Source of Russell Wilson's Problems Revealed by Analytics

The Denver Broncos have to do something about this.

The Denver Broncos are struggling because the offense is struggling. The floundering can be placed right at the feet of Russell Wilson. 

There is no doubt that Wilson has not been himself throwing the football. There are opinions as to why he is not performing to his standard. 

By way of explanation, we've heard takes like, "The offense doesn’t fit, he's washed up, and he's injured." However, the hard data tells a tale of specific areas of struggle.

Using play-by-play data from 2021 and 2022, it's clear that Wilson is finding it difficult to pass the ball to the short middle of the field and to the left. It's so bad that it can shed light on his poor play to date, and it can also contradict some of the prevalent opinions.

Through six games, Wilson has been as accurate or more accurate to the deep right, deep middle, and short right than he was in 2021. His accuracy to the right is better than the NFL average in 2022. This means that when he throws to his right, he appears to be just fine.

When Wilson targets pass catchers in the short middle of the field, he has been dreadful. His completion percentage has gone from 84% in 2021 to 49% in 2022. That is a decrease of 35 percentage points. 

Wilson's completion percentage to this area of the field is also 20 points lower than the NFL average. Some of that can be chalked up to dropped passes, but not all of it. That is a significant drop-off, and it's contributing to his awful performance in 2022.

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When Wilson attempts throws to his left, he is almost as bad. His accuracy to the deep left is 15 percentage points lower in 2022 than in 2021, it's nine lower than the NFL average, and one of his interceptions occurred in this part of the field. His throws to the short left are seven percentage points lower than in 2021 — 10 lower than the NFL average.

If Wilson is as accurate or more accurate to the other spots on the field, what is the issue? Is it the offense? 

Is it because Wilson needs to be on the move to the left when he is going to attempt those passes? Does the pocket need to move? Does he need more time in the offense? Is it the injury?

Even though it's a small sample size, the injuries Wilson sustained appear to have some impact on his ability to throw to the deep left. Prior to his lat and hamstring injuries, Wilson was completing passes to this area of the field at 44%. Although that number isn’t as good as it was in 2021 for him, it is seven percentage points above the average in 2022. 

Since the injury, Wilson has been incomplete on all his passes and had one intercepted to the deep left. That is abysmal.

That only explains one area of struggle. The other areas of the field Wilson has targeted have not significantly changed post-injury based on the data. The other questions being posed still need to be answered. But they won’t be unless the coaches try something different.

What it Means

The Broncos desperately need to change something on the offensive side of the ball, and it starts with getting Wilson more comfortable throwing to these areas that have suddenly become harder for him than in the past. 

Maybe offensive coordinator Justin Outten sleeping at the Broncos’ facility the past three weeks has inspired something new and effective. Maybe having Wilson sit for at least one game or possibly two will be enough. 

But doggedly sticking to what hasn't worked will only lead to similar results. 

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