PFF Renders Possibly its Boldest Bo Nix Prediction Yet

If this comes true, the future is bright for the Denver Broncos.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix warms up in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have a lot of intriguing storylines for the 2024 season. How will the organization bounce back after one of the worst trades in NFL history and the fallout from the Russell Wilson trade, including an unprecedented dead cap hit for one player?

There are many different plots to follow for the Broncos this season, but the main one Broncos Country and the NFL at large will be following will be that of rookie quarterback Bo Nix — the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Nix looked good in preseason football and will be Denver’s first Week 1 rookie starting quarterback since John Elway back in 1983.

Was Nix the right pick for Denver? Can he continue to get better? Is Payton as good at evaluating quarterbacks compared to the rest of the league as he claims to be? Only games being played can answer these questions.

While many seem to be adding caveats and qualifiers to Nix’s rookie year expectations, Pro Football Focus seems rather bullish on the 24-year-old’s outlook. Trevor Sikkema predicts that Nix will earn a top 15 PFF passing grade from the analytical giant in 2024.

"This might seem like a wild take, but it’s not when you break it down. The Broncos' offensive line recorded the highest team grade in the AFC last year. When he was given a good line at Oregon, Nix put up elite efficiency numbers and PFF passing grades. He also finished this preseason with an 80.4 PFF passing grade. He won't lead the league in big-time throws, but he can play efficiently enough behind that expensive offensive line to surprise some people with how highly he ranks in PFF passing grade at the end of the year," Sikkema wrote.

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For comparison, Wilson earned a 72.5 passing grade last year from PFF, ranking 20th out of 33 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks in 2023. While it seems much of Broncos Country expects Nix to be immediately better than Wilson last season, he's still a rookie who will have some growing pains and has ample unknowns as far as to what extent his game will translate.

That said, given how obviously poor the fit between Wilson and Payton was last season schematically, having a quarterback who can come in and simply make the right reads on time that the head coach is drawing up should elevate the floor of the passing game on the hole.

PFF is also right to point out the collective talent of the Broncos’ starting offensive line. While the unit is not likely to have multiple All-Pros on it, Denver has invested in the unit more than any other area of the roster since Payton came to town.

The depth of the unit is a large concern as Denver is unlikely to have the injury fortune the O-line had last season. But with a quarterback who should help complement the blockers as opposed to taking sacks, Denver’s expensive unit should help the rookie in multiple ways on the field.

The offensive line should be solid and help Nix, but outside of Courtland Sutton, Denver just doesn’t appear to have much offensive firepower. This could limit explosive plays if Nix isn’t hitting difficult windows down the field and pushing the football.

PFF will attempt to separate Nix’s play and execution on the field from the play of his pass catchers, but if players like Javonte Williams and Greg Dulcich can’t stay healthy, and no one besides Sutton steps up at receiver, the quarterback and the offense on the whole will be rather limited.

Excitement is growing in Broncos Country for the season and the high investment at the quarterback position in Nix. If he can play his way to a top 15 PFF pass grade season as Sikkema predicts, the Broncos might be an interesting team down the stretch and potentially even earn their first Wildcard berth in nearly a decade.

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