NextGen Stats May Hint at Broncos' Plans for 3 Key Free Agents

These metrics cast these three pending Denver Broncos free agents in a different light.

Chad Jensen | Feb 12, 2025

Dec 2, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Justin Strnad (40) and linebacker Cody Barton (55) after the game against the Cleveland Browns at Empower Field at Mile High. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

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Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos defense finished an impressive 2024 season as the NFL's leader in sacks (63). The Broncos also ranked No. 7 in yards per game, No. 3 in points per game, run defense, and red zone while finishing just outside the top 10 in third-down efficiency (No. 11).

This led to Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph getting looks from other teams to fill head-coaching vacancies, though none of them came to fruition. It also resulted in cornerback Patrick Surtain II winning the AP Defensive Player of the Year award, the first Broncos to do so since Hall-of-Famer Randy Gradishar in 1978.

Along the way, the Broncos had three defenders named to the AP All-Pro Team, including Surtain, rush linebacker Nik Bonitto, and defensive end Zach Allen. It was one heck of a season for Joseph's unit, and we're still learning just how effective the Broncos defense was in 2024.

The Broncos have several pending unrestricted free agents, including three defensive starters. Denver ranked third in NextGen Stats' tackling efficiency metric, and these numbers could serve as harbingers for the decisions the team will make on each pending free agent.

"In Week 18, the Broncos became the only team this season to convert every tackle opportunity in a game (zero missed tackles on 31 attempts in their win over the Chiefs), capping a campaign in which they generated the NFL's fourth-highest tackle efficiency rate (88.5%) one year after finishing 30th in that category (85.4%). Denver was also stingy when it came to yards allowed per missed tackle (4.9 yards, third fewest). Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II missed just one tackle on 46 attempts, making him among the most reliable tacklers in the league. Free agency could be interesting for this defense: two of the team's least efficient tacklers (Justin Strnad, 80.2% and D.J. Jones, 80.8%) are potentially on the way out -- but so is one of Denver's most efficient tacklers (Cody Barton, 92.0%)," the NextGen Stats team wrote.

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As the NFL's preeminent shutdown corner, we all know how dominant Surtain was in coverage. But these tackling metrics illustrate his tremendous physicality and will to win. A cornerback being that reliable as a tackler is a rare and valuable thing, especially paired with elite coverage acumen.

On the other hand, Jones' tackling metrics aren't very encouraging for a point-of-attack player hitting free agency. He didn't play at a level commensurate with the three-year, $30 million deal Denver handed him in 2022, and these metrics could hint that the team doesn't plan on trying to re-sign him.

The same can be said for Strnad, who's also hitting free agency. A 2020 fifth-round pick, the Broncos opted to re-sign him to a one-year deal last spring for his special teams ability and as linebacker depth.

Alex Singleton's season-ending ACL injury in Week 3 forced the Broncos to rely on Strnad as a starter. That led to an up-and-down season, but each week, especially down the stretch, there was a collective lament from Broncos Country over Strnad's missed tackles, and these metrics lay bare the brutal reality of their impact.

It would be a surprise if the Broncos pursued Strnad again. But it will depend on what the team does with Barton's pending free agency, as well as the other personnel decisions betwen free agency and the NFL draft.

Barton's 2024 resume, however, was relatively impressive. What he lacked in coverage he seemed to make up for in run support, finishing with 106 tackles (53 solo), 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and two interceptions, one of which he returned to the house.

Although he's become somewhat of a mercenary linebacker, Barton has produced triple-digit tackles in three straight seasons with three different teams. That's not easy to do, and these NextGen Stats could reflect that he's a lot more valuable to the Broncos than the common perception within the fanbase.

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