5 Reasons the Broncos Make the Playoffs in 2020

The Broncos are trending towards January football next year. Here's why.

A year ago, we were talking about how long it had been since the Denver Broncos had posted back-to-back losing seasons. To make matters worse, after finishing the 2019 season at 7-9, the Broncos have now reeled off three consecutive losing seasons. 

Super Bowl 50 feels like a lifetime ago, and at times over the last few seasons, it’s looked like this Broncos team has forgotten what it’s like to win.

However, the finish to the 2019 campaign feels significantly different than the finishes to the two previous seasons. Optimism has been renewed throughout Broncos Country. 

The historic franchise suddenly has a lot going in its favor as the Broncos enter into the offseason. If things play out as we hope, Denver may be finding its way not only back to a winning record — but also into the 2020 playoff picture. Here are five reasons why the Broncos are bound for the playoffs next year. 

1. QB Situation no Longer a Mystery

Let’s start by addressing the most important factor as to why a return to the playoffs is imminent for the Broncos. Whether or not you are convinced through just five starts that Drew Lock is a franchise QB, there is one thing that should be clear to even his biggest skeptics; he is the guy heading into the offseason. 

Yes, the sample size may be small, but there hasn't been this much optimism about the future of this position in Denver since Peyton Manning signed with the team nearly eight years ago.

Lock went 4-1 as a starter this season and finished with 1,020 yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions, and completion percentage north of 64, all of which was good for an 89.7 rating. The yardage and touchdown totals may not jump off the page at you, but look at the completion percentage in his five-game sample size. 

One of the biggest concerns scouts had about Lock coming out of college was his accuracy. During his four years at Missouri, he completed just 56.9% of his passes — not very good.

However, if you look at these numbers year by year, he improved every season — going from 49% his freshman year to 54.6%, 57.8% and then 62.9% his senior season. His completion percentage of 64.1% in his rookie year continues that trend of five consecutive seasons where his passing accuracy improved.

Lastly, there is a clear and noticeable likability factor with Lock that has permeated throughout the locker room. The entire outlook of the season changed when he took the reins in Week 13 against the L.A. Chargers. 

You now have impending free agents like Chris Harris, Jr. and Derek Wolfe publicly stating that Lock at QB has become a selling point for them to potentially stay in Denver. Talk about a drastic 180 from earlier in the season when Denver was living in a 'World of Suck'.

For the first time in a long time, the QB position in Denver has a clear direction 1 and it’s exciting.

2. $85M in Cap Space for Free Agency

According to Spotrac, the Broncos are scheduled to enter 2020 free agency with just a hair under $65 million in cap space. At the time of writing this, the 2020 NFL cap limit has not been set, so these numbers, for now, are just estimates. However, if recent trends continue, the cap limit is more likely to be higher than the estimate than lower.

That $65M can go up even more with a couple of roster moves. Many expect the team to move on from Joe Flacco, who is currently scheduled to make a whopping salary of $23,650,000 in 2020 — a hefty price for a backup quarterback. Moving on from Flacco would free up another $10 million in cap space. That would put Denver at $75M. 

Additionally, OG Ronald Leary has a club option on his contract for the 2020 season. There’s no guarantee the Broncos decline this option, but doing so would result in less than $1M in dead money, while freeing up $8.5M in cap space. 

Leary has struggled to stay on the field during not only his tenure as a Bronco, but throughout his entire career. When healthy, Leary can be a game-changing guard. However, that $8.5M could go a long way to shoring up other areas of the roster, which is why it’s likely time to move on from him.

These two aforementioned roster moves alone would bring the Broncos' total cap space up to an estimated $83M. That is a lot of money to work with, but Denver also has a number of their own free agents they’ll want to re-sign. 

S Justin Simmons is going to be the No. 1 priority this offseason, and based on contracts of other top safeties in the league, do not be surprised to see him command upwards of $15M a year.

Bringing back Simmons at market value would leave around $70M to look at other unrestricted free agents like Wolfe, Harris, Jr., DL Shelby Harris, and C Connor McGovern. Add in a few restricted free agents that will surely return — such as CB De'Vante Bausby, OL Elijah Wilkinson, LB Joe Jones, NT Mike Purcell, and WR Tim Patrick — and you subtract another $10-15M from your available space.

That still leaves the Broncos with $50-plus million to work with after locking up their restricted guys and star safety. That’s a lot of money that will give the Broncos a plethora of options to address other areas of need on the roster. 

Denver will even have the space to chase other top free agents such as Chris Jones, Brandon Scherff, and Byron Jones. GM John Elway has a lot of options this offseason and will look to capitalize on having a cost-controlled QB and a bonafide No. 1 receiver for the next couple of seasons.

