Sean Payton Dishes on Deadline for When Broncos Will Make QB1 Decision

Mark your calendars, Denver Broncos fans.

May 23, 2024; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) and quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) during organized team activities at Centura Health Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos have a big decision to make this summer. Who will be given the privilege of starting at quarterback in 2024?

It's a three-man race between the incumbent, Jarrett Stidham, the veteran newcomer, Zach Wilson, and the rookie first-rounder Bo Nix. Broncos Country has been through the quarterback competition circus many times in the post-Super Bowl 50 era, and would rather know who the QB1 is going to be sooner rather than later.

Alas, head coach Sean Payton is in no rush to name the starter. But he did address his timetable relative to the biggest decision facing the Broncos in 2024 when asked specifically for a date or deadline.

“I said this relative to this time of the year," Payton said on Tuesday. "It’s not just the quarterback [position], but obviously, you’re watching that position. Every day, we’re rolling them different with the ones, twos, and threes... I would say, I have an end date: that would be the week before the first game, but I don’t have a set date.”

Broncos fans have been traumatized in years past by coaching platitudes like, 'We're going with the guy who gives us the best chance to win." Decisions from coaches like John Fox, Gary Kubiak, Vance Joseph, and Vic Fangio left fans mostly dissatisfied, knowing that it was only a matter of time before the QB they named the starter got supplanted with the guy who should have gotten the nod.

Tim Tebow? No, Kyle Orton gives us the best chance to win. Paxton Lynch, your first-round pick who needs to see the field as soon as possible to acclimate to the speed of the game? Nope. How about Trevor Siemian instead? Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock — the list of questionable decisions by head coaches perhaps prioritizing job security over what's best for the team and player is long.

In every case listed above, the coaching staff was deciding between a younger, inexperienced quarterback with a high-round draft pedigree and an ever-so-slightly more proven veteran. The Broncos are faced with a similar calculation in 2024.

Even though the mandate is to win now, especially for a team like the Broncos that has missed out on the playoffs for eight long years, Payton marches to the beat of a different drum than the coaches listed above — even the greats like Fox and Kubiak, who led this team to Super Bowls. Payton sees the forest for the trees.

It's not an easy call, balancing the demands of winning now vs. the need to cash in the team's chips on a highly drafted player. The hope is that a rookie quarterback emerges who can offer the best of both objectives, and Nix could be that guy. He'll have to show clear separation in training camp, but based on how Payton has gushed about his hand-picked first-rounder thus far, all signs point in the Nix direction.

Payton addressed his outlook on the whole 'best chance to win QB' philosophy.

“I still think we always talk about the locker room and the players in the locker room," Payton said. "I think when we get into training camp and when we get into the preseason games, I think oftentimes the decisions take care of themselves. But the object is to win. I understand the question, but in our league it’s year-to-year. We’re competing to win this year, and we’re going to make the right decision relative to who gives us that opportunity.”

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Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. / Ben Swanson/Denver Broncos

Payton is hedging by acknowledging that, of course, whichever QB he chooses is the guy who gives the Broncos the best chance to win. He's also paying lip service to the veterans in the locker room who want to know that a priority is being placed on the win-now mandate.

When the dust finally settles, regardless of who it ends up being, nothing he'll have said would contradict Payton's decision. The pressure to win now is enormous, especially for a head coach who failed to win more games than he lost in Year 1, even though he did improve the Broncos' win total in the standings by three over the season prior.

However, last month, Payton waxed poetic on the conditions that traditionally need to be met in the NFL for a team to confidently tap a rookie as the starter out of training camp.

“I think some of it is a byproduct of what you have in the building," Payton said back on May 23. "If you have a starter in the building, then that’s the path you go. Then sometimes, you don’t have that luxury, and then that’s the path you go. A lot of it is dependent on the quarterback, his mental makeup. So I think it just varies. When you look at [Packers QB Jordan] Love, who went to Green Bay behind [Jets QB Aaron Rodgers], and then Rodgers who went to Green Bay behind [former QB Brett Favre]. There’s a little bit of a luxury there, but it’s really dependent on the roster.”

The question is, do the Broncos have such a "luxury" at quarterback? Stidham has started a grand total of four games as a pro, so that disqualifies him as being a bonafide "starter in the building" guy, strictly speaking. Wilson is far more experienced, with 33 starts under his belt, but he exited the Big Apple with his tail between his legs and the 'bust' label practically tattooed on his forehead.

Wilson has experience, but it's bad experience. He enters Year 4 with a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23-to-25 and a QB rating of 73.2. The Broncos' first focus is on rebuilding his confidence, which kind of tells you all you need to know about his day-one viability.

Meanwhile, Nix was the most experienced quarterback to ever enter the NFL draft. His 61 career starts are an NCAA Division I record, so while he's yet to take an NFL snap, the former Heisman Trophy finalist has a lot of live-bullet experience. He's also 24-years-old, married, and eats, sleeps, and breathes football.

With the lay of the land illustrated thusly, the bottom line is this: Nix will earn the starting job. And if he fails to out-play the likes of Stidham and Wilson in training camp, then he won't deserve it.

Nix losing out to the Stidham and/or Wilson wouldn't necessarily be a nail in his career coffin, obviously, but it would definitely be a disconcerting harbinger of Payton's big first-round decision, especially considering the Broncos' lack of a "luxury" quarterback. Based on what we've seen so far from Nix, it's a relatively safe bet to assume that when the cleats hit the grass in training camp at the end of next month, he'll make relatively short work of his competitors in the QB room.

The cream always rises to the top.

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