5 Broncos Takeaways from Patrick Mahomes' $503M Mega-Deal
There's plenty of buzz about the Kansas City Chiefs — an arch AFC West rival of the Denver Broncos — giving Patrick Mahomes a 10-year contract extension.
I'll leave it to others to explain the particulars about Mahomes' contract (Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap and Bill Barnwell at ESPN both have good analysis), but the question our readers have is, what does it all mean for the Broncos in the long term?
Here are five ramifications for the Broncos, both short- and long-term, some related to Mahomes and some to whether Drew Lock and company can truly take advantage.
1. Drew Lock's future contract could be affected, but not in ways you may think.
It's true that Lock will come on a cheap salary for the next three years, but after that, if he shows he's the guy, the franchise tag immediately comes into play. As a second-round pick, Lock has no fifth-year option to utilize and keep him at a below-market salary.
What's more, there are other QBs still awaiting extensions. Dak Prescott signed his franchise tag with the Dallas Cowboys, DeShaun Watson is negotiating a contract extension with the Houston Texans, and there's still the likes of Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold whose fates are to be determined.
I will say that I seriously doubt the Broncos go with a 10-year deal for Lock. On the other hand, Prescott was angling for a four-year deal and Watson reportedly wants a short-term extension, too, with both hoping to capitalize on free agency earlier in their careers. Mahomes' deal doesn't mean those QBs get 10-year deals, but it may be harder for them to get shorter deals.
If Prescott has to take a five-year deal and Watson has to sign, say, a four-year extension beyond the two years left on his rookie deal, that likely signals Lock will have to take either a four-year extension in the final year of his rookie deal or, if he plays that deal out and gets the tag, a five-year deal.
Fans should remember that total compensation isn't always the issue at hand for players — contract length can come into play if a player wants to bet on getting an even bigger payday on his third contract. But the Mahomes deal might mean shorter extensions are less likely for QBs who either prove themselves or teams who want long-term commitments.
2. Lock's development isn't guaranteed to be on a fast track like Mahomes.
Let me make one thing clear: I don't think Lock is destined to be a bust in 2020. However, anyone thinking he can become a world-beater in the way that Mahomes and Jackson did in their second seasons should temper their expectations.
Don't forget that Lock is working with a new offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur and, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, Lock's time to work with Shurmur and the players the Broncos have drafted has been limited.
And given the uncertainty about how training camp and the preseason will work, it may take some time for Lock to find his rhythm and comfort, and thus elevate his level of play.
It's not a reason to panic about Lock — it's simply a reminder that it may take a little more time for everything to fall into place than fans may think, given circumstances that are out of Lock's hands.
3. The Chiefs aren't destined to fall apart because of the Mahomes deal.
It's true the Chiefs will commit themselves to a lot of cap and cash to keep Mahomes around, but it doesn't mean the Chiefs are screwed when it comes to their future.
First of all, the Chiefs are projected to have $35M in cap space in 2021, though that's based off a projected cap of $215M and doesn't account for cap carryover, draft picks who haven't yet signed their contracts or even an extension for Chris Jones. Of course, it remains to be seen what Jones' future will be with the Chiefs, especially with Jones hinting he'll sit out the season if the Chiefs don't extend him.
But even then, the Chiefs aren't backed into a corner. The Chiefs could find ways to clear cap space in 2021, such as cutting Alex Okafor or designating Anthony Hitchens a post-June 1 cut. There's also the draft, in which the Chiefs could find players to fill holes.
The real issue for the Chiefs is to not trade away picks for players unless they can get a cheap player for a late-round pick as a "final puzzle piece" for a Super Bowl run. In other words, they need to avoid the trap the Seahawks entered, in trading away too many picks for players and then not drafting well with their remaining choices.
Bear in mind, because Mahomes is an elite player, the Chiefs don't necessarily need elite players on big contracts at every position. Kansas City's philosophy has been to put less money into cornerbacks and the interior line, for instance.
Whether that strategy keeps working remains to be seen, but there are areas in which the Chiefs don't necessarily need to be elite each year, because Mahomes can make up for some of that. He just shouldn't be expected to make up for all of it.
4. The Broncos will have their own players to address — and sooner than you realize.
It's true the Broncos won't have to worry about extending a bunch of their own players who are set to become free agents in 2021. Brandon McManus might be one, but nothing is guaranteed and, if he's extended, it won't be pricey. Todd Davis will likely have to take a team-friendly deal to stick around and Garett Bolles will need to prove he's worthy of a new contract.
But the Broncos will need to start thinking about what happens down the road. Consider Alexander Johnson and Phillip Lindsay, who will be restricted free agents in 2021, meaning their cheap salaries will rise to more than $3M each in the likely event they get second-round RFA tenders.
And then comes 2022, when not only are Johnson and Lindsay set to become unrestricted free agents, but so is Courtland Sutton. And then there's Bradley Chubb's fifth-year option to account for. Before you know it, it's time to extend Lock, Chubb and Dalton Risner, while Noah Fant enters his fifth-year option.
It may be fun to think about free agency in future years, but the Broncos have plenty of in-house contracts they'll have to address first. And that doesn't even account for another issue related to going "all in" on 2021 free agency
5. Veterans under contract aren't necessarily fated to be cut in 2021.
Some may argue you could chase after Jones or other top free agents in 2021 by cutting other players under contract. However, the Broncos don't play free agency that way.
GM John Elway's philosophy has been that he'll keep players under contract unless they either don't live up to the deal or he believes it's best to move them for draft picks when the Broncos aren't clearly in playoff contention.
That means, if the likes of Von Miller, Jurrell Casey, AJ Bouye, Bryce Callahan and Ja'Wuan James all play well in 2020, and the Broncos stay in the playoff hunt throughout the season — and especially if they make the playoffs — those veterans will stick around in 2021.
It's true that questions remain about what will happen with the salary cap in 2021, given questions about league revenues for 2020. However, if the Broncos were forced to cut players, they certainly won't be able to go "all in" on Jones or another high-dollar player.
If any of the mentioned veterans don't live up to their contracts in 2020, of course you have to move on. But don't count on that being the outcome just yet.
The truth is that we really won't know what will happen with either the Broncos or the Chiefs until everything plays out in 2020 and beyond. And if you get the best-case scenario for the Broncos players, there's reason to celebrate, but a reminder that you will be committing cap and cash to those players in one or more seasons.
The Broncos do have a chance to claim the division title in the next season or two, but fans shouldn't take anything for granted simply because the Chiefs had to show Mahomes the money. There's still a lot in play.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
