Next 3 Opponents Will Reveal if Broncos Defense is Elite or Very Good

Are the Denver Broncos truly elite on defense? The next three opponents will answer that question.

Oct 27, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) celebrates his interception with cornerback Riley Moss (21) and linebacker Kwon Alexander (12) and safety Devon Key (26) in the third quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Halfway through the regular season, the Denver Broncos have one of the premier defenses in the NFL. After eight games, the Broncos have the third-best defense in points per game at 15.0, third-best opponent yards per game, tied ninth in takeaways per game at 1.5, have the fifth-best defense according to DVOA, and rank first in the NFL in defensive EPA/Play at -0.163.

Perhaps only to be outdone by the Washington Commanders offense as the most surprising unit in the NFL this season, the Broncos' current playoff aspirations should be credited to what appears to be the team's best defense since the No Fly Zone of Super Bowl 50.

The 2024 Broncos defense still has plenty to prove if it's going to finish this season as one of the best units in the NFL. So far this season, Denver has only played one offense that ranks top 10 in both offensive EPA/Play and DVOA in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The opposing offenses the Broncos have faced rank 20th in EPA/Play and DVOA, so things are set to get significantly more difficult for the Broncos’ defense.

Do the Broncos have a truly elite defense or is it a very good unit that's had an overwhelmingly easy schedule so far this season? Fortunately for the Broncos, the truth will be revealed after only playing one good offense so far this season (and arguably only two or three above-average). The gauntlet that is Denver’s upcoming three opponents — the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Atlanta Falcons — will likely define just how good the Broncos defense is this season.

Let's examine each of the three coming opponents.

Baltimore Ravens

Taking on the Ravens this week, especially coming off of a rather stunning loss, is going to be an extremely difficult task for the Denver defense. Lamar Jackson is likely the favorite for the MVP, if the season ended today, and the addition of running back Derrick Henry completely changes the dynamic of the Ravens' rushing attack.

So far this season, Baltimore’s offense ranks second in EPA/Play, second in success rate, and first according to DVOA. The Ravens offense is not only lethal but incredibly balanced as well, ranking second in passing EPA/Play, first in passing success rate, fourth in rush EPA/Play, and fourth in rush success rate. The Broncos can make a statement in Baltimore if the defense shows up and wins its matchup.

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Kansas City Chiefs

While the Chiefs offense is not overly exciting or explosive this season, they're brutally efficient. Kansas City's offense ranks ninth in DVOA, 10th in EPA/Play, first in offensive success rate.

The Chiefs are not creating many explosives as indicated by their EPA/Pass ranking 14th and EPA/Rush ranking eighth, but they're second in pass success rate and first in rush success rate. The Chiefs' methodical efficiency is maddening to go against.

The Chiefs are not the explosive offense many have associated with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but rather, it mimics a majority of the New England dynasty with a road-grading interior offensive line, down-after-down effective rushing football, and asking a quarterback to make enough plays to overcome one of the worst set of pass-catchers he's had in his career to date.

Atlanta Falcons

While the Falcons are not on the same level as the Ravens or Chiefs offenses on the whole, they might possess the best grouping of skill position players in the NFL with a quarterback who looks better by the week. Ranking sixth in DVOA, ninth in EPA/Play, and seventh in success rate, the Falcons could easily wind up as the best offense in the NFL with a solid second half of the season.

The Falcons pass offense ranks 10th in EPA/Play and 11th in pass success rate. Surprisingly given the Falcons have arguably the best running back duo in the NFL in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Alligier, their rush EPA/Play ranks 13th on the year but sixth in success rate. Efficient but not explosive.

On the whole, compared to Denver’s previous eight games, the average EPA/Play rank of the upcoming three offenses ranks seventh and the average offensive DVOAs rank fifth. Each offense also goes about its effectiveness differently, with Baltimore possessing the most dynamic backfield duo in the league, the Chiefs with an incredibly talented interior offensive line, the wildcard of a pocket quarterback in Mahomes, and a heap of offensive weapons.

Bottom Line

The Broncos defense does not have to dominate each matchup to establish the unit as one of the best units in the NFL. However, after fattening on a relatively soft slate of offenses through the first half of the season, the Denver defense now must flex against three of the best offenses in the NFL.

If the Broncos defense can continue to play at the level it has, then the team can continue its march to earn a playoff berth for the first time in nearly a decade.

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