Projecting What Raiders QB Derek Carr's New Contract Means for Broncos' Russell Wilson

Does the Derek Carr extension foreshadow the future for Russell Wilson in Denver?

The NFL's 2022 offseason has seen significant parity featuring blockbuster trades and big-money contracts, specifically in the AFC West. After Denver Broncos' GM George Paton went all-in for quarterback Russell Wilson in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks, the Las Vegas Raiders answered by acquiring former Green Bay Packers' star wideout Davante Adams.

Bringing in Adams allows Raiders' head coach Josh McDaniels to support ninth-year QB Derek Carr with an arsenal of weapons that include wideout Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller — not to mention Las Vegas’ defense that extended edge defender Maxx Crosby on a four-year, $95 million deal in addition to signing fellow pass rusher Chandler Jones to a three-year, $51M contract. 

Money talks and you-know-what walks, as it appears the Raiders have shoved their chips into the middle of the table for 2022 after announcing a three-year, $121.5M contract extension for Carr. 

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Carr's latest deal includes a no-trade clause and an average salary of $40.5M. Only Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Deshaun Watson (Cleveland), Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City), and Josh Allen (Buffalo) have higher annual salaries.

Carr, 31, was originally drafted in the second round back in 2014, and has played in 127 career games, recording a 68.4 completion percentage, 31,700 yards, 193 touchdowns, and 85 interceptions. He's a three-time Pro Bowl selection and holds an all-time career record of 57-70 for the Silver and Black. 

The fly in the ointment? Despite 24 comebacks and 30 game-winning drives, Carr has never won a postseason game after debuting in his first playoff game last season.

Carr’s blockbuster deal shook the NFL landscape just two weeks before the 2022 NFL draft. While there’s mixed reaction on whether Carr deserved the deal, the question in the mind of Broncos Country remains, if Carr is a top-5 paid QB, what will Russell Wilson’s next contract look like?

Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl XLVII Champion, is under contract through 2023 and has an average salary of $35M with incentives. His current deal was signed in 2019, which ties him with Kirk Cousins (Minnesota) as the eighth highest-paid QBs in the NFL behind Matthew Stafford (L.A. Rams) and Dak Prescott (Dallas), with Jared Goff (Detroit) in the last spot for the league’s top-10 highest-earning signal-callers.

Two weeks ago, Jeff Howe of The Athletic reported there was no timetable for the Broncos to make a deal with Wilson’s camp. The 33-year-old arrives in Denver after being selected in the third round of 2012’s draft and playing an entire decade in Seattle. 

Wilson started 158 career games for the Seahawks and held a 65.0 completion percentage, throwing for 37,059 yards and 292 touchdowns with 87 interceptions. The 2020 Walter Payton Man of the Year has also rushed for 4,689 yards and 23 touchdowns with a 5.5 yards-per-rush average. 

With a decade of starting in the NFL under his belt, Wilson is also credited with orchestrating 24 comebacks, 32 game-winning drives, and boasts a postseason record of (9-7) with back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.

The Raiders did the Broncos a favor by not resetting the QB market with Carr’s new deal but it's likely to happen with Wilson in Denver. Wilson has already stated he’d like to play at least a decade in the Mile High City, and the buzz out of UCHealth Training Center is that the All-Pro has already transformed the Broncos' culture.

Paton has previously rewarded players like Justin Simmons, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick with considerable contract extensions based on performance, attitude, and leadership. Expect Paton to back up the Brinks truck for Wilson in what could be a $51M-per-season mega-deal. 

Wilson's contract should reset the QB market and put a dent in NFL history as there’s little doubt that he can match the current richest (Rodgers) QB contract at $50.3M per year.

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Follow Luke on Twitter @LukePattersonLP.

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