ESPN Renders Brutal Prediction for 2024 Broncos Defense

This would put DC Vance Joseph on a scathingly-hot seat.

Dec 31, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos will remain in football purgatory hamstrung by a defense that's unable to stop a nosebleed — according to ESPN's latest calculations, anyway.

Senior NFL writer Mike Clay, who recently unveiled his 2024 forecast, projected the Broncos to allow 423 points this season, second-most behind only the Arizona Cardinals (443). Clay also classified Denver as the league's fifth-worst team (28th overall), suggesting a finish at or near the "basement."

"This is a tough one considering a Sean Payton-led team has never won fewer than seven games, but Denver is among the bottom six on both sides of the ball and will need to hit the jackpot with rookie QB Bo Nix to get out of the basement in the AFC," he wrote Sunday.

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Under the watch of returning coordinator Vance Joseph, the Broncos ceded 413 points in 2023, a number inflated by their 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins last September. Joseph's unit nevertheless ranked 27th in total scoring — 28th in passing touchdowns relinquished, 17th in rushing TDs surrendered — and 22nd in defensive DVOA.

"We have to get off to a better start," Joseph said in June regarding his biggest point of emphasis. "Obviously coaching better and playing better from Week One on. That’s obviously our goal. Once we get rolling, it’s going to be good. But just having a better start.”

Bolstered by the additions of veteran linemen Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Myers, as well as rookie pass-rusher Jonah Elliss, Denver's defense was noticeably improved this preseason, shutting out the Green Bay Packers and holding the Cardinals to just 12 points.

Of course, that's a small, largely meaningless sample size. The true test will come in Sunday's regular-season opener against the Seattle Seahawks, who placed 11th in offensive scoring percentage and 12th in average points per drive last year.

"We expect to play better early, and that’s the bottom line," Joseph said in June.

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