NFL.com Fades Broncos' Playoff Chances

Does this accurately reflect the Denver Broncos' playoff outlook?

Oct 17, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton reacts during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Despite coming off of a shellacking on the road against arguably the best offense in all of football in the Baltimore Ravens, the vibes around the Denver Broncos remain relatively high. The Broncos have been relatively fortunate to have a fairly weak schedule so far this season, only having gone against two teams that would currently be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Still, the Broncos sit in the No. 7 seed in the AFC with a 5-4 record. Can the Broncos make the postseason for the first time in eight seasons and snap the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL, ahead of only the New York Jets?

It depends on who you ask. According to NFL.com's staff of analysts, the Broncos sit as the team with the fifth-most votes to earn an AFC Wildcard. Only Steve Mariucci, Keegan Abdoo, and Lance Zierlein predicted Denver to finally snap its playoff-less streak.

No one on the panel picked Denver to win the AFC West, with the Kansas City Chiefs owning a massive four-game lead. It is surprising that so few believe Denver can make the postseason in a rather horrible AFC middle class this season.  

"Although both the Chargers and Broncos are currently holding wild-card spots, only the Bolts are predicted to maintain their place in the AFC playoff picture by the end of the season. Among the factors working against Denver's playoff hopes: the league's fourth-hardest SOS remaining (.565), which includes two games against Kansas City," NFL.com wrote.

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The Broncos currently sit a single game above the Indianapolis Colts (surprisingly a team that did not receive a single vote to make the playoffs despite being the first team out currently) and 1.5 games up on the Cincinnati Bengals. Denver also sits two games ahead of the Jets with the head-to-head tiebreaker.

It will be hard for Denver to reach the No. 5 seed, which will likely go to the “loser” of the AFC North race between the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, with Denver having lost the head-to-head matchups. However, the Broncos could easily still make the No. 6 seed if they can keep winning and defeat the Los Angeles Chargers later this season to split the series this season.

According to NFL.com, the Broncos currently sit with a 53% chance to make the playoffs this season. If Denver were to defeat Kansas City on the road, its probability would move all the way up to 70%, whereas a loss would dip the team to 47%.

Pro Football Focus views a loss far more detrimental to Denver. Currently sitting with a 50% chance to make the playoffs, a loss drops the Broncos to 42% in PFF's models, but a win pushes them up to 72%. A win on Sunday would go a long way toward the Broncos making the playoffs, but a loss would be far from season-ending.

Despite these models still liking their chances to make the playoffs as essentially a coin toss, the Broncos are getting far less love than their main competition for the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds compared to the Chargers and Bengals. Every analyst on the panel selected the Chargers to make the playoffs, compared to just three for Denver.

That doesn’t seem too unfair, given the Chargers soundly defeated the Broncos in Denver this season and boast one of the best defenses in football with a quarterback playing exceptional football. More shockingly, though, is the vast preference for the Bengals. 

With 23 of the 27 analysts picking the Bengals to make the playoffs (again compared to just three for Denver), they very well could jump the Broncos and keep them out of the playoffs, but to the level of polarization the panel voted? Probably not.

The Bengals have one of the best offenses in all of football, ranking seventh in EPA/Play, 10th in success rate, and DVOA. However, Cincy's defense has been abysmal this season, ranking 26th in EPA/Play, 27th in success rate, and 25th in DVOA.

The Takeaway

The math and probabilities are fun to ponder, but in the end, the Broncos hold the power to make the playoffs completely in their hands. With future games against the Colts, Chargers, and Bengals, the Broncos will have a chance to get a game up and earn the head-to-head versus other AFC teams looking to make the playoffs, although splitting with L.A. is the best-case scenario now.

Things are not easy from this point, as Denver will also play the Chiefs twice, the Atlanta Falcons, and a formidable Cleveland Browns defense with a Jameis Winston wildcard. Take care of business and the results will work themselves out.

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