3 Keys to Broncos Winning Out & Punching a Playoff Ticket
Entering Week 15, the Denver Broncos are in the postseason hunt but their playoff hopes are precariously thin. With a record of 7-6, Denver's playoff probability sits at 0.32.
The Broncos can control their own destiny thanks to all four of their remaining games coming against AFC opponents. If Denver does make the postseason, it will be because these three achievements were unlocked.
Bradley Chubb Makes an Impact (Finally)
Chubb has been a nonfactor since rejoining the team in Week 12 after a lengthy stint on injured reserve. Down the stretch, he has to play like the former top-5 draft pick that he was.
Top-5 in the draft is the sweet spot for finding impact players and the unfortunate truth is, Chubb hasn't been that this season. He hasn't lived up to his potential over tenure with the Broncos mostly due to injury.
Injuries have rendered many players with huge potential into NFL busts. To avoid that label, Chubb has to find a way to make an impact. If he can, he will contribute to the Broncos' playoff aspirations and turn around a lackluster pass rush.
Von Miller did just that in 2015 and was forever immortalized in Broncos lore as the team romped to a Super Bowl 50 championship. There can be no injury excuses — it's time for Chubb to assume the mantle of an edge rusher who changes games.
Let Running Game be the Star
The Broncos have had more success this season when they've pounded the rock with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. To ensure victory, Denver must stick with the running game the last four games. There is a lot of evidence that it leads to success.
Not only is there ample empirical data that NFL teams win when they stick with the running game, but the Broncos' upcoming opponents are all susceptible to a good rushing attack. The Cincinnati Bengals, look stout against the rush, that is until you dig a little deeper.
Cincy's average yards per game against the run is a metric that's been heavily weighted by facing teams that have not been good at rushing the ball or opponents that have given up on the run. Six opponents that had success against the Bengals on the ground either rank in the top-10 in rushing, didn’t abandon the run, or both. The only outlier is the Minnesota Vikings.
The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers are giving up 125 and 141 yards per game on the ground, respectively. The Broncos put up 154 yards on the ground in the first meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs and had it not been for an untimely interception, they could have won.
If the Broncos can exploit the weakness against the run of all four remaining opponents, they can find success.
More Takeaways... Significantly
Getting takeaways is the single most important factor that will get the Broncos to the playoffs. Here is an analysis explaining the impact takeaways have on winning football games.
Outside of Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain II (only recently), the Broncos’ defense this season is not consistently impacting games with its ball-hawking skills. Simmons and Surtain are the lone significant producers of takeaways on the team (owning nine of Denver's 12 total interceptions between them). Furthermore, it's rare that Bronco defenders punch the ball loose to create a fumble.
The Broncos' defense has accumulated six games with multiple takeaways and unsurprisingly, they won each game. Unfortunately, Denver hasn't tallied more than two takeaways in a game yet this year and have seven games that have one or none. The latter are the contests that have put Denver's playoff hopes in a precarious position.
The Broncos still have a positive turnover margin (barely, at +1), but the takeaway rate is not going to cut it the rest of the way. Surtain’s ability to get interceptions has increased over the past quarter of the season and that's a good sign. If Chubb can make an impact, we may see an increase in sack fumbles, bringing a much-needed boon to the defense.
The Takeaway
If the Broncos can realize success in these three areas, the postseason is a realistic probability. Denver basically control its own destiny.
Win out and a playoff seed is nearly guaranteed. Even if the Broncos finish with three wins and one loss, they're likely in the tournament as a Wildcard. The Broncos organization and the fans of the team need this desperately after the past five seasons.
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