Broncos HC Sean Payton Panned by NFL.com for Drafting Bo Nix at No. 12

NFL.com believes Sean Payton could have had his cake and eaten it too on the Bo Nix subject.

Dec 16, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks at the scoreboard / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos came away from the 2024 NFL draft with solid marks by most analysts covering the league. While many think Sean Payton might have reached by taking Bo Nix at No. 12 overall, making him the sixth quarterback off the board, the Broncos head coach evaluated the Oregon star as one of his favorite quarterbacks of this cycle, based on what he wants to run offensively.

Whether or not Nix winds up becoming a quarterback of the caliber to win shoutouts vs. the incredible passing talent across the AFC will have to be proven on the field. Denver's first pick was and will be controversial until Nix and Payton go out and show the doubters they were wrong.

Unfortunately, given the importance of the quarterback position in the NFL and the Broncos' lack of premium draft capital this season, the selection of Nix and the process that led to that choice will be put under the microscope and discussed ad nauseam until the results on the field lead us in a different direction. 

The Nix selection was the main takeaway from NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal. Given the Broncos' need for a quarterback to pair with Payton's offensive scheming acumen, and the QB Goliaths in the AFC West in Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, Rosenthal was, of course, going to break down Nix landing in Denver.

"Bo Nix is the first quarterback that a Sean Payton team has ever drafted in the first two rounds. Payton was infamously close to taking Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when Payton was coaching New Orleans -- but the differences between Mahomes and Nix are stark. Nix struggled when pressured in college and doesn't have an imposing skill set. He profiles as the type of player who usually gets taken in the third round, which is often where the sixth quarterback selected gets drafted. This year, the sixth quarterback was selected No. 12 overall.

"Payton is incredible at maximizing quarterbacks... but in this instance, it's hard to imagine any other team valuing Nix so highly. The Broncos ignored other pressing needs to take him. Instead, they could have traded down to address those needs and still ended up with Nix. It's worth wondering if Payton just set a ceiling on this Broncos era, even as he's trying to get it off the ground," Rosenthal wrote.

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Rosenthal lines up with a majority of other draft analysts saying the Broncos reached when taking Nix at 12. Given the demand for quarterbacks and the specific scheme fit and archetype that Payton appears to be looking for, maybe value at No. 12 lined up for the Broncos at 12, whereas many other teams would not have valued Nix as much. However, given the run on quarterbacks, there is no guarantee that Nix would have been there later if Denver had traded down.

Would the Las Vegas Raiders have taken Nix at 13? The Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, and Dallas Cowboys were also sniffing around rookie quarterback options this draft cycle. If the Broncos’ brass liked but didn’t love Nix, they probably would have traded back and risked him being gone as opposed to taking him outright at 12.

But given the way Payton talked about Nix, he rather obviously was their guy and the Broncos valued him a lot higher than the consensus. Only play on the field will prove whether Payton was correct in that evaluation.

As Rosenthall stated, Payton will undoubtedly raise the level of play of whichever quarterback he has under his command. Given Nix’s experience, athletic baseline in a solid frame, and overall protection, Nix provides an extremely high floor for the Broncos at the position.

Further reports, both from out of Oregon as well as from the Broncos, about Nix in the pre-draft process indicate he's extremely intelligent and already a professional in his approach to the position. Payton will put Nix in a position to succeed and raise his play from its traditional baseline, just like he has done with every single quarterback he’s ever put his hands on as a coach.

Given this is the highest draft investment Payton has ever made at quarterback, it remains to be seen whether he is as good of an evaluator of quarterback talent as he is an elevator of their play on the field through scheme. As far as setting a ceiling with the Broncos, while Nix may not have a top 20 arm in terms of strength, his combination of athleticism, intelligence, and accuracy can, in theory, still give him a pathway toward becoming a top 10 quarterback in the NFL with the help of Payton and his scheme.

Perhaps in hindsight, Nix will prove to have been a reach, but this was the hand-selected quarterback of the head coach you gave away draft picks to acquire, gave a record contract to, and gave the power to reshape a roster for an ailing franchise. It’s now on the shoulders of the head coach and quarterback to prove the naysayers wrong.

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