These 5 Moves Could be Job-Saving For Broncos GM George Paton

If these moves fully come to fruition, Denver Broncos GM George Paton is safe.

Denver Broncos GM George Paton finds himself in an unusually complex situation heading into the 2023 season. A widely respected talent evaluator who rose the ranks after beginning his career as a local area scout, Paton has made several friends in NFL circles.

But the reviews have been mixed in his first stint as the head man in charge of an organization. Paton has been a solid drafter and brought in several key pieces to the Broncos' roster, but there have also been some devastatingly destructive mishaps over the last three seasons, leading to questions about whether he's on the hot seat.

Head coach Sean Payton has said publicly that his working relationship with Paton has gone swimmingly. There’s been some give and take, but from all accounts, there is mutual trust between the two of them, at least to this point. 

With that being said, there are a few moves that Paton has made that could help save or solidify his job going forward, should they play out as they were first envisioned. 

Let's examine. 

5. Drafting Patrick Surtain II Over Justin Fields

Back in his first draft as general manager, Paton opted to draft cornerback Surtain with the No. 9 overall selection rather than take a much-needed quarterback of the future. Fields was widely considered (at worst) the third-best quarterback prospect in a class that had five players as potential top-15 selections, and the Broncos were heading into draft weekend coming off of a disastrous season with Drew Lock as the incumbent starter and newly signed Teddy Bridgewater as the veteran competition.

Paton, who had Surtain as a top-5 player on his draft board, stuck to his guns and made a selection that would eventually turn out to be the best player at the position a couple of years later. Surtain hit the ground running as a rookie, turning in one of the best rookie cornerback campaigns in NFL history. 

Starting 15 games, Surtain turned in four interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) and was named to the All-Rookie team of both Pro Football Focus and the Pro Football Writers Association of America. In 2022, Surtain started all 17 games for the Broncos, notching another pair of interceptions, forcing a fumble, and was named a first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowler.

In contrast, Fields has struggled to find footing as a starting quarterback in Chicago outside of his elite rushing ability. In 2022, he finished with the second-worst completion percentage (60.4) of any quarterback with at least 350 dropbacks, per our friends at PFF. There are 28 total quarterbacks on that list.

Fields has also struggled to grasp the subtle nuances of playing the quarterback position at the NFL level, showing inconsistent footwork, a slow processor pre-snap to diagnose the defense, throwing receivers open down the field, and identifying coverage rotations post-snap to find open throwing lanes. His timing is off, his accuracy is suffering, and if you were to take away his ability to run the football, he would be considered one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league at this point in his development.

With the added benefit of hindsight and overlooking the fallout of the initial decision (which we will examine at a later date), drafting and hitting on Surtain may be the shiniest feather in Paton's cap.

4. Drafting TE Greg Dulcich

Part of the fun of the former Broncos regime ran by Paton and former head coach Nathaniel Hackett was the Behind the Broncos series that aired on the team's website. In one of those videos for the draft, there was a very palpable sense of excitement when the Broncos managed to trade back and still land Dulcich out of UCLA in the third round.

Dulcich was an immediate standout as a rookie despite missing a lot of time due to a hamstring injury. He caught 33 passes for 441 yards and two touchdowns in 2022, which is above-average production for a rookie player at the position that only played in 10 total contests. When paired next to KJ Hamler in the formation, Dulcich was a deadly threat down the field, catching multiple passes for more than 20 yards.

Even though Dulcich is an inconsistent blocker going into his second season as a pro, he's poised to take on a major in the Payton offense: the “Joker.”

“The ‘Joker’ player for us is not a receiver,” Payton explained back during OTAs. “It’s either a running back or a tight end with exceptional ball skills, and then you can work matchups. It's either a running back or a tight end with exceptional ball skills and then you can work matchups. We've had that at the running back [position]. Reggie Bush was the ‘Joker,’ Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara. Those were all unique players, not just in the running game, but they had passing game skill sets that allowed you to do multiple things, and I think Greg does, too."

While Dulcich was a big-time favorite of Hackett, the young tight end has made a big splash for the new head man in charge. If Dulcich can fill that Joker role and become the next dynamic playmaker in Payton's offense, Paton may see his seat cool off significantly.

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3. Signing LB Alex Singleton 

Much like the desperate need to find a competent right tackle for much of the past decade, Denver has struggled to find competent linebacker play on defense, especially when covering the tight end position. While this is no slight to Josey Jewell, who has been one of the most consistent players on the roster for the duration of his career to date, finding a free agent steal in Singleton in 2022 improved what was a much-maligned position group.

A former Philadelphia Eagles leading tackler, Singleton signed in Denver on a very team-friendly one-year deal worth $1.1 million in guaranteed money and another $750,000 in playing time incentives.

