How Drew Lock Can Solve Broncos' Identity Crisis

The Broncos are suffering from an identity crisis. Drew Lock gives the team a lightning rod to coalesce around.

Welp, this got out of hand quickly this year, didn’t it? After a few seasons of the Denver Broncos starting off strong in the month of September only to fall flat as the season progressed, this team is one of the few remaining ‘defeated’ teams in the NFL yet to win a single football game. 

The optimists will yell that the Broncos could easily have been 3-1 if the ball bounced a few different ways, while the pessimists will counter with the old Bill Parcell cliche 'you are what your record says you are'. The truth lies in the middle.

The Broncos are indeed 0-4 and not a great team in 2019. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise given the state of the roster coming off of two poor seasons, new schemes across the offense and defense, and new leadership from the coaching staff to the quarterback position. All the signs pointed towards a transition season in 2019 with a puncher’s chance at relevance. 

The formula for competition seemed simple; continue to ride a talented defense, bring in one of the best defensive minds in football in Vic Fangio, and field a competent offense orchestrated by a rising offensive coordinator in Rich Scangarello, quarterbacked by former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco. That was the ‘plan’ but in the words of Woody Allen, 'if you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans'.

Flacco Is The Bridge

The offense, despite its struggles to sustain drives and finish in the endzone, has been functioning about as well as anyone with reasonable expectations could have hoped. Flacco is not a franchise quarterback and is very much dependent on his offensive line and weapons around him, but he has been a shot in the arm to the offense overall from a competency perspective. 

Flacco has been almost exactly what the Broncos could have hoped for — a stabilizing presence running the offense at an efficient rate, moving the football, and doing enough to be complementary to a good defense. Unfortunately, this is not a good defense any longer. 

Flacco is simply a band-aid of mediocrity as Denver continues wandering the desert, looking for a franchise quarterback. Flacco is not the answer as much as he is not the solution.

But at least the Broncos' passing game is no longer replete with massive incompetence, constantly going three-and-out. The offense is moving the ball well, controlling the time of possession, as exciting young pieces start to show their talent in an emerging young offensive core. If one were to pair the 2019 Broncos’ offense along with that of the 2016 defense, this team would be legitimate playoff contenders.

A Defense In Regression

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Unfortunately for the Broncos, the defense has fallen off rapidly. What was once a top unit across the league, through a quarter of the season, the Broncos' defense is one of the bottom-tier units in the NFL, ranking 27th according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. 

There are a few solid reasons for this massive drop-off. First, of course, is the scheme change. From Wade Phillips/Joe Woods heavy usage of cover 1 man concepts, to Vic Fangio’s quarters (among other changes), the Broncos’ current personnel do not match what the new head coach has typically liked to do on defense. 

From playing the sub-300-pound, short-armed Shelby Harris at nose tackle, to the lack of speed at linebacker, to the lack of depth at cornerback, the Broncos aren’t built currently for Fangio’s more mentally demanding defense.

On top of this, the Broncos have not been investing in the defense. During the Manning years, GM John Elway used a lot of high-valued assets on the defense to help balance the roster. From free agency to early draft capital, Elway spent and spent on defense. 

This led to the Broncos’ defense rising in the 2014-2016 years, all while the offense saw a massive dip in talent and production from 2015 and post-Manning especially. Losing Manning, of course, will cause any team to drop off offensively, regardless of Peyton's faculties diminishing rapidly in his last season, but on top of how the Broncos have used and developed resources, the offense floundered while the defense remained strong. 

Given the rise of the offense and the fall of the defense, the 2019 Broncos could very well be in the midst of an identity crisis. Is this an offensive team? Or a defensive team?

The Pendulum Has Already Swung Towards Offense

Over the past few seasons, in order to refortify the offense in life after Manning, Elway turned around his draft strategy, and instead of investing resources on defense like he had been, he turned to the offensive side of the ball. 

From Paxton Lynch, Garett Bolles, Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman, Noah Fant, Dalton Risner, and Drew Lock, the Broncos' early-round draft choices post-Manning have been replete with offensive players as the team tried to help resuscitate an offense that was bleeding out on the field week after week. 

The offense really does seem to be finally turning things around and showing encouraging promise, but perhaps it's coming at a cost to the defense. Such is life in a salary cap league. 

If one area of the ball is strong, the other is weak. By the time the resources used to help the weak side start to pay off, the strong unit has regressed back to the mean.

Such is the state of the 2019 Broncos. Bringing in a defensive mastermind head coach paired with a defense with fading defense, as well as an offense that is showing real signs of life going forward and possessing some true building blocks to lean on going forward. 

The playoffs are an astronomical long shot for Denver this season so the question becomes 1 what is the best way to turn this ship around? 

Continue the current offensive rebuild? Or help refortify a sinking defense?

Of course, the answer depends on specifics such as what players are available and fit, but it really should come down to one thing.

The best chance for the Broncos to escape the cellar of irrelevance and jump up to the next, middling level of NFL purgatory is stabilizing the quarterback position with a true franchise-caliber player. The Broncos best chance at that guy? 

