John Elway's 7-Worst Free-Agent Moves as Broncos GM Revealed

John Elway has had his successes in free agency since arriving in the Broncos front office back in 2011 but he's had his fair share of whiffs, too. Here are his seven-worst decisions.

It remains to be seen what will happen with the personnel moves Denver Broncos GM John Elway made in free agency this past offseason. There were the moves he actually made, such as signing Graham Glasgow and Melvin Gordon Jr. in free agency, and the moves he was expected to make but didn’t, notably not coming to terms on a new contract with Justin Simmons.

It remains to be seen what the impact of those decisions will be, but there are other decisions Elway has made in the past that can be judged on their merits.

Today, I’m going to examine the best and worst moves that Elway has made in free agency over the past few years. I’ll list the top-seven for each, because we all know what the significance of the No. 7 is with regard to Elway.

The focus will be on free-agent signings, player extensions, and trades, not draft picks — meaning you won’t see the likes of Paxton Lynch or Garett Bolles appearing on this list. I will also focus on only those moves in which we have some sample size and retrospective scope with which to judge — thus any moves made in 2020 won’t be listed because we don’t yet know what the impact will be.

Here are the seven-worst moves that Elway has made in free agency.

7. Using a right-of-first-refusal tender on RB C.J. Anderson (2016)

The Broncos had limited cap space in the 2016 offseason and had a major contract negotiation to consider for Von Miller, the recipient of the exclusive franchise tag. Elway thus made a few moves coming out of Super Bowl 50's triumph that appeared to be about clearing the way to pay Miller.

That included giving Anderson the right-of-first-refusal restricted free agent tender, which allowed any team to sign him to an offer sheet, but provided no draft pick compensation if the Broncos declined to match the offer.

Then the Miami Dolphins — who had former Broncos OC Adam Gase as their head coach — signed Anderson to an offer sheet for four years at $18 million. The Dolphins structured it to include a $5M roster bonus in 2016.

Elway decided to match the offer, which meant he paid more in 2016 than he would have on the second-round RFA tender, which was about $2.5M at the time. Though Anderson was solid in terms of production, if Elway had hoped to save some cash that year, things didn’t work out as he expected.

6. Extending S Darian Stewart (2016)

Let’s make one thing clear: When Elway added safety Stewart in free agency in 2015, it was a great move, in which the GM gave him a two-year deal for just $4.25M. It was a reasonable deal for a solid depth player with no starting experience.

Stewart proved his worth, but he was the type of player that was best to allow to depart once his deal expired. Instead, Elway opted to “keep the band together” and gave Stewart a four-year, $28M extension midway through the 2016 season.

While Stewart played well in 2016, he didn’t match the level of play he showcased in his first two years. He was a cap casualty in 2019.

5. Signing OT Ja’Wuan James (2019)

The right tackle position is one Elway hasn’t had the most success with addressing in most years. He thought he had the guy in James, who played his first five seasons in the NFL with the Miami Dolphins.

James received a four-year, $51M contract that made him one of the highest-paid right tackles in the NFL. The deal included $27M in full guarantees.

But James took almost no snaps in his first season with the team (63 total), thanks to a knee injury. The Broncos knew about his health issues when they signed him, which made his deal all that more risky.

Of course, James still has a chance to prove his worthiness if he stays healthy and plays well for the next two seasons. But if not, this deal could go to the top of the list among Elway’s worst free agency decisions.

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4. Signing QB Case Keenum (2018)

The Broncos were in the market for a quarterback in 2018 and there were several players available, though they came with a degree of risk. In the end, the Broncos went with Keenum, who was coming off a good season where he helped lead the Minnesota Vikings to a Division crown and an NFC Championship Game appearance.

Keenum got a two-year deal worth $36M with $25M fully guaranteed. But he didn’t reach the level of play expected from him in the 2018 season.

Granted, then-OC Bill Musgrave seldom played to Keenum’s strengths. But it’s fair to say more was expected from Keenum than he provided and certainly he didn’t prove to be the answer.

3. Trading for QB Joe Flacco (2019)

Even though Keenum didn’t meet expectations, it might have been fine for the Broncos to ride it out with him for 2019, then ensure they draft a quarterback that year.

But while Keenum might not have been the best fit for the scheme that then-OC Rich Scangarello would run, Flacco didn’t really provide an upgrade either.

Flacco had a stronger arm than Keenum, true, and could stretch the field. But he was a quarterback who depended a lot on having a quality offensive line — and between injuries and inconsistent play, the Broncos' O-line never reached a level to make Flacco comfortable.

The end result was Flacco faltered under the pressure. A neck injury ended his season after Week 8 and the Broncos eventually went with Drew Lock as the starter, making Flacco expendable in 2020.

2. Signing OT Donald Stephenson (2016)

It seems Elway has had more trouble with finding a quality right tackle than about any other position. But his bigger problem has been committing a lot of money to a veteran player who wasn’t really worth it.

Stephenson had just a handful of starts in his four years with the Kansas City Chiefs. But Elway paid him like a starter, giving him nearly $15M over three seasons with $6M fully guaranteed.

Stephenson struggled throughout 2016 and so the Broncos renegotiated his 2017 salary, which helped soften the blow. He became the team’s swing tackle, earning $2.5M, and actually had a couple of solid games when called upon to start.

But it was a lesson Elway should have taken about giving starter money to a player with a small sample size of work. However, he didn’t learn that lesson as evidenced by the worst free agency move he ever made.

1. Signing OT Menelik Watson (2017)

Rather than be patient with addressing the right tackle position, Elway went right back to free agency and gave another player with a small sample size of starts a multi-year deal for starter money.

Watson, who spent his first four seasons with the Raiders, got a three-year, $18.35M contract from the Broncos. He earned $5.5M in his first season, but his play was awful, and he got injured midway through the season.

Watson postponed his surgery until weeks before the 2018 league year began, forcing the Broncos to commit to his 2018 salary. The plan appeared to be moving Watson to guard, but he had more health issues and was placed on injured reserve.

The Broncos cut him a few weeks later and treated his salary as sunk costs. It was the end to the most puzzling decision Elway has made in free agency since joining the Broncos front office.

• Stay tuned, as the next article (on Wednesday) will break down Elway's seven best free-agent moves. 

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