Russell Wilson's True Value to Broncos Revealed by New Metric

Which Denver Broncos are outplaying their contracts, and which are underperforming them?

After five games, it’s time to take a closer look at the Denver Broncos player valuation, as measured by Over the Cap, as to where players are at this point of the season. OTC posts weekly player valuations, but those are based on each week, while the player’s overall valuation is indicated on his player page at OTC.

I’m going to compare the valuations for the season with the total amount of cash the Broncos are paying the player this season. This gives us a better idea of what the Broncos are getting from a player for this season relative to the money he is making.

We’ll focus on key Broncos, such as notable veterans, free-agent signings from the 2023 offseason, and notable players on draft pick contracts. As always, you may visit the OTC player valuation page to see the values for the most recent week, then look at player pages for total valuation.

Russell Wilson | QB

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Valuation through five games: $32.6M

Cash due for 2023: $28M

Wilson is delivering for the most part in terms of the money he’s due for this season, though if one looks at his APY salary of $49M, he isn’t delivering.

The best way to describe Wilson thus far is that he can be a productive player, but he cannot put the Broncos on his shoulders and will them to victories. He's a good quarterback but isn’t a top-five QB, despite what statistics may say, and some might not put him in the top 10.

The question to ask is whether the Broncos can keep building around Wilson. While he isn’t the problem with the Broncos, he’s not necessarily the guy for the long haul.

Garett Bolles | OT

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Valuation through five games: $15.2M

Cash due for 2023: $13.75M

Questions surrounded Bolles’ health going into the season, but they appear to have been answered. While Bolles isn’t a top left tackle, he’s been effective, and the Broncos are getting a reasonable return on their investment this season.

Rumors were that the Broncos tried to trade Bolles during the 2023 offseason but found no takers. If the Broncos go into a full rebuild in 2024, he might be the subject of trade talks, but there could be more interest now that he’s healthy and playing well for the most part.

Of course, if the Broncos do rebuild, it’s possible they keep him for 2024, given that he has been the best overall offensive lineman this season.

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Mike McGlinchey | OT

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Valuation through five games: $8M

Cash due for 2023: $20M

While Bolles is delivering, the same cannot be said for McGlinchey, who the Broncos are paying a considerable sum this season. McGlinchey has yet to deliver on the investment the Broncos made in him.

The Broncos won’t be able to cut McGlinchey in 2024 without considerable pain, but they might be able to trade him. Even with McGlinchey’s struggles, it’s not out of the question that another team might be interested in acquiring him via trade.

McGlinchey did have a decent game in Week 4, so it’s possible he could improve. But if he doesn’t, he’ll be yet another right tackle who got big money from the Broncos and was unable to deliver on the field.

Ben Powers | OG

Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Valuation through five games: $7.1M

Cash due for 2023: $15M

The other big signing for the offensive line, Powers has yet to live up to the investment the Broncos made in him, too. Though the gap between his valuation and his cash due isn’t as bad as McGlinchey's, it’s still not a good return.

As with McGlinchey, Powers cannot be cut in 2024 without considerable pain but could be traded. It’s harder to see the Broncos being able to move him, though, because quality guards hit free agency on a regular basis.

Like McGlinchey, Powers was decent in Week 4. He might improve given time but needs to show that he can.

Zach Allen | DL

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Valuation through five games: $12.1M

Cash due for 2023: $17.25M

Allen did get a lot of money for 2023, but unlike the two offensive linemen, he hasn’t been bad as far as the return on investment goes. He did have a good game against the Jets, so perhaps he is turning a corner.

With that said, Allen isn’t a game-changer in the pass rush. He can do good things, but he’s not the type of player to create matchup problems that other teams must account for, thus allowing others to capitalize.

Allen is at least performing at a level that could justify him staying in 2024. He can’t be cut without considerable pain, given the money he is due, but he could be traded if necessary.

Justin Simmons | S

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Valuation through five games: $1.5M

Cash due for 2023: $14.4M

On one hand, Simmons has missed two games because of injury. On the other hand, in the games in which he has played, he isn’t delivering.

Simmons is a popular player, but the reality is that he is off to a bad start, which has been a pattern for the past couple of seasons. In the past, he has played better down the stretch, so it’s possible it will happen again.

However, the Broncos really need Simmons to have a good start and be consistent in order to justify the final year of his contract. Otherwise, they may move on — and unlike the 2023 free agent signings, Simmons has no guaranteed money in 2024, so he can be cut without much trouble.

Patrick Surtain II | CB

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Valuation through five games: $8.3M

Cash due for 2023: $2.6M

Surtain isn’t off to a good start to the season, though he has had some good games. It would be good to see him string together some more quality outings, though.

Surtain does remain an example of the value of a draft pick contract. If he can get back on track in the weeks to come, he could be a key player for a rebuild.

Quinn Meinerz | OG

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Valuation through five games: $8.8M

Cash due for 2023: $1.1M

We’ll look at the offensive linemen who are on draft-pick contracts. Meinerz is another player who is returning value, though he has lacked consistency.

It would be worth bringing Meinerz back in 2024, but the question is whether he would be worth an extension, for which he is eligible next year. While he isn’t terrible, he hasn’t cemented himself as a player the Broncos must keep for the long term.

Lloyd Cushenberry | C

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Valuation through five games: $9.1M

Cash due for 2023: $2.7M

Cushenberry is delivering better than some may have expected, though he is far from demonstrating he should be here for the long term.

He will be a free agent after 2023, so the Broncos will have to ask themselves if he’s worth bringing back and, if so, at what price point. One thing to note is most centers who hit free agency don’t get massive deals, so it’s possible he could return in 2023 as long as the Broncos don’t commit too much.

Nik Bonitto | OLB

© Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Valuation through five games: $12M

Cash due for 2023: $969K

Bonitto is a player who has given Broncos fans some hope, though he is far from a finished product. His pass rushing has improved but he is still a liability in run defense.

Bonitto looks more like a No. 2 edge rusher, rather than a No. 1 who can set the tone for the defense. That’s fine for a late second-round pick, but if that’s his ceiling, the Broncos need to carefully consider what he seeks in an extension once he is eligible in 2025.

Jonathon Cooper | OLB

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Valuation through five games: $11.5M

Cash due for 2023: $940K

The other starting edge rusher is delivering similarly to Bonitto. Jonathon Cooper looks like a fine No. 2 edge rusher but not a No. 1 player who can set the tone.

Cooper is eligible for an extension in 2024. Because he was a seventh-round pick, he’s not as likely to command top dollar in an extension. If his price point is within reason, he might be worth keeping.

Again, you may look at OTC’s player valuation page for more information about Broncos players. 

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