Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Three Areas That Will Determine John Elway's Future with the Broncos
Denver Broncos general manager John Elway, after this season, has two years left on his current deal to oversee football operations. He started off his tenure with the Broncos on a good note, but the returns from his moves in later seasons have been lacking.
Elway has remained in his job mainly because the Broncos ownership situation is up in the air. Team President and CEO Joe Ellis has seemingly had little interest in looking for another GM and, despite some rash decisions by Elway, he's allowed him to carry on. But there's reason to believe that the next couple of years will be Elway's last chance to get the Broncos back to playoff contention.
In fact, it's likely that Elway's future with the Broncos will depend a lot on what Vic Fangio, Rich Scangarello and Drew Lock do during the next two seasons. After 2021, Elway's deal will expire and his future, after that, is up in the air.
Elway has done some good things for the Broncos, including bringing home five Division titles, two AFC crowns and a World Championship, but he's had a number of misses that have added up over time and put the team in the situation it's in now.
With that said, Elway has shown a willingness to change his approach in certain ways — though he still has other things he must change to really get the team where it needs to be.
Let's look at some mistakes Elway has made, how his approach has changed (or hasn't, as the case may be) and how that may possibly set up the Broncos for future seasons.
Coaching
Elway wasn't wrong to hire John Fox to be the Broncos head coach in 2011. The Broncos needed stability and Fox brought that to the organization. He simply wasn't the guy who could put the Broncos over the top.
While Gary Kubiak did great things for the Broncos, it was no secret that he was going to be the guy to replace Fox, to the point that the rest of the interview process was simply about searching for a defensive coordinator. And, after Kubiak stepped down, Elway's next hiring wasn't much of a secret, either.
Vance Joseph had to have made an impression on Elway when he first interviewed for the job in 2015. After all, he got another shot at the job after Kubiak resigned.
It's easy to say Elway made a mistake because Joseph didn't do a good job as head coach, but the main reason it was a mistake was because Elway interviewed a candidate he had previously talked to, rather than starting with a clean slate. When he interviewed Joseph, it's likely that the previous interview weighed on his mind as much as the new one did, and thus influenced his decision making.
Elway changed that approach after Joseph was dismissed. Rather than bring in Dave Toub — who was interviewed for the job back in 2017 — Elway started fresh and broadened his search, talking to five different candidates, all people who Elway had never visited with before.
That led to the hiring of Vic Fangio to be the head coach, then netted a bonus for Elway in landing Mike Munchak to be the offensive line coach. Fangio brought stability and leadership back to the locker room, while Munchak brought a proven track record with coaching up offensive linemen.
Elway did take a chance on getting offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello, who appears to be a case of the GM wanting somebody who has picked the mind of Kyle Shanahan for ideas, more so than by virtue of his own resume. Though Scangarello has gone through a learning curve (and the same applies to Fangio regarding some of his in-game decisions), he seems to be somebody who thinks outside the box.
Whether this coaching staff is successful in the next two seasons remains to be seen. But Elway's willingness to change tactics from relying too heavily on what he remembered from the past (Mike McCoy being brought back as offensive coordinator would be another example, alongside Joseph's hiring), to trying new things (yet managing to land one proven guy in the process) was good to see.
Drafting
Elway's biggest problem with his past drafts appears to be that he often spent too much time following his own mind, rather than gathering more input. I've mentioned players before who Elway fell in love with early on in the evaluation process and never deviated from, but some of them bear repeating: QB Brock Osweiler, OT Ty Sambrailo, QB Paxton Lynch, OT Garett Bolles.
In those four cases, you have two picks that never worked out and two that, while contributing, didn't pan out at the levels expected for the rounds in which they were taken. Bolles, a first-round pick, needed to become a long-term starter and hasn't. Osweiler's path was blocked in part by Peyton Manning's presence, but even so, he never developed into a true starting quarterback.
In Joseph's second year as head coach, Elway shifted his approach a bit. Rather than listening to his heart too much, he appeared to listen more to what others in the building were saying. That led to a much better 2018 draft class.
LB Bradley Chubb has been great prior to his injury and there's hope he can come back and be that impact player again. WR Courtland Sutton fell down the board, Elway drafted him, and Sutton has clearly become an impact player.
CB Isaac Yiadom has taken time to develop, but after a bad start, he's playing better than he has before. RB Royce Freeman has been inconsistent, but he's contributing far more than most of Elway's previous third-round picks have. And there's no question the Broncos found a gem in undrafted RB Phillip Lindsay.