Singleton, who was expected to be a core special teams player heading into training camp, played in all 17 games (12 starts) for the Broncos after Jonas Griffith dislocated his elbow on the first snap of the first preseason game. And Singleton's play on the field was good enough to warrant signing him back to a three-year, $18 million deal this past offseason.

Singleton led the Broncos with 163 tackles, forced a fumble, and knocked away three passes in 2022. Those 163 combined tackles were also good for the fifth-most in the NFL last season.

A value signing turned core player, Singleton may very well be the best overall free agent signing of the Paton tenure to date.

2. 2021 NFL Draft Class

Even if you have an issue with drafting Surtain over Fields with his first selection, what Paton was able to accomplish throughout the rest of his first draft as a general manager is nothing short of spectacular. If not for a pair of injuries, five out of his first six draft picks would be starting players for this roster, with the sixth seeing a lot of time as a rotational piece on the defensive line. 

We’ve already discussed Surtain, so let’s examine the rest of them.

Javonte Williams, who Paton traded up to acquire, would be the team’s starting running back if he hadn’t suffered a major knee injury in Week 4 last season. There's still a chance that Williams could return for the beginning of the season, though it is much more likely that he comes back after the first four weeks.

Third-round pick Quinn Meinerz has the starting right guard slot already secured and is one of the league’s brightest up-and-coming players at the position. Baron Browning, another third-round selection, figured to become one of the starting edge defenders for the Broncos’ defense but had to have arthroscopic knee surgery earlier this offseason. It’s questionable when Browning will be ready to go, but he should fill in the rotation rather nicely when healthy and looks to be a future piece to build around should he stay healthy.

Fifth-round pick Caden Sterns is poised to take over a starting safety spot next to Justin Simmons this season despite the return of Kareem Jackson to the locker room. Sterns, an incredibly versatile and physical safety who plays well in the box, is a perfect fit for what Vance Joseph wants to do defensively.

The only player of the top six selections without a starting role thus far is fourth-rounder Eyioma Uwazurike, and he figures to be the first player on the field when the team needs a pass-rushing boost along the interior. Uwazurike possesses incredible length, an explosive first step off of the snap, and an uncanny ability to get skinny in the gap as a pass rusher, making him a quality piece for the defensive line rotation.

Adding to the list of major contributors from the 2021 class is edge defender Jonathon Cooper. While not an incredibly flashy player, Cooper is the dependable run defender with enough juice as a pass rusher that any team would want to have in their edge rotation. One could argue that Cooper was the team’s best edge defender after Bradley Chubb was traded to the Miami Dolphins.

1. Trading For Russell Wilson

This could be determined as a stretch, especially considering how poorly Russ played last season under Hackett. It could also be a stretch considering how much Paton had to give up to acquire Wilson. 

But this decision and how it plays out in 2023 could be — and probably will be — the single deciding factor in determining Paton’s future with the Broncos.

Starting at the beginning, Paton hired Hackett as a potential lure for Aaron Rodgers to come to Denver. When Rodgers chose to stay in Green Bay, Paton pivoted to his second option in Wilson, giving up a pair of first and second-round draft picks as well as three former starters in the aforementioned Lock, Noah Fant, and Shelby Harris. 

At the time of the trade, Paton was lauded for landing a franchise quarterback despite the price as it launched the Broncos back into relevancy, potentially even into the Super Bowl conversation. Fast forward to the end of the 2022 season, and the future selections that Paton had expected to be in the tail end of the first and second rounds ended up being in the top 10 and top 40, respectively, making this move look dramatically worse than it was back in March of 2022, especially on the heels of how poorly Wilson debuted as a Bronco.

Where this move could end up saving Paton’s job is if Wilson can bounce back to his form circa 2020, where he played at an MVP-caliber level, and become the quarterback Paton thought he was acquiring. Wilson unquestionably had his worst season as a pro in 2022, looking lost within the offense he "co-authored" with Hackett and lacking the explosive athleticism and escapability that made him an elite player in the past. Wilson battled injuries for the second consecutive season, something he had avoided in his decorated career prior.

But under a new head coach with a no-nonsense mentality and a firm grasp of the organization, getting Wilson back to his Pro Bowl form of old may not be too difficult. It may take close to 4,000 yards, a three-to-one TD-to-INT ratio, and a playoff berth to get there, but one outlier season that is the worst of his career shouldn't be the determining factor in how the trade itself is viewed.

Should Wilson play at a high level and fight off the demons of the not-so-distant past, Paton could be granted safe passage to 2024 and the foreseeable future as the general manager that acquired a franchise quarterback.

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