Drew Lock Is The Key

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Simply put, it’s the second of the team's two second-round picks — quarterback Drew Lock out of Missouri. There is a sharp drop-off in terms of ‘hitting’ on the quarterback outside of the top-10 of the first round, and there's a drop-off going from first-round quarterbacks to non-first round quarterbacks, but the answer is still the same. 

The best chance for the Broncos to become relevant again and quickly is if Drew Lock can prove to be the answer.

For young quarterbacks in today’s NFL, whether or not they are ‘immediately great’ isn’t simply based on their own merit as an individual player, but as much about how a team sets them up for success. Jared Goff went from looking like a massive bust under Jeff Fisher to a solid franchise quarterback under Sean McVay as the offense was built up around him. 

Carson Wentz has been afforded multiple opportunities and time to make mistakes and grow while being surrounded by a great play-caller and scheme, as well as having talent across his offensive line and at the skill positions. Fourth-round pick Dak Prescott always showed flashes but was inconsistent.

The Dallas Cowboys had a great offensive line and running back in place, but over the last year, bringing on wide receiver Amari Cooper and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has made Prescott look like a viable MVP candidate in 2019. 

Heck, Patrick Mahomes perhaps walked into one of the best situations in football with offensive mastermind Andy Reid and a bevy of diverse weapons in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and a solid offensive line. 

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Building A Nest

These teams all built ‘nests’ for their young quarterbacks, allowing them to go out there and lean on talent around them while they made mistakes and grew as starters. 

Of course, a lot comes down to that quarterback as an individual, but building a nest is imperative for that quarterback to succeed long-term in the NFL, both from quarterback-friendly play calling and scheme to the talent surrounding them.

Based on these past examples, it seems obvious that the Broncos becoming relevant in the NFL sooner rather than later, means the defense will have to suffer in the short term. The Broncos do have the likes of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb going forward, and there should be improvements as the defense gains more experience in the new scheme and Fangio finds better scheme fits for his defense, but Elway should not panic in the face of the 2019 defensive regression and instead stay the course with continuing to build the offense.

The Broncos, likely picking top-10 in the 2020 NFL Draft, will have multiple picks in the top-100 and some cap room to help reshape this team once again in the upcoming offseason to better fit the current vision of the team. However, in order to empower Drew Lock and give him the best chance to become a franchise quarterback, Elway should focus in on the offensive line and pass weapons. 

True, Garett Bolles has played better over the last two weeks, but given his inconsistencies, the team shouldn’t count on him going forward, let alone consider using the fifth-year option on him. If the Broncos have a shot to nab a true stabilizing left tackle handpicked by Mike Munchak, the team should jump.

Given that NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler had three left tackles in his top-8 in his latest big board in 4) Tristan Wirfs, Iowa, 5) Andrew Thomas, Georgia, and 8) Alex Leatherwood Alabama, the Broncos will have the chance to get a decade-long stabilizing piece on the offensive line to pair with Dalton Risner, as well an improving Connor McGovern and Elijah Wilkinson as well, as Ja'Wuan James will return (still only 25 years old). 

The Broncos could also look at Wisconsin’s Tyler Biadasz or Oklahoma’s Creed Humphrey, but tackle should be prioritized over the interior.

If not offensive line, then Elway and company would be wise to consider adding a wide receiver to the fold. Given how the game is evolving into more of a quick-pass/weapons-in-space-style of football, players who can create in space are in higher demand than ever. 

Given the end is neigh for Emmanuel Sanders’ career in Denver, adding a weapon opposite of emerging X-receiver Courtland Sutton should be a key priority in building that nest for the young quarterback. Sure, DaeSean Hamilton and Juwann Winfree can be viable options but neither have shown truly dynamic ability to date, especially in the speed or explosiveness department. 

To be honest, a trio of Sutton, Hamilton, and Winfree would compete for the slowest starting wide receiver trio in the entire NFL.

The X-receiver position is covered for the foreseeable future, but the Broncos need to consider talent that can play from either the slot or Z-receiver position (much like Sanders can, but at 33, this is about the future). Whether it be a true speed threat such as Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III or TCU’s Jalen Reagor, a versatile route runner with incredible yards-after-catch ability in Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, or just a versatile YAC tank that can play a number of wide receiver spots such as Colorado’s Laviska Shenault, Jr., another weapon to replace Sanders is an absolute must for this offense to improve. 

Sutton is great and emerging as a wide receiver one and Hamilton and Winfree have potential, but the roster needs juice in space and another creator in the passing game.

Pick Your Poison

People will scream about the linebacker position. They will scream about cornerback. They will scream about the defensive line. They will scream about the defense. Just like they were screaming about the quarterback position, the offensive line, and the overall offense. 

Unfortunately, no NFL team has All-Pros across the board. It’s a hyper-competitive league with a salary cap. Instead of being reactionary to the defense’s slow start, Elway should maintain the course and continue fortifying the offense. The Broncos’ best chance towards relevance is if they can find their franchise quarterback to help lead them.

The Takeaway

This team has a promising young arm in Drew Lock. Empower him to be that quarterback. 

Build a unit that can help him and let him grow during his developmental years, and the Broncos can reap the benefits of his emergence for a decade. The defense may slide towards the mean in the short-term, but Denver’s best chance for long-term sustainable success is to continue building the nest for their young upside investment at quarterback.

Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.