How the Broncos can attack the Seahawks' defensive weaknesses
The Denver Broncos invade the city of Seattle on Thursday to take on the Seahawks for their second preseason contest of the season. Preseason games are a “trial run” of sorts and carry no weight for the regular season.
However, they are meaningful to many players and some fans. For football analysts they are another chance to hone skills and apply new methods. In that vein, here is a trial run to showcase a small taste of how data visualization analytics will be used frequently during the regular season in articles and videos by yours truly.
3 weaknesses
Based on last season, the Seahawks have three glaring weaknesses on defense. Defending the end-around over the right end, passes to the short left and passes to the deep middle. The Broncos can exploit all three.
First the end-around. Taking a quick glance at the analytics, it looks like the Seahawks are stout against the run except when teams attack by rushing around the right end as appears in the image below (the orange circles are the yards per carry against the Seahawks defense and the blue is the league average for all teams).
Nine yards per carry against Seattle versus 5.4 for the league is a hefty increase. If one were to just look at that and call it good, you would be missing out on some important detail.
Digging deeper into the analytics, the Seahawks are somewhat susceptible to the run when teams target that area with running backs. However, by looking at specific incidents the average of nine yards per carry is significantly impacted by 12 plays where a wide receiver received the handoff and ran an end-around play.
Of those 12 plays, teams averaged 14.4 yards per attempt and were only stopped once for negative yards. Three plays went for 25 yards or more with Robert Woods toting the ball for a 56-yard scamper. This play is effective against the Seahawks defense. See below image.
If this was a regular-season game, the Broncos’ Emmanuel Sanders would be a great choice for this play. Since it is preseason, it would be good to see what DaeSean Hamilton could do with the ball in his hands or a speedster like Brendan Langley.
The passing game
The Seahawks pass defense was not the Seahawks pass defense of old, but they did perform at average or better than the average of all other teams except when passes went to the short left or deep middle.
Completion percent to the short left against the Seahawks was 77%. A seven-point increase versus the league average (excluding Seahawks). Yards per attempt was 7.3, a full yard increase versus the league average.
For passes to the deep middle, the Seahawks allowed a completion percentage of 54% and 16.5 yards per attempt. Both are significant increases versus the league average.
Their interception rate was also less than the league average, meaning opposing teams can target that area with less risk of throwing an interception. See below images for comparison.
Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton both caught deep balls to the middle of the field against the Seahawks last season. Niners' TE George Kittle took three short left passes and turned them into 48 yards gained.
Panthers' RB Christian McCaffrey turned screens into approximately eight yards per reception and Denver’s own Phillip Lindsay averaged over 15 yards per reception out of the backfield against the Seahawks in Week 1 when he caught passes to the short left.
What it means
This would be a great time to test Drew Lock’s ability to throw the deep ball by targeting the middle of the field. His success rate would increase since the Seahawks have a weakness there, which would help his confidence.
It would also be a good time to get Noah Fant into a groove with some short passes to the left of the field. He could take a page out of Kittle’s book and turn them into long gains with his speed.
Lastly, get some screen reps for newly acquired pass-catching RB Theo Riddick.
Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis and deeper dives coming this regular season.
Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasHallNFL.
