Broncos Predicted to Finish Below 5.5 Wins: Sean Payton 'Loves' it

The Denver Broncos are yet to engender belief in the NFL at large, and that's okay by Sean Payton.

Aug 11, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Denver Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton shares a word with a referee during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Optimism is running high in the Mile High City as the Denver Broncos enter their preparatory week for the season-opener at the Seattle Seahawks. After a strong showing in an undefeated preseason and multiple promising outings from first-round quarterback Bo Nix, Broncos Country appears to have a belief in this team that has been lacking for the past two seasons and much of the post-Super Bowl 50 decade.

Its natural for a majority of a fanbase to have higher expectations for the team they support compared to general consensus. That's just the nature of fandom.

The 2024 Broncos are no exception. While much of the fanbase discusses a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, those around the league have far lower belief in this iteration of the Broncos.

With Vegas setting Denver’s win total over/under line at 5.5 wins, according to many oddsmakers, tied for the second-lowest odds with the Carolina Panthers and only higher than the New England Patriots at 4.5, Denver has a chance to shock the NFL at large and make a lot of bettors taking the over some money.

Don’t count the 33rd Team's Dan Pizzuta among those buying the Broncos as a darkhorse scrappy team narrative. In a recent article discussing whether he would go over or under each team’s Vegas win total line, Pizzuta predicts Denver to go under the 5.5 win total this season.

"I don’t know if it’s possible to say the hype surrounding a team with a 5.5-win total has gone wild, but that’s where we are with the Denver Broncos. The win total remains low, but the over is heavily favored.

"Bo Nix's preseason performance was not enough to suggest this is going to be some hyper-efficient offense throughout the season. That has to be the case in order for that unit to succeed.

"There are still enough questions on the roster, especially on defense (they were 27th in EPA per play last season) outside of Patrick Surtain, that this feels like an uneven season in Denver," Pizzuta wrote.

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The Broncos certainly do have a large number of questions all across the roster. Outside of starting a rookie quarterback, league prognosticators would have Denver rostering one of the worst cast of skill position players at wide receiver, running back, and tight end in the entire league (the 33rd team ranked the running back room as 28th-best in the league and wide receiver room 23rd before roster cutdowns).

Also while Denver has invested heavily in the offensive line, the unit’s depth is questionable and largely untested as the Broncos had the third-best injury fortune on the offensive line last year as the team’s Week 1 starters in 2023 played 99.6% of the available snaps (only behind that of the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs). It's not probable that Denver will have as much health on the unit this season, statistically speaking.

The Broncos, undoubtedly, bolstered their defensive front this offseason. Arguably one of the least impressive rooms on the team in 2023, Denver beefed up the interior with Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Meyers while drafting preseason star Jonah Elliss and adding back a fully healthy Brandon Browning. The unit may lack a superstar player, but the defensive line goes two deep with solid contributors.

The back seven though is a large question. Patrick Surtain is an absolute superstar and Alex Singleton and Brandon Jones should be, at worst, league average starters. There's reason for optimism with nickel JaQuan McMillian as well.

However, the depth of the secondary is largely untested. Can Denver find some diamonds in the rough and cobble together an adequate back seven? Or will Vance Joseph be outgunned by opponents consistently this year?

Even with so many question marks on the Broncos roster in 2024, it does seem hard to imagine a Broncos team failing to win less than six games with Sean Payton as the head of program. Payton has never been the head coach of a football team that managed less than seven wins in a season, and that was before a 17th game was added to the regular season.

As Payton stated in a recent interview with Jeff Duncan: “I love being the underdog. The next time I only win six games in a season will be the first.”  

Perhaps the Broncos will not make the playoffs this season, but finishing with less than 5.5 wins does not appear like something Payton and the organization believe will happen. With a vast majority of betters taking the over on Denver’s over/under, the NFL at large doesn’t think this team under Payton will just lay down and die.

It's a young team and an organization saddled with a lot of dead cap and a lack of recent top-100 picks on the roster. But with Payton pulling the strings and a quarterback the city is ready to embrace, Denver winning less than six games in 18 tries this year just seems hard to fathom.

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