vikings last week, gathering up seven QB pressures and a strip-sack of Kirk Cousins.
Letting Clark get interior pressure at the rate he has this far this season is a recipe for disaster, especially with our next matchup to watch.
Broncos' LT Garret Bolles vs. Packers OLBs Preston & Za'Darius Smith
Until proven otherwise, Bolles will continue to be a talking point as a crucial matchup to watch. Despite vows and promises to figure it out as the Broncos' left tackle, Bolles' holding penalty struggles have continued, with four more flags enforced against him (and several others that weren't) against a Bears' defense that has a lot of similar qualities along their defensive line.
Preston and Za'Darius Smith were brought in to vastly improve the Packers' pass rush this season, and they haven't disappointed. Green Bay already has six total sacks as a club, with Preston Smith and Kenny Clark leading the way with 1.5 each. The Packers also rank fourth in the NFL with 16 total hits on the quarterback, largely due to the Smith duo off the edge.
Bolles was the subject of this week's episode of Dove Valley Deep-Divers (embedded below), as Erick Trickel and I broke down his technique in extreme depth. The issues with his footwork and hand placement are going to be tested once again with either Smith coming off the edge.
Broncos' TE Noah Fant vs. LB Blake Martinez
While this Packers' defense is very solid upfront and in the secondary, they have a massive weakness with their pass coverage at the linebacker position, even more so than the Broncos.
Blake Martinez is more than sufficient as a run defender, but he is absolutely atrocious in pass coverage. Since 2018, Martinez has allowed an astonishing 50 completions out the 66 times he has been targeted according to Pro Football Reference's advanced defensive statistics.
That's a completion percentage of 75.7% in his coverage, with opposing QB's a perfect 5-for-5 so far this season. He also has five touchdowns allowed in his pass coverage.
Noah Fant has yet to be unleashed in the Broncos' passing schemes with only eight total targets over the first two weeks. He only has six receptions for 62 yards so far.
Given the team's investment in Fant as the 20th overall selection this past April's draft, the lack of production and emphasis on making Fant a primary target has a lot of analysts scratching their heads.
If there was any week to flip the script and get Fant involved early and often, this is most certainly it.
Broncos S Justin Simmons vs. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
We all already know that Aaron Rodgers is one of the league's best signal-callers, so he has to be an obvious addition to matchups to watch. However, I am putting Simmons as the Broncos' player to watch here because of his penchant for over-pursuing plays as they unfold in front of him. Simmons oftentimes gets himself out of position by looking into the backfield rather than keeping sound fundamentals as the deep safety.
Rodgers is elite with his eyes and he looks off safeties with ease prior to taking his shots down the field. He's even more dangerous when he extends plays outside of the pocket, creating that 'schoolyard football' effect as his receivers scramble to get open.
Simmons is overly aggressive at times, and Rodgers can take advantage of that. Simmons needs to stay true to his defensive responsibilities — especially with Rodgers on the run — to prevent any deep shots down the field to Marquez Valdez-Scantling or Davante Adams. Getting himself even two yards out of position is all it takes with a QB of Rodgers' caliber.
Broncos' pass rushers vs. Rodgers' time of release
Continuing on Rodgers here, this is a statistic that everybody in Broncos Country needs to realize. One of the primary reasons that the Broncos' pass rush hasn't been able to get to the quarterback as expected is the fact that 27 of the 53 passing attempts that the defense has faced this season have been released in under two seconds.
There's simply not enough time for the pass rsuh to get there. Oakland and Chicago stole the teeth from the Broncos' pass rush like rogue dentists by using the quick passing game.
Rodgers is a different case entirely. He likes to hold onto the football and maximize the likelihood of a big play downfield. He uses his athleticism to escape the rush in the pocket and extend plays on a regular basis, driving his time of release to a 3.04-second average from snap to throw.
Don't get me wrong, Rodgers can sling it quickly as well, but his knack for holding onto the football has gotten him under constant fire from opposing pass rushers this year.
Chicago was able to collect five sacks in Week 1 and Minnesota got to Rodgers twice last weekend.
This could be the week the Broncos' pass rush gets to pin their ears back and finally get some pressure upfront.
Follow Lance on Twitter @SandersonMHH and @MileHighHuddle.