3 Keys to a Broncos Upset Victory Over the Undefeated Chiefs

Back to the drawing board for the Denver Broncos. Here's how Bo Nix achieves an upset road win.

Oct 17, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

The NFL regular season has passed its midway point now that the trade deadline has officially passed with teams racing towards playoff contention in November. Week 10’s matchup will feature the 5-4 Denver Broncos hitting the road for a second-straight week for a game against the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs.

Sean Payton’s team hopes to shake off its disastrous 41-10 beatdown suffered at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens last week against the back-to-back World Champion Chiefs, who remain the NFL's only unbeaten team. 

Kansas City enters this AFC West contest on a short week having won a 30-24 overtime game on Monday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose offense never had the opportunity to take the field in the extra frame vs. Patrick Mahomes. 

This will also be the first time that rookie quarterback Bo Nix squares off against Denver’s divisional rival. Payton was finally able to snap the Chiefs’ previous 16-game winning streak over the Broncos in 2023. The Broncos are currently listed as heavy underdogs in another road stadium in which they haven't won a game since 2015. 

Because parity truly reigns in the NFL, there are plenty of opportunities for a huge upset this Sunday. Although it’ll be far from easy, here are three strategic keys to victory for the Broncos to hand the Chiefs their first loss this season. 

New Contracts, Higher Expectations

This week the Broncos traded rush linebacker Baron Browning in exchange for a sixth-round pick. On the same day, the Broncos announced that they reached an agreement on a four-year, $54 million contract with rush linebacker Jonathon Cooper. An odd twist of fate for the Ohio State teammates who were both drafted by the Broncos in 2021.

The fourth-year Cooper is coming off a four-tackle performance against the Ravens but he failed to register a QB hit or sack. With a contract including $16.7 million in guarantees, he's credited with 35 tackles, 11 QB hits, 5.5 sacks, and one forced fumble this season. 

Instead of paying for past performances, the Broncos are banking on Cooper to get to Mahomes, who's been battling an ankle injury sustained on MNF against the Bucs. Officially listed with an ankle injury in this week’s practices, Mahomes has been a full participant and will look to avoid Cooper, Nik Bonitto, and Jonah Elliss. 

Tampa Bay previously recorded four sacks against the three-time Super Bowl winning QB last week, while Kansas City’s offensive line has surrendered 16 sacks in just eight games. In fact, Mahomes has been sacked in nearly every game this season except for Week 3. Last week was the first game this season that Mahomes didn’t throw an interception, as he’s credited with 1,942 passing yards, 105 first downs, 11 touchdowns, and nine picks. 

Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who was awarded with a four-year, $96 million extension in September, will also be looking for his fourth interception of the season in a game where he'll draw a hefty workload. In previous Chiefs games, PS2 has drawn the matchup with tight end Travis Kelce at times but will also have to cover wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who's coming off an eight reception, 86-yard, two-touchdown game in his Kansas City debut.

The last time the Broncos won in Kansas City was back in 2015, and we all remember that it was with Peyton Manning at the helm. However, that was that was also the last time Denver rolled out an elite pass rush and lockdown cornerback combination.

What’s that old saying about history repeating itself? If the maxim holds true this week, the Broncos could be eyeing a favorable and early return on investment on Cooper and Surtain. 

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Run at Will, Bo

The Chiefs have won six of their eight games by one possession, indicating that the Broncos will have ample opportunity to stoke the competitive fire and hang with their divisional opponent. If Denver hopes to keep pace with Kansas City in a hostile Arrowhead Stadium, it’ll have to be because Nix led Payton’s offense through the air, but more importantly, on the ground. 

The 24-year-old is the second-leading rusher on the team by just 92 yards, totaling 295 rushing yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Nix also leads the team with 27 first downs obtained on the ground and is quickly gaining notoriety as a dangerous, dual-threat QB.

Chiefs All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie weighed in in on the talented Broncos rookie this week stating, “He’s going to be a challenge for us.” 

But as good as Nix is as a rusher, the Broncos' running back room has been disappointing and inconsistent. Neither Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime or any Broncos RB have recorded a 100-yard rushing game this season.

Williams’ two total touchdowns this season were both scored in a blowout 33-10 win against the New Orleans Saints, as the veteran back seems to be running hot, then cold on a weekly basis. Williams is also responsible for two fumbles this season in addition to Estime’s two fumbles in just 15 rushing attempts on the season.

Typically the offensive line would be bear the blame for an ineffective ground game but aside from an abysmal outing in Baltimore, Denver’s starting five has done decent at the point of attack. Nix averages 32.8 rush yards per game, just 10 yards fewer than Williams, indicating that the athletic signal-caller can produce at a higher rate with less opportunities than any of the Broncos' running backs. 

I’m not suggesting that Nix be turned into a read-option QB hell-bent on being the next flash in the pan, mobile passer. I’m calling for Bo to continue his impressive ability to throw, run and catch touchdowns, even if he has to be a ball-hog.  

Steal a Page from Andy Reid

When fantasy football experts were panicking about Kelce’s slow start to the regular season, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes had to be rolling their eyes. The 12th-year tight end currently leads Kansas City with 52 receptions for 435 yards, and 24 first downs despite scoring just once.

Kelce is coming off a scorching performance on MNF where he was targeted 16 times, hauling in 14 receptions for 100 yards. One can only hope that Payton finds some inspiration or enlightenment when watching the Chiefs' All-Pro tight end get utilized on film this week. 

In Week 8’s victory against the Carolina Panthers, the Broncos celebrated National Tight Ends Day by Nix tossing a pair of touchdowns to Nate Adkins and Adam Trautman. Since then, Payton’s offense has been almost completely void at the tight end position, with Trautman leading the positional room with just seven receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown.

The tight end position has been so underutilized that many fans felt that the Broncos should’ve explored the trade market to search for a playmaking threat to aid their budding rookie QB. A move that never came.

While the Bucs were without their two best players in Kansas City — receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — quarterback Baker Mayfield was able to get a heavy amount of production from tight end Cade Otton, who finished with eight receptions for 77 yards and a score. 

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will likely test Nix’s ability as a passer specifically on the perimeter, which could leave the middle of the field wide open for an unsuspecting Broncos tight ends to move the chains.  With athletic linebackers the likes of Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal and Drue Tranquill roaming between the trenches, I’d expect the Chiefs defense to blitz the daylight out of the Nix, leaving the door wide open for a tight end screen or checkdown in the passing game. 

Sometimes it’s best to fight fire with fire as the Broncos' tight end room should aim to do their best Kelce impersonation in front of the man himself. 

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