Insider's Mock Draft Sketches Broncos' QB Priorities in Round 1

The Denver Broncos have a massive area of need come draft time later this month.

Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton during the NFL Scouting / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a funny little saying when it comes to covering professional sports, ‘watch what they do, not what they say.’

Sometimes, there are leaks in team organizations that eventually make their way into the raceway avenues of social media and are chalked up to chatter and rumors leaving many to wonder if there was ever a shred of truth to the stories.

But that’s not the case since Sean Payton arrived with the Denver Broncos approximately one year ago. Nobody, outside of Payton himself knows what the Broncos will do in the upcoming NFL Draft with the 12th-overall pick.

We’ll have our answers to that question in less than three weeks, but for now, there’s not a lot to go on during the ‘season of lies’ other than the rumor mill and mock drafts from the experts.

9News’ Mike Klis, who has covered the Broncos as an insider for decades, releases his only mock draft each season, leaving fans and analysts alike to debate the pros and cons of potential new players for Denver. But when Klis’ mock draft was released this week, it left Broncos Country with more questions than answers.

“Daniels and Maye would be the choice if the Broncos trade up – way up,” Klis revealed. “They probably would have to reach Washington’s second pick for Daniels and no later than number three New England or four Arizona to get Maye. Given the Broncos, for a third consecutive year, are thin in upper-round draft picks, this is not a likely scenario. Payton, though, seems like the type who will at least try to take some swings.”

The potential cost to move from 12 to the top-five could be very expensive in the form of at least two first-round picks, future upper to mid-round picks, CB Patrick Surtain II, WR Courtland Sutton, or another combination of capital between players and picks.

I’ve remained bullish on LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy as my top two QB prospects that best fit Sean Payton’s offense. However, there’s a realistic possibility that neither man is at pick 12 due to a competitive market, meaning that the Broncos could have a hard time finding a trade partner in the top ten if they can’t get in the top five.

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“If the Broncos make a more modest trade up to, say, the number seven pick area, it might be for McCarthy,” explained Klis. “If they stand pat at number 12 or trade back, it figures to be for Nix or Michael Penix Jr., who visited Broncos’ headquarters Tuesday.”

Broncos Country seems somewhat divided when drafting a first-round quarterback as the remaining portion of the roster has major holes in the trenches. Remember, the probability of hitting on a first-round QB is very low compared to players at other positions of need for Denver.

“Trade back from 12 to the 18-24 range, where the Broncos could pick up a day two draft selection (second or third round) and package that pick to move back into the later part of the first round for their quarterback.”

In that scenario, Mike had the Broncos select FSU pass rusher Jared Verse or Texas DL Byron Murphy in the 18 to 24 range of the first round. Recent mock drafts from local and national analysts have suggested that Oregon QB Bo Nix and Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. could sustain a first-round draft day plummet into the second round of day two’s televised coverage.

While I don’t subscribe to the notion that Payton will idly sit on his hands and entertain the potential value of trading back, crazier things have happened on draft day in the NFL.

Expect the debates and mock drafts to continue the next few weeks while the Broncos remain radio silent on the QB front at team headquarters. It’s truly anyone’s guess as to what Sean Payton will do in the first round of the 2024 draft, which is equally exciting as it is nerve-wracking.

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