Understanding the Risks of Broncos Drafting Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker

If Hendon Hooker falls to the third round, what should the Denver Broncos do?

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker was playing his way into first-round consideration until an untimely knee injury in November dropped his projected selection to Day 2. With that said, there are rumors that he could still be taken early in the 2023 NFL draft.

Some say it could be the first round, but others report that Hooker will last until the third round. If he does last that long, should the Denver Broncos be interested?

The Broncos need to plan for the future in case Russell Wilson cannot rekindle the elite status he had before the blockbuster trade that brought him to the Mile High City. If Hooker slides to the Broncos' selection (pick 67 is the first pick), as some analysts have projected, it might be a fortuitous turn of events. 

However, even if so, history shows that there is reason to believe the Broncos should be wary of selecting Hooker. He turned 25 years old in January, and regardless of what he could do on the college field last season, that fact alone doesn’t bode well. There have been zero skill-position players drafted from 2009 to 2019 who turned 25 years old prior to the draft and became an impact player in the NFL. 

There have been 14 players drafted at the positions of quarterback, running back, fullback, wide receiver, and tight end at 25 years or older, and while some have been primary starters, none have entered into impact player status.

That is a small sample size. When including all positions, only two have become impact players, and one of them was a kicker. Matt Gay was selected to one Pro Bowl, and Sebastian Volmer received a single All-Pro Second Team award.

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Technically speaking, the Broncos’ own Garett Bolles was 24 years old when he was drafted and turned 25 about one month after the draft, but even if he is included, that still leaves very few impact-type players who were drafted at an “advanced age.” 

The issue with Hooker is twofold: the difficulty for those aged 25 or greater to have an impact in the NFL as described above, and also how soon he would be able to play effectively.

Coming off an ACL injury, Hooker will still need time to work back into healthy play on the football field, essentially “red-shirting” his rookie season. Then, because of the offense he played in at Tennessee, he will need to develop his game for the NFL. That means that by the time he's ready to take the reins full-time, he'll be 27 years old — at the earliest.  

Even though quarterbacks are lasting longer in the NFL with the rules laid out to protect them, drafting Hooker would be a risk. The Broncos have needs in other areas, and they don’t have many picks. 

That combination of constraints doesn’t afford the Broncos much chance to select a luxury pick. Using a selection on a player who wouldn't contribute until 2025 is a luxury the team cannot afford this season.

Chances are, the Broncos won’t have to make that decision when they're on the clock, as Hooker will likely be off the board, but if they are in that position, the front office should be careful about selecting an older prospect.

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