For Broncos to Succeed With Drew Lock, the QB Will Have to Defy Historic Precedent

The odds aren't on Drew Lock's side.

The Denver Broncos quarterback situation this offseason has already been a roller coaster ride that is starting to make fans dizzy. Aaron Rodgers is on the trade block! Now he isn’t. Will the Broncos land the NFL MVP in trade? 

What about Russell Wilson? He wants out of Seattle, so they said. Well, maybe he doesn’t. How about the plethora of free agent/trade candidates that could land in Denver? 

Denver's QB position will remain a sad state of affairs until this situation is solved. The ideal solution will require an elite quarterback in the Mile High City.

The evidence of the news cycle being so hectic is that there are actually fans and analysts who are on board with the Broncos starting Drew Lock in 2022. If this happens in reality, the news couldn’t be worse. 

Rolling with Lock under center would be of the last resort variety and is the worst-case scenario for the Broncos. If Denver is to have success with Lock the entire 2022 season, he would need a history-defying turnaround in his quarterbacking skills.

Let’s be real for a minute. Analysts and fans can cherry-pick a few games or plays to hint at the potential Lock has, but that is all it is, potential. 

Potential without results isn't worth much. The fact is, Lock has been a terrible quarterback when given the reigns. This is not hyperbole.

A Top-50 Worse Resume

Lock's 2020 campaign, adjusted for era, was in the top-50 worst seasons for a qualifying quarterback in his first or second season since 1960, AFL included. Furthermore, it was in the top-100 worst seasons for any qualifying quarterback. There is nearly 1,500 qualifying quarterback seasons in this analysis and his was worse than 1,400. These are historically bad results.

This is a significant reason why neither Nathaniel Hackett, nor any of the new coaches who have arrived in Dove Valley, have given Lock a resounding vote of confidence as the 2022 starter. The most these coaches have mustered is mentioning his arm strength and “potential.” 

Droves of quarterbacks with potential have been added to the ever-growing bust heap throughout NFL history. To add another layer of difficulty is that Lock has only one remaining season left on his rookie contract to prove himself to the Broncos.

I had hoped that Lock was the next great quarterback. He is a likable guy and has shown glimmers of potential along with some tools that aren’t possessed by just any available quarterback. I, too, thought that he may develop into something special if given the chance. But he was given the chance and he wasn't able to capitalize. 

Excuses Galore

In his 21 starts, Lock has produced just four really great games, six horrific games, and a bunch of others that ranged from below-average to average. When he replaced Teddy Bridgewater for the final three games of 2021, there was still a sliver of playoff hope, but he led the team to three straight defeats and the Broncos' fifth consecutive losing season.

Excuses for his performance from the pro-Lock crowd are abundant. First, it was the ‘he was injured and missed practice time’ excuse, then the pandemic excuse of 2020, the dropped passes, and finally, the ‘it’s Pat Shurmur’s fault’ refrain. 

Divine Intervention

Fans can continue to pray to the Football Gods that Lock will make the leap into the elite category, but facts are facts. In order for him to make such a jump from where he was in 2020 to the big time, he will need divine intervention.

Of the quarterbacks who rank in the top-100 worst seasons in a first and/or second season, only nine of them went on to have at least one top-200 season in their career, adjusted for era. Even worse news for Lock is that only three of them were selected after the first round in the draft. Meaning, that teams had invested enough draft capital in the quarterback to continue to give him a shot. Lock doesn’t have that luxury.

Of the three non-first rounders, only one had the top-200 type of turnaround with his original team. He was also drafted in 1973, nearly five decades removed from this instant gratification era. This lack of investment in Lock could be another reason why the new coaches aren’t giving him a ringing endorsement.

Odds Gauntlet

To add more difficulty to the potential of Lock's redemption is that he would need to have such a massive improvement from 2020 in every major statistical category in order to lead the Broncos on a playoff run. He would have to improve at least 49% on average across all those major categories to put him into elite status. This improvement is rare in the history of the NFL.

There have been only 28 quarterbacks who have shown this level of improvement from their worst season early in their career. Only 28 since 1960 including the AFL. Let that sink in. 

These are unicorns. Anomalies. To add insult to injury, only 12 made this improvement within two seasons of their worst performance. The quarterbacks who were able to have this level of improvement are as rare as a Red Beryl gemstone.

Bottom Line

If you're keen to bet on Lock doing what so few have done in the past, you must be the riskiest of gamblers. For those that still want to hold out hope, they must buy into all the excuses, cherry-pick to highlight the glimmer of potential, interpret the tiniest approval from the new coaches in press conferences as a ringing endorsement, or just blindly believe. 

The new Broncos coaches won’t do the required mental gymnastics it takes to believe and will do everything in their power to not be dealt the worst-case scenario at quarterback in 2022. 

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Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasHallNFL.

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