And then comes the 2019 draft class. Fate smiled upon Elway when he was able to trade down and still get TE Noah Fant with the 20th overall pick, then get OL Dalton Risner in the second round and move up in that round to select QB Drew Lock.
If those three players can continue their development, the Broncos will have three important pieces for a quality offense, to join Sutton and Lindsay for the next couple of seasons. And let's not forget DE Dre'Mont Jones, who has made plenty of progress since the start of the season and might be ready to start in 2020.
Another draft class in 2020 that resembles the previous two would set the Broncos up to become a playoff contender again by at least 2021, if not in 2020. All Elway has to do is keep gathering as much input from everyone in Dove Valley who has insight, rather than falling in love with a guy he just has to have.
Free Agency
I've said this many times before, but Broncos fans shouldn't be judging a free-agent haul by how many big names that get signed. Free-agent classes like 2014's DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, Emmanuel Sanders and T.J. Ward working out are the exception. Most of the time, big-name free-agent classes don't translate to success.
Of course, Elway hasn't gone after every big name in free agency the past few seasons. But he's had some misses that have set the franchise back.
We know about the mistakes at right tackle, in which only Jared Veldheer delivered any modicum of a return. But there were other signings that seemed like a good idea at the time, but never panned out.
Remember punter Marquette King? The Broncos looked so smart when they signed him in free agency, but he provided little in return.
There's plenty of skepticism — even pessimism — about CB Bryce Callahan's future, but let's not forget that plenty of people loved that signing, too. Perhaps Callahan can get back on track next season, but he must show he can stay healthy.
But it's a reminder to Broncos fans — and to Elway — that the best free-agent signings are usually those that fall under the radar. Going back to when Elway was courting Manning — he quietly added S Mike Adams prior to landing the future Hall of Fame QB. Adams turned out to be a quality player on a two-year, low-cost deal.
Elway may have missed out on OG Andy Levitre, but he fared better with OG Louis Vasquez. S Darian Stewart may not have worked out as hoped after he signed his second contract in Denver, but there's no question he made an impact on that initial two-year, low-cost deal he first signed with the team.
In other words, where Elway has his best success is when he doesn't try to make a splash in free agency. That's going to be important to keep in mind when he enters 2020 with a lot of cap space to work with. Fans might get impatient and expect him to spend on every big name, but Elway will be better served with patience.
The GM does need to correct a couple of things, though. It goes without saying he can't pay starter money to players with a low sample size of starts. If he wants to take a chance on somebody like that, keep it a low-cost deal, just as he did with Stewart.
Also, Elway needs to keep the 'buyer beware' mentality with any player who has trouble staying healthy. Though the Callahan signing didn't really set him back, the Ja'Wuan James signing did.
As I've mentioned before, the James signing is another lesson: Be wary of going 'all in' on a free agent who leads a position in which the talent pool is thin. You risk too many other teams chasing after the player and, thus, overpaying.
Elway has shown he can still find quality free agents — the Kareem Jackson signing is a prime example. But Elway can still do better in this department, if he goes back to the philosophy of looking for value more often than looking for the big name.
Bottom line
One thing I believe is certain: These next two seasons will tell the tale about Elway's future with the front office. For better or for worse, he'll be alongside Fangio, Scangarello and Lock for the next two seasons. How those three improve will play a big role in how much longer Elway will be running the Broncos.
If Fangio keeps improving as head coach, Scangarello keeps improving as offensive coordinator and Lock keeps improving as the quarterback, the future will likely be bright for Elway. Those three pieces falling into place would go alongside some pieces that are already there and that should get the Broncos back to the playoffs.
But to ensure that everything works out, Elway must keep drafting well and fix his free agency approach. Having a lot of cap space is great, but it does you no good if you get too aggressive.
Just ask the Cleveland Browns, who were considered 'winners' in free agency this past offseason, but have little to show for it this season. Of course, the Browns have other issues (namely coaching), but they are a reminder that the winners in free agency aren't always the winners in the regular season.
Getting back to Elway, Broncos fans can expect he'll be around for at least the next two seasons. Beyond that, it all depends on his approaches to building the team.
He's made a few promising moves, but he can't afford too many more misses. Keep missing too many times and he's likely to be gone after 2021.
But if he can get the rest of his approach on track, he just might get the Broncos back to the Promised Land - and thus ensure he sticks around with the Broncos for a few more seasons.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
