Here's Why 2024 is Crucial for Sean Payton's Outlook as Broncos HC

Sean Payton probably is given the rope for a multi-year rebuild, but history says his chances for success actually hinge on 2024, Year 2 with the Denver Broncos.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

NFL teams have a long history of hiring coaches who had success with a prior team in hopes they can repeat that success to ultimately resurrect the franchise. The recycling of coaches happens time and again, especially with those head coaches who have won or at least reached the Super Bowl.

These franchises believe that if it worked once with another team, it'll work for them too. The Denver Broncos are banking on it because they paid a large sum in both money and draft picks to hire Sean Payton to turn around a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2016.

Payton won a Super Bowl with the New Orleans Saints back in 2009, before resigning following the 2021 season. Historically, do former Super Bowl coaches like Payton return to their former glory in their next gig?  The short answer is not very often.

Broncos Country will have a solid idea of whether Payton can regain his former form by the end of this season. Based on the historical record, 2024 is a pivotal year for the Broncos head coach. Let's examine...

The Evidence

There have been 29 head coaches to have won or appeared in the Super Bowl who left their former team and have been hired by a new franchise in an attempt to rekindle that previous success.

Only 24 of these coaches can be evaluated because Vince Lombardi passed away before his second season with Washington and four are currently still attempting to get back to the big dance. The jury is still out on Mike McCarthy, Doug Pederson, Dan Quinn, and Payton.

Less than half of those 24 coaches had a winning season with their next team. Less than half of them reached the playoffs again. That's a stunning statistic, considering these coaches' prior history.

Let’s face it; it's tough to win or even reach a Super Bowl, but that's the goal of every NFL franchise, so that's how these recycled coaches should be judged. Only nine (38%) of these coaches made it back to the Super Bowl, meaning almost two-thirds failed to recreate that former success, and many didn't even come close.

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Why 2024 is Crucial

Now, let's examine the one piece of data that makes the 2024 season so critical for Payton and the Broncos.

Only one head coach on this list reached the Super Bowl after taking over a team with a losing record and failing to improve the team’s record dramatically in either of his first two seasons. That coach was aided, in part, by luck. He discovered a grocery clerk who turned his opportunity into a Hall-of-Fame career at quarterback.

Dick Vermeil, the brainchild of the Greatest Show on Turf, led the then-St. Louis Rams to a13-3 finish in his third season at the helm and won it all. Vermeil is the only one on this list to accomplish this feat. All the other coaches who took a second team to the Super Bowl improved their new team’s prior losing record by at least seven wins in one of those first two seasons. 

The Broncos were coming off a disastrous 5-11 season when Payton was hired to take control. He improved the team to 8-9 last year.

In 2024, the Broncos are in rebuild mode with a young roster and a rookie quarterback under center. The Broncos are also carrying a massive dead cap hit from Russell Wilson's disastrous contract. 

This team will have to massively overachieve to get 12 or 13 wins. If that miracle occurs, Broncos fans will be relieved by Payton's accomplishment. However, if it's another losing season, it doesn't bode well for the current regime's future.

Even if the Broncos fail to achieve a huge jump in wins, there's some good news. Payton has at least one more season to turn the club’s fortunes around, historically speaking.

Payton is building the team his way and has a promising hand-picked rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. Wilson’s dead cap hit will be more manageable in 2025, and the Broncos can go after some key free agents to fortify the roster. If Nix is the real deal, he could catch fire in his sophomore season. 

This possible turn of events, if they work out in 2025, could very well be the catalyst for Payton to do what only one other head coach has done in the history of the Super Bowl era and win it all in his third season with a new team, after posting back-to-back losing campaigns.

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