Insiders Predict When Broncos Will Bench Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is running out of runway with the Denver Broncos.

By now, there are few left who believe that Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson can be redeemed by Sean Payton. Although that was the hope, the Broncos' 1-5 start has thrown a bitterly wet blanket on the notion of a Wilson renaissance. 

The Broncos are paying Wilson a ridiculous amount of money to lose every week. He's making the money of a top signal-caller in the NFL, but the incongruence of his play has insiders wondering when the Broncos might throw in the towel on Wilson, and sit him for fear of an injury befalling him, which would cost the team even more money, even in the event of a release. 

If the losses continue to mount, at what point do the Broncos bench Wilson? In a recent mailbag, ESPN insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano analyzed the realities of the situation facing Payton and the Broncos relative to the quarterback position. 

Graziano: I think the Broncos have to bite the bullet and cut him before the 2025 guarantees kick in next March. Designate him a post-June 1 cut, take the $35.4 million dead money hit in 2024, another $49 million or so in 2025 and draft a QB to rebuild around. This is a bigger project than I think coach Sean Payton expected, and a reset is probably the best way to go. If you're going to have a quarterback on a rookie deal for the next couple of seasons, you can afford to absorb those dead money hits.

True. The dead money hits the Broncos would be facing if they were to move on from Wilson next offseason would be somewhat offset by the drafting of a rookie quarterback in the top-5. A few additional moves relative to some of Denver's expensive veteran contracts could help mitigate the sting of Wilson's dead money, and give the team some breathing room to add free-agent help. 

But what about the issue of the continued risk of playing Wilson this season? The Broncos are yet to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but the hope of a postseason berth is all but dashed. 

What if Wilson gets injured? Fowler punctuated his remarks on the Wilson conundrum on this very topic. 

Fowler: Plus, that 2025 salary is guaranteed for injury, which deepens the intrigue if the Broncos continue to slide this season. Would Payton pull him for Jarrett Stidham? The Denver coach seemed smitten when discussing Stidham's ceiling at the NFL owners meetings in March. That would be a drastic move, but one that could make sense on a financial level if the losses pile up into mid-to-late November.

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After a less-than-impressive start to the preseason, Stidham did look much better in the Broncos' third game. His play under center made many Broncos fans realize that he's much more of an athlete than perhaps he's given credit for. 

Payton hand-picked Stidham as his No. 2 quarterback this past spring, signing the former New England draft pick to a two-year, $10 million deal. At the time, Denver's new head coach gushed about Stidham's starting-caliber upside. 

“There were a couple of directions really with that position and there were a handful of No. 2’s that either I have worked with, or we felt comfortable with," Payton said of Stidham back in March. "In this case, I think he’s a No. 2 whose arrow is moving in a direction where we feel like he can become an NFL starter in our league. The evaluation was pretty crystal clear for all of us. I think he's someone that's going to be great in the room. He's smart. Quietly, that was an important sign for us.”

A fourth-round pick out of Auburn back in 2019, Stidham has appeared in 13 NFL games with two starts, both of which were last year with the Las Vegas Raiders. His career marks include a 6-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 656 passing yards, and a QB rating of 73.5.

Not exactly numbers to write home about. But his play for the Raiders last year, combined with the evaluation Payton had of him coming out as an NFL prospect in 2019, was enough to paint the picture of what Stidham could be in the coach's scheme. 

Meanwhile, after a solid, if unspectacular, start to the 2023 season, Wilson's play has fallen off a cliff in the past two games. His 2023 totals through six games include 1,305 passing yards, a 65.9 completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions, with a rating of 99.0. 

The box score stats make Wilson's play this year look much better and more consistent than it's been. While he isn't the biggest reason for the Broncos' woes, he also hasn't been good enough to elevate the roster, cover holes, and lead the team to victories. 

You might say that Wilson hasn't been the problem, but he certainly hasn't been the solution either. If the losses continue to mount, it's only a matter of time until Payton pulls the plug in the interest of protecting the Broncos' long-term. 

If Fowler is right, circle mid-November as the decision point for a possible change under center in Denver.

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