New Metrics Reveal Bo Nix is the Franchise QB Broncos Have Been Searching For

This deep-dive analysis illustrates that the Denver Broncos' search for a franchise quarterback is over.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have tried many times to acquire a franchise quarterback since Peyton Manning retired. I'm here to tell you today that the Broncos have found that quarterback in Bo Nix.

Nix's rookie season numbers tell the tale if examined closely enough. His passing has improved significantly through the season and if you analyze Nix compared to other veteran quarterbacks, he ranks well, even as a rookie.

There's a reason Nix was named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month of October. And there are reasons he was able to follow that up by with Offensive Rookie of the Week honors.

To illustrate that steady improvement, I broke down Nix’s first five weeks compared to the last five weeks while juxtaposed with other high-caliber veteran quarterbacks. 

First, I examined completion percentage by breaking it down into short passes (less than 15 yards) and deep passes (15 yards or greater). Even though the perception of Nix coming out of college was that he was a short-throw, timing passer, his deep passing in the NFL is more than solid for a rookie.

Let's dive in.

Deep Completion %

During the first five weeks, on deep throws, Nix's completion percentage was 35%, but that has improved to 38% over the last five weeks. The latter mark is better than Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield during the same time period.

Note: The image on the left is the first five games. Image on the right is the last five games.)

Bo Nix's completion percentage. First five games (left) and last five games (right). / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

Short Completion %

Nix's short completion percentage has also improved. He started the season at 69%.

Over the last five games, Nix's has completed 74% of his short passes, which is better than Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Burrow. Nix has gotten more accurate as the season has progressed and is keeping pace with some of the better veteran quarterbacks in the league.

Bo Nix's short-area completion percentage. First five games (left) and last five games (right). / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

Deep to Short-Pass Ratio

Nix is also throwing deep more often than most quarterbacks. Only Anthony Richardson has a higher deep-to-short pass ratio, and Nix is tossing it right at the league average in air yards per deep pass attempt.

Over the past five weeks, Nix has averaged 25 air yards per deep pass, which is similar to Matthew Stafford and over a yard more than Mayfield. Nix has not been a check-down quarterback but an aggressive passer as a rookie. That shows confidence.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

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Deep Passing

The two most significant areas of improvement have been Nix's ability to throw touchdowns and avoid throwing interceptions. Over the first five weeks, he couldn't connect on a deep throw touchdown.

Over the last five, Nix has thrown a deep pass touchdown on 0.05 deep pass attempts. This is still below the league average but a large improvement and better than Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence over the same time period.

Bo Nix's deep-pass percentage. First five games (left) and last five games (right). / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

TDs per Short Pass

Nix's touchdown per short pass attempt has doubled from the first five weeks and is above average for the NFL. He's getting better at tossing touchdown passes from any range.

First five games (left) and last five games (right). / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

Interceptions per Deep & Short Pass

Nix's interception per attempt has decreased dramatically. In the last five games, his interceptions per deep pass metrics rank near the top of all quarterbacks, while his interceptions per short attempt is better than most veteran quarterbacks, including Mahomes. 

First five games (left) and last five games (right). / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

Over the course of the season Nix has increased his touchdown production per attempt while decreasing the interceptions. That shows good decision-making and indicates that he's contributing to the Broncos' success as a passer much more frequently now that he has some experience under his belt. 

Yards After the Catch

While Nix is contributing to success, his skill-position players are not doing so as significantly as other teams' supporting casts do for their quarterbacks. Nix has had a low yards-after-the-catch contribution in both the first five and last five weeks, especially on deep passes.

The yards after catch on his deep throws is near the bottom of the league at 1.3 yards per deep pass attempt, up from 0.8 in the first five games. His short passes have fared better in the past five games improving to just above average to 3.8 yards per short pass. However, there are many veteran quarterbacks with better yards after catch even after Nix’s improvement.

First five games (left) and last five games (right). / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

The Takeaway

As a rookie, Nix has done everything the Broncos could have hoped for, even if his overall stats don’t “wow” anyone. His improvement over the season has been incredible, which indicates he's a student of the game.  

If the Broncos can put elite skill players at receiver next season, Nix's success will be far greater. He looks like the franchise quarterback the team has searched for since Super Bowl 50.

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