How Broncos Can Not Only Clinch Playoffs, but Improve AFC Seeding

The Denver Broncos control their playoff destiny entering the final four weeks of the regular season.

Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) prepares to throw the ball in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With the Denver Broncos sitting at 8-5 coming out of the bye week and with four games left, they control their own destiny when it comes to making the playoffs. However, even with a win this week, the Broncos could still have more at stake.

Not only are the Broncos looking to secure a Wild Card spot, they could go further and improve beyond the No. 7 seed, which they currently hold. The next four weeks will determine not only the Broncos' playoff fate but the team's seeding.

Let's examine each of the four games approaching, what they mean in terms of the playoff race, and what the Broncos can do to not only clinch, but improve their AFC seeding.

Week 15: Indianapolis Colts

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) signals during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The Colts are technically still in the playoff hunt, but if the Broncos win this Sunday, it would be a major step toward them securing a playoff spot, while the Colts' playoff hopes would grow razor-thin.

The Colts are a league-average team but have shown they're capable of keeping games close and even beating better teams (they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4, for example). It's not a given the Broncos will win Sunday, and if they get a big lead, they can't afford to let up.

But if the Broncos take care of business, their playoff odds greatly improve, to the point that they are almost assuredly in, even if they don't officially clinch a playoff spot. Even so, there's still more at stake after this game.

Week 16: at Los Angeles Chargers

Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) calls out in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Earlier this season, the Broncos lost to the Chargers in a game in which Patrick Surtain II exited in the first quarter because of a concussion. Losing Surtain impacted the Broncos defense, which didn't settle down until the second half. The Broncos offense didn't have a good first half and needed a late rally just to keep the final score close.

Much has changed since that time. The Chargers are currently the No. 6 seed for the playoffs, but the Broncos winning in Week 15 would give them a chance to do better than the No. 7 seed, depending on tiebreakers.

The Baltimore Ravens hold the No. 5 seed and have wins over both the Broncos and Chargers, but strength-of-victory could work in the Broncos' favor, depending on what happens in the remaining games. Regardless, in order for the Broncos to have a chance to do better than the No. 7 seed, they need a win over the Chargers.

And just as importantly, a win over the Chargers, paired with a win over the Colts, just might be enough for the Broncos to secure a playoff spot.

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Week 17: at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) practices his throw before Dallas Cowboys during Monday Night Football at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Monday, December 9, 2024. / Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bengals have one of the better offenses in the NFL and Joe Burrow is playing at a level that would put him in the MVP conversation, except for one thing: Cincinnati is 5-8, thanks to its inability to close out games, primarily because of bad defense.

By the time the Broncos face the Bengals, the latter team might be out of the running for a playoff spot, or at the very least, needing a win to keep faint playoff hopes alive. The Broncos, meanwhile, could still have a chance to improve their seeding.

Weeks 14 and 15 are the clear "must-win" games to ensure a playoff spot, but if the Broncos want to maximize their chances of improving their seed, they need a win over the Bengals as well.

Week 18: Kansas City Chiefs

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) talks with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Every Broncos fan remembers the last time the two teams met. The Broncos had a chance to win but the Chiefs blocked Wil Lutz's would-be game-clinching field-goal attempt as time expired. The Chiefs have won multiple close games, sometimes in the most unexpected ways.

The question here is whether the Chiefs rest their starters or not in the season finale. It's not yet a given they will, though, because they still have to play the Steelers in Week 17 and Pittsburgh will need that win to have a shot at least the No. 2 seed.

Even if the Chiefs reach the point that they can rest starters in Week 17, the Broncos could still be playing to lock down playoff seeding. We'll know more about this game once things develop over the next three weeks, but you can't yet rule out something being on the line beyond the chance to beat an AFC West rival.

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