Understanding How Much Cap Space GM George Paton Truly Has to Work With

Do the Broncos have as much cap space as fans think after tagging and tendering several players?

With free agency starting next week, all of Broncos Country’s attention will be focused on which players new GM George Paton will have in his sights to get suited up in the Orange and Blue. There is a general sense of optimism for this free agency period given the amount of cap space the Denver Broncos have on hand.

At one point last week, the Broncos were in the top-5 in the league in available cap space. That was after clearing $23.5 million by releasing A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey. 

In the time since, we've learned the Broncos will franchise tag Justin Simmons at a cap cost of $13.73M for the 2021 season, sliding them down to No. 10 in the league in available cap space — $35,160,124.

Now, let’s take a look at some other upcoming moves and how that adjusts that number further.

Note: For this exercise, we are not taking into consideration the total number of players Denver brings in and how that effects the top 51 rule. This actual cap space could end up being slightly different than what the figures in this article reflect.

Taking Care of Restricted Free Agents

Paton has already said he plans to tender the three restricted free agents on the roster — RB Phillip Lindsay, WR Tim Patrick, and LB Alexander Johnson. Extending these tenders was considered to be a no-brainer.

What is not clear at this time is what level they will be tendered at. Here are the costs for each tender for 2021 according to Over The Cap:

• First round: $4,766,000
• Second round: $3,384,000
• Original round: $2,133,000

All three of the aforementioned players were undrafted free agents, so if Denver were to place an original round tender on any of them, another team could sign them to an offer sheet and not need to forfeit any draft picks to the Broncos in the process.

If you remember, this exact scenario occurred in 2016 when the Broncos were forced to match a Dolphins' offer on RB C.J. Anderson and to avoid losing him with no compensation in return. With that in mind, it would be prudent for Paton to place at least a second-round pick on each of them to deter other teams from extending an offer sheet. 

That would mean the Broncos either get them all back at a price of $3.384M for 2021 or receive a second-round pick if they were to sign elsewhere. A win-win situation.

Outside of these three players, there aren’t any other noteworthy restricted or early rights players who will have a material impact on the cap number.

So that $35M in cap space all a sudden becomes somewhere close to $25M.

Setting Aside Cap for Draft Picks

As it stands currently, the Broncos have nine total draft picks, three of which are in the seventh round. Per Spotrac, the estimated amount of cap space Denver will need to sign those picks is $8,911,889. 

Of course, if Denver were to trade any of those picks (which is a strong likelihood) that cap number will change. But for this exercise, let’s stick with that number — which drops the effective cap space down to $15,982,235.

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Trimming the Rest of the Bad Contracts

So that nearly $50M in cap space last week has suddenly dwindled down to just under $16M. But there are a couple of deals the Broncos can still move on from to free up a little more space.

Releasing TE Nick Vannett would clear up $2,678,125.

Releasing QB Jeff Driskel would clear up $2,500,000

Outside of those two players, there aren’t many obvious cuts left. There have been talks about Kareem Jackson’s status with the team as of late, but I think Paton put those notions to bed in his latest presser — reiterating that he wants Kareem to stay in Denver.

So clear the Vannett and Driskel contracts and you’re back up to $21,160,360 in cap space.

The Von Miller Situation

Now we can talk about the biggest mystery in Broncos Country right now. Will Miller be back with the team in 2021?

All of the previously mentioned cap figures have factored in the $22.2M Miller is slated to make for the 2021 season.

If the team were to forgo Miller's option (which has a March 16 deadline), the team would free up $18M in cap space for this season.

Of course, there is still a chance the team can come to terms on an extension for Miller, which would allow them to spread the final two years of his deal out and lower his cap hit from the $22M he’s slated to have this season.

This situation is one we will be monitoring closely over the next week, and has significant ramifications for both the Broncos cap and depth at the OLB position.

What Does Paton Really Have to Work With?

So you essentially have two numbers you can look at when determining the actual dollar amount Paton will have to work with once the new league year starts on March 17.

With Miller: $39,160,360

Without Miller: $21,160,360

Whichever number the Broncos end up having above, there are certain needs you’d hope the team addresses prior to the draft with those cap dollars.

• Cornerback: The team must sign a free agent cornerback. Rolling into the draft with just nickel corner Bryce Callahan and second-year Michael Ojemudia is a risky play.
• D-Line: Paton has already said he would like to keep Shelby Harris. But you’d hope there are other D-line signings alongside him, with Mike Purcell coming off a season-ending injury and DeMarcus Walker hitting free agency.
• Backup/hedge QB: Whether or not Drew Lock is the guy beginning in Week 1, the Broncos would be wise to bring a vet into their QB room to either compete with or mentor him.
• Inside linebacker: The Broncos don’t necessarily have to address inside linebacker in free agency with Johnson returning. However, this could be a position Fangio decides is in need of a more immediate upgrade.

There are of course still needs elsewhere on the roster, but mostly in the depth department, which can be addressed during the draft.

Bottom Line

At the end of the day, the next domino that has to fall for the Broncos this offseason is the Von Miller situation. We should expect to have an answer on this in the next week with his option deadline looming.

Only then will Paton will have a clear picture of how much he can afford in free agency.

So if you’re the GM, what are you first doing with Miller? And then how are you spending the remaining cap dollars in free agency? Sound off in the comments below!

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