PFF Taps Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy as Breakout Player for 2021

Jerry Jeudy endured his fair share of rookie struggles but what does the future hold for the ex-first-rounder? Pro Football Focus weighs in.

Heading into the 2020 NFL season, expectations were incredibly high for Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. After all, Jeudy was widely considered one of, if not the, best wide receiver prospects in the class and was viewed nearly unanimously the most nuanced and skilled route runner the draft has seen in the past decade. 

As a perfect fit for the West Coast Offense of newly-hired offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, a scheme that relies on quick separation and ability to create yards after the catch, Jeudy was projected to be in the running for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

From hype videos highlighting Jeudy’s elite change of direction skills to clips of him creating massive amounts of separation and dominating teams after the catch at Alabama, Jeudy was the talk of the AFC.

What everybody would quickly find out was that Jeudy, despite having sky-high potential, would struggle mightily as he transitioned to the NFL game as he was hampered by inconsistency at the quarterback position and concentration issues when catching the football.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jeudy only caught 76.5% of his catchable targets, the worst mark in the NFL. On top of that, Jeudy’s 17.6% drop percentage ranks as the fifth-worst since 2010 of any receiver that had at least 100 targets in a single season.

With a short memory, some continuity in the offensive scheme, and more consistent quarterback play, PFF believes that Jeudy is going to have a massive second season in 2021, placing him first on its list of six rookies poised to break out next season.

Citing the fact that drop rates are one of the most volatile statistics in the game, PFF has even higher expectations for Jeudy and his career down the road than anybody thought possible.

“On top of the drops, poor quarterback play limited Jeudy’s production. No receiver had a higher rate of their targets result in a quarterback-fault incompletion this season than the rookie. The Alabama product also racked up the most targets on which he created separation that resulted in a quarterback-fault incompletion.

However, it's worth noting that drop rate is one of the most unstable metrics at the wide receiver position. Despite Jeudy's struggles, we saw the same elite route-running chops, deep speed and quickness at the line of scrimmage against press coverage that made him such a highly touted prospect coming out of college.

His 2021 production is still going to be skewed by whichever quarterback Denver trots out, but regardless, I’d bet the farm Jeudy becomes a top-10 wide receiver in the years to come.”

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It was a struggle for the dynamic playmaker, and his five-drop performance in a late-season loss to the Los Angeles Chargers stuck in the craw of many fans in Broncos Country. It was arguably the worst performance of Jeudy’s career, and he knows it.

When asked by the media about his poor performance that afternoon, Jeudy’s response was candid. Have you ever had a game like that in your career?

“Never,” the embattled wideout said back in December.

In true bounce-back form, Jeudy wouldn’t dwell on his career-worst, catching five balls for 140 yards and a 92-yard touchdown that gave the Broncos the lead in the fourth quarter the next week vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. 

Jeudy also had a high drop rate back at Alabama so the continuation of that trend in the league has many people worried. While it wasn’t all his fault, there were several critical drops that ended up being costly for the Broncos, including a deep shot in the aforementioned Chargers game that hit him between the one and zero on his chest plate and the third-down crossing route in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans that killed the drive to open up play in the second half. 

Jeudy also dropped a deep touchdown at the New England Patriots in Week 6. Those are on him, and he is going to have to figure that out for himself.

However and as PFF stated, the major inconsistencies at the quarterback position severely hampered Jeudy’s output as well. According to Next Gen Stats, he had almost 200 expected air yards taken away from his production thanks to those drops and inaccurate passing from the quarterback position.

Next Gen Stats

Another hindrance to his impact last season was the early-season ACL injury to Denver's No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton, placing a massive weight on the rookie's plate. Though Jeudy and third-year wideout Tim Patrick did play well in Sutton’s absence, having Sutton on the field to draw some bracket coverage opposite of Jeudy would have opened up more room for Jeudy to make plays in.

Jeudy did well enough to create his own separation with his elite quickness and incredible route running, averaging 2.7 yards of separation per route run last season according to Next Gen Stats. Adding another elite level receiving option could push that number north of three yards next season, and if there is some more consistent ball placement by whichever QB is throwing him the football, it’s easy to see how Jeudy could become the league’s next dynamic wideout with his explosive potential with the ball in his hands.

If the Broncos do somehow manage to acquire Matthew Stafford this offseason as the rumors and odds suggest, the hype machine for Jeudy prior to last season will only grow louder. Stafford, a truly elite QB with amazing accuracy and timing on his throws, should get the best out of Jeudy rather quickly.

PFF may be onto something here. Let’s hope Jeudy doesn’t drop the ball once again. 

Follow Lance on Twitter @SandersonMHH and @MileHighHuddle.