Analytics Predict if Ex-Jaguars TE Evan Engram Would Thrive With Broncos

Evan Engram could work as a short-term band-aid, but the Denver Broncos would have to keep expectations in check.

Thomas Hall | Mar 7, 2025

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (17) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

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Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton is looking for a tight end with elite receiving skills to fill his “joker” role on offense. It just so happens the Jacksonville Jaguars released tight end Evan Engram.

Engram has shown elite-level receiving skills for a tight end during his eight-year career. It sounds like Engram, and the Broncos would be quite the match. Or would it?

Engram ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the 20217 NFL Combine, which, in tandem with his receiving production at Ole Miss, pushed him into the first round of the draft. Since then, he's had a productive career, including a phenomenal 2023 season with 114 receptions and 963 yards.

Engram's career is not over, but unless he finishes extremely strong, nobody is going to be pushing him for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He's a good tight end, having received two Pro Bowl selections over his career, but he's not in the same class as some of the past greats like Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates. This is where the high hopes for him should be toned down.

Over the past 20-plus years of data, very few tight ends had good seasons continuing late in their careers. Engram will be turning 31 years old as the 2025 season starts and that's where we begin to compare the data.

Since 1998, there have been four tight ends who earned All-Pro/Pro Bowl awards at 31 years old: the aforementioned Gonzalez and Gates, along with Jason Witten and Greg Olsen. These four are Hall-of-Fame-caliber tight ends. Engram can't be compared to any of them.

However, there are some good tight ends we can use as a comparison for Engram. In fact, there are seven tight ends who earned at least two All-Pro/Pro Bowl awards prior to turning 31 and also continued playing at that age.

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At 31 years old, none of these tight ends earned another one of those awards, nor did they do so at any time afterward. Removing the Hall-of-Fame tight ends from the group who played to 31 years old or beyond also removes any tight end who continued to play at an elite level. In other words, anyone expecting elite-level play from Engram at his advancing age is poised to have their hopes dashed.

That doesn't mean Engram can't be effective as a tight end. It means the excitement for him should be tempered. The issue goes deeper. Not a single tight end in the comparison group started all of their possible games at 31.

The average was 67% of games started at age 31. Engram missing eight games last season due to injury would indicate his body may be wearing out. It would be foolish to think he would play all 17 games in 2025 even with Broncos V.P. of player health and performance Beau Lowery in the fold.

Furthermore, the average receiving stats for the comparison group of aging tight ends is 35 catches, 369 yards, and two touchdowns. The max season at that age was 58 catches, 593 yards, and a touchdown by Heath Miller.

If Engram can log similar stats to Miller, it would be a huge upgrade for the Broncos. However, it is more probable that Engram will be somewhere closer to the average.

Bottom Line

If the Broncos are going to pursue Engram with a free-agent contract, they had better be prepared to pay for more pedestrian production and understand he's unlikely to play a full 17 games. Hunter Henry signed a contract in 2024 that paid him an average of $9 million per year, which would be a solid reference point for going after Engram.

The Broncos should be skeptical about aging tight ends not of the Hall-of-Fame caliber. Tight ends at Engram's age can be moderately productive but aren't usually difference-makers in their early 30s.

Bottom Line

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