How Mike Shanahan is Affected by the Hall of Fame's Recent Rule Changes

How much longer will Mike Shanahan have to wait for Hall of Fame enshrinement?

Dec. 14, 2008; Charlotte, NC, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan reacts on the sidelines in the Carolina Panthers 30-10 victory against the Broncos at Bank of America Stadium. / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Pro Football Hall of Fame is elitist by design. It's supposed to represent the league's very best players, coaches, and contributors, without whom the story of the NFL cannot be told. 

However, it's telling that on the eve of former Denver Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan’s birthday, the Pro Football Hall of Fame made some significant modifications to its selection procedures, some of which were highly consequential and could significantly affect his chances of being enshrined in Canton in a timely manner.  

Candidates for the Hall can be split into a few types:

• Modern-Era Players: Been retired for at least five years, but a maximum of 25 years

• Senior Players: Those who weren't enshrined within 25 years of their retirement

• Coaches & Contributors: Defined by the Hall as someone “who has made outstanding contributions to professional football in capacities other than playing or coaching.”

The first major change is that there will be two new 11-member screening committees comprised of members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, former NFL front office personnel, football historians, and media members. One of these committees will deal with Modern-Era players, and the other with Seniors. In theory, this should allow for more expertise, with new individuals offering their insight as they get the list of potential nominees to 50 players each.

Pro Football Hall of Fame CEO and President Jim Porter released a statement.

“Forming two Screening Committees will bring added discussion of candidates, with input from more Hall of Famers," Porter said. "And splitting the Coach and Contributor categories allows for a Finalist from each one. What’s most important is continuing to elect great classes of enshrinees, and these moves help ensure that desired outcome.”

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For the Modern-Era players, once they've passed that screening stage, not much changes in the process. Eventually, through a multitude of meetings, the Selection Committee will get down to its 15 Modern-Era players finalists in December. 

For the Senior players, things get a little more complicated. Once they've passed the screening stage, they will be sent to the Seniors Blue-Ribbon Committee. Here's what the Pro Football Hall of Fame's website says.

“[The Seniors Blue-Ribbon Committee] will be composed of nine individuals — seven who also are members of the full Selection Committee and two others who will hold full voting rights for this subcommittee (only). As noted in the revised bylaws, these two non-Selection Committee members can be Hall of Famers, football historians or anyone with expansive football knowledge.”

Eventually, though, they will produce three Seniors finalists for each Hall of Fame class. 

The second major change is that the Hall has separated the Coach and Contributor categories. Now, finalists in the Coaches category will be drawn up separately from the ones in the Contributor category.

Previously, these were combined in one category, and the finalists would be voted in separately. The Pro Football Hall of Fame website specifies it.

“Beginning with the Class of 2025, a nine-person Coach Blue-Ribbon Committee and a separate nine-person Contributor Blue-Ribbon Committee will meet and select one Finalist each for the new class.”

Part of the goal here is to have a more standardized procedure, with the selection of Coaches and Contributors being along the same lines as the Seniors.

The third major change is that the Hall has reduced the waiting period for Coaches: from five seasons out of the game to just one. This means that, if neither were to get a job in the NFL for 2025, Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll, would be eligible in the Class of 2026.

However, this will create even more of a log jam, given that Belichick would figure to be the shoo-in as the Coach finalist. We’ll consider what that means in a moment. 

But the final aspect of the changes pertains to the overall Pro Football Hall of Fame class, where the 15 Modern-Era players finalists will be whittled down to three Seniors candidates, one Coach and one Contributor. The Modern-Era players will have a maximum of five selections, and need at least 80% of votes from the full Selection committee.

The Seniors, Coach and Contributor finalists will be combined for the purposes of selection.

“The five Finalists from the Seniors, Coach and Contributor categories will be combined into a second group for voting by Selectors. No more than three nor fewer than one may be elected. As with the Modern-Era Players, approval from 80% of the Selectors is required for election,” the website reads.

What it Means for Shanahan & Other Broncos

November 16, 2008; Atlanta, GA USA; Denver Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan tries to make a point with the officials during the game against the Atlanta Falcons in the first half at the Georgia Dome. The Broncos defeated the Falcons 24-20. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Essentially, while there may be more input into the screening process, once named a finalist, it's going to be even harder for coaches and seniors to stand out, especially given that they will be competing with each other for enshrinement as the maximum limit is three the pool of three Senior finalists, one Coach finalist, and one Contributor finalist.

With Randy Gradishar recently getting his long-overdue recognition from the Hall of Fame as the first member of the famed Orange Crush defense to be enshrined, many in Broncos Country would figure the spotlight would then turn to some of its other members.

Most notable would be Grashishar's linebacker partner Tom Jackson, as well as cornerback Louis Wright — the original “shutdown cornerback.” In terms of some other worthy players in the 1980s, like Dennis Smith qualifies under the Seniors consideration. Players such as Neil Smith, who last played in 2000, would start to fall into Seniors consideration as soon as 2026. While his time in Denver was short, he was certainly impactful. 

The fact that these players, who have waited long enough, now have to compete with coaches and contributors, many who have had to wait themselves, is an unwelcome development. At least there will be a Coach, and a Contributor finalist under consideration by the various committees every year. 

But bringing it back to Shanahan. Can you tell the story of the NFL without him?

Getting the Broncos over the hump with back-to-back Super Bowl titles in the 1990s, Shanahan is the winningest head coach in franchise history with 178 career wins (including postseason). Even his time spent in San Francisco, where he helped the Niners to their fifth Super Bowl should factor in.

Shanahan was the offensive coordinator of the team that scored the most total points in a season (later broken by the 2013 Broncos, of course.) Shanahan’s innovative offensive scheme is also another big factor in his Hall-of-Fame worthiness, which has spawned a successful coaching tree that has roots all over the NFL, to say nothing of the plethora of 1,000-yard rushers that have spawned from his offense.

Indeed, this is not to rehash all the arguments on why Shanahan should get in. But if he doesn’t get in this year, it could be a long wait given the log jam of seniors and other coaches who, for one reason or another, might get more consideration.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame is supposed to be elite, but the latest move could push some Broncos even further to the margins of consideration.

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