What happens next for the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

3. Loaded With 2020 Draft Capital

The Broncos will receive the 15th overall selection in the NFL draft after finishing the season 7-9. Once the playoffs conclude, they’ll know the exact order of all of their selections (picks acquired from the 49ers and Patriots). For now, here are the Broncos selections:

• Round 1: own pick

• Round 2: own pick

• Round 3: via PIT (2019 draft trade)

• Round 3: via SF (Sanders trade)

• Round 4: own pick

• Round 4: via SF (Sanders trade)

• Round 6: via WAS (Case Keenum trade)

• Round 7: via NE (Duke Dawson trade)

Not only will Denver be rolling into the draft with nine total selections, more than half of them (five) will be within the first 100 overall picks! That is a lot of capital and will give this front office a ton of flexibility to move around if they have specific players they want to target. 

The Broncos might even find themselves in a similar situation to last year, where a team is looking to move up (for say a QB) and Denver can add more to their already impressive arsenal of picks.

If the Broncos choose to stand pat, they should be looking at a very good player at pick 15 overall. Here are some of the notable players taken at pick 15 in recent years: QB Dwayne Haskins (2019), T Kolton Miller (2018), S Malik Hooker (2017), RB Melvin Gordon (2015), LB Ryan Shazier (2014), DE Bruce Irvin (2012) and Jason Pierre-Paul (2010). Not a bad list of players.

Another positive as it relates to this year’s draft for the Broncos is this; the 2020 class is replete with talent at their positions of need. The amount of elite talent at wide receiver in the 2020 draft is among the best we have seen in quite some time. 

We could see as many as 8-10 wideouts go in the first round alone. In addition to receiver, this class is also very strong at cornerback, which is another position Denver could be seeking depending on what happens with Chris Harris, Jr. and the rest of free agency.

Lastly, and most importantly, this is the first draft in a while where the Broncos won’t have to debate quarterback prospects nonstop the entire offseason leading up to the draft. Instead, they can build around Lock. This is something all fans should be happy about.

4. Coaching Continuity 

After listening to Elway and Vic Fangio's end-of-season press conference, it appears the Broncos will have some continuity for the first time in awhile going into next season with Fangio returning as head coach, Rich Scangarello at offensive coordinator, and Ed Donatell at defensive coordinator. The jury is still out, however, on the status of Tom McMahon, although Fangio intimated the beleaguered special teams coordinator will return for 2020. 

In the last four seasons, the Broncos have had three different head coaches, four different offensive coordinators, and three different defensive coordinators. Having some continuity in consecutive seasons should go a long way in the improvement of this team, especially on offense. 

Lock is going to have an entire offseason to continue assimilating the same playbook and refining the small nuances of the scheme, a level he didn’t really get to this year as he struggled with picking up the play-calling lingo early on.

Another benefit of having continuity on the coaching staff is how player evaluation will be handled. At the start of the season, Fangio admitted he was still evaluating the Broncos roster and each players’ strengths and weaknesses. 

After a full season, he now knows exactly what he has across the board and can be selective on which guys to retain (that fit the scheme) and which guys are better suited for other teams and can be let go.

This is going to be critical heading into the offseason with a heap of cap space and draft picks. The coaches can focus on finding players that can be plugged in immediately and contribute, rather than trying to force square pegs into round holes.

5. AFC Landscape is Shifting for the Better

The AFC has been dominated for the better part of the last decade by the same teams outside of Denver — the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. While the Patriots are still winning and Tom Brady continues to silence the critics, his time in the NFL is nearing an end. In Pittsburgh, they are in the midst of a massive identity shift and Ben Roethlisberger may soon be joining Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown as ex-Steelers.

Of course, there are conversely a handful of teams trending upwards in the AFC. The Baltimore Ravens appear to have something special with Lamar Jackson at the helm. The Kansas City Chiefs are likely going to remain a problem as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid remain in partnership. 

The Buffalo Bills look to be the new AFC East favorites once the Brady-Belichick era officially comes to an end. The AFC South is a bit of a crapshoot. There are the Houston Texans (whom the Broncos blew out this year) and Tennessee Titans, the latter of whom look surprisingly legit with Ryan Tannehill at QB, along with an Indianapolis Colts team that’s looking like it needs to start over at QB.

So all in all, you’ve got what? 3-5 teams in the entire Conference that are clearly better than the Broncos at this moment in time. That sounds like a Conference that’s pretty open for playoff spots in the near future.

And on the other side of the spectrum, you have a lot of bottom dweller teams that are a long way away from competing at a high level. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders (maybe), and New York Jets (maybe) are surely worse off than Denver heading into 2020.

The only elephant in the room are the Chiefs, who are likely one of the best two or three teams in the AFC for the foreseeable future, which makes a Division title a tall order for the Broncos. This means Denver's  path to the playoffs for 2020 will likely hinge entirely on a Wildcard berth. 

But given that the 9-7 Titans just made the playoffs, and they are somehow the only 9-7 team in the AFC, I like the Broncos' chances next season.

Bottom Line

The last few seasons have been rough in Broncos Country. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Despite a lot of grossly incompetent play at the quarterback position the last three years, the team has improved by one win in each of those seasons. 

Over that same span of time, the Broncos have added a ton of extremely talented young players in the draft to build around. The needle is definitely ticking upward for the Broncos, which is why 2020 will be the year the suffering officially ends and the Orange and Blue find their way not only back into the playoffs, but back into Super Bowl contention.

Follow Trevor on Twitter @TrevorJudge.