Predicting if Broncos Pick Up Jerry Jeudy's Fifth-Year Option

The Denver Broncos have a big decision to make with Jerry Jeudy.

After paying Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton, the Denver Broncos are in a tight spot when it comes to budgeting for the wide receiver room. The Broncos now have another decision to make, and they have to make it by May 1, 2023: Does Denver pick up Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year option or decline it?

Jeudy is under contract for the 2023 season, and the fifth-year option will determine his status for 2024. Denver can pick it up for another cost-controlled year or decline it and make him an unrestricted free agent after the 2023 season. 

In his three years in the NFL, Jeudy has caught 157 passes for 2,295 yards and nine touchdowns, with six coming in 2022. His performance hasn't consistently been what the Broncos hoped when they selected him No. 15 overall in the 2020 NFL draft, but he has had multiple flashes of brilliance before starting to emerge in 2022. 

The Broncos have options with what to do with the option. For the 2023 season, Jeudy will cost just north of $4.8 million against the salary cap. If the Broncos pick up the option, he will cost $12,987,000 million against the 2024 salary cap. 

Denver could easily handle the contracts of Patrick, Sutton, and Jeudy for the 2023 season. However, the trio has a combined cap hit of over $34 million. 

If that is too much, the Broncos could explore trading one of Sutton or Patrick, but with Sean Payton and trying to fix things around Russell Wilson, it may not be a good idea to move on from one of your top-three receivers, especially after the quality of depth was an issue in the 2022 season. 

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If trading one of the two is a plan, they would still cost against the Broncos' salary cap. For Sutton, he would only free up a little under $6.8M while still costing nearly $11.5M in dead salary with a pre-June 1 trade. However, post-June 1 would spread the dead salary over 2023 and 2024 but free up a little over $14.4M for the 2023 salary cap. 

Patrick will still cost a little over $6.1M in dead salary while freeing up a little under $5M with a pre-June 1 trade. Waiting until after June 1 would spread the dead cap over the next two years while freeing up $8M in 2023. 

But 2023 isn't the year to focus on when it comes to budgeting for the wide receiver position. Jeudy is still cheap for the year, no matter what they decide on the option. So instead, the issue is 2024, where moving on from Patrick and/or Sutton becomes significantly more manageable and cost-efficient. Also, waiting until 2024 gives Payton and Wilson the necessary weapons to turn this around. 

If the Broncos pick up the option on Jeudy's contract, which should be a no-brainer, then 2024 is the year to look at. With Sutton's contract, doing anything (cut or trade) pre-June 1 in 2024 is okay, as it frees up $9.675M with $7.65M dead. However, a post-June 1 designation frees up $13.5M, spreading the dead cap over 2024 and 2025. 

The timing doesn't matter for Patrick, as 2024 is the final year of his deal. So Denver could cut him or trade him saving $9.9M with a little over $3M in dead cap. That also limits things to cutting or trading them and not even looking at possible extensions or restructuring. 

With the Broncos' financial situation, picking up Jeudy's option seems fait accompli. In fact, it is something that should be done immediately. 

However, due to changes in how the league determines the options, Jeudy has the basic amount on his option, with no Pro Bowls or playtime increases (unlike Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk). Jeudy seemed to have things click for him in 2022, and it's also worth betting on him for the 2024 season. 

Payton has shown he is adept and working to his receivers' strengths, and he could create some huge opportunities for Jeudy to continue his climb. Compared to the rest of the NFL, with receivers currently under contract for 2024, the fifth-year option would make Jeudy the 26th highest-paid receiver. 

So again, it is a no-brainer for the Broncos to pick up the option. 

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