Two Broncos Skyrocket in Defensive Player of the Year Odds

It's quite remarkable that two Denver Broncos are in the top-3 odds-on favorites for Defensive Player of the Year.

Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II (2) and outside linebacker Nik Bonitto (15). / Derek Regensburger / HectorAcevedo IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

A lot has changed over recent weeks as two Denver Broncos are firmly in the running for Defensive Player of the Year, according to FanDuel's odds. A few weeks ago, both players weren't in the top five, and only one was in the top 10.

These Broncos deserve to be squarely in the running for the award. T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers remains the favorite at -195, but he is now followed by Patrick Surtain II (+380) and Nik Bonitto (+650) as the two players in second and third, per FanDuel. 

The Broncos defense has been tremendous this year, and a significant reason for that has been Surtain shutting down top receivers week after week. On the season, he has allowed 25 catches for 211 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions. He's been reliable in shutting down top receivers, and as a result, he allows Vance Joseph to be aggressive with his defensive front. 

Bonitto is tied for the third-most sacks in the NFL with Watt. Cinicinnati's Trey Hendrickson and Houston's Danielle Hunter rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. Bonitto trails them by a sack and half of a sack.

Of the top 30 players in total sacks, Bonitto has the third-highest sack percentage at 3.7%. But it's his touchdown-making plays that have caused his DPoY odds to skyrocket. On the downside, he ranks 22nd in total pressures. However, it's worth noting that Bonitto has three more pressures than Watt. 

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It's hard to compare Surtain and Watt's impact because they play two different positions. How they impact games is entirely different, but Bonitto and Watt play the same position.

Both players have 11.5 sacks on the season, with Bonitto having 47 pressures to Watt's 44. Their sack percentage is 3.7% for Bonitto and 2.6% for Watt, mainly due to the latter having 126 more pass-rush snaps than the former. 

Bonitto is faster to get pressure, sitting at 2.8 seconds to pressure, and Watt at 3.05. The time to sack is 4.48 for Bonitto to 4.59 for Watt. The average get-off for Bonitto is 0.76 compared to 0.84 for Watt. Bonitto also has 18 quick pressures (a pressure under three seconds), with Watt at 15. By all measures, Bonitto has been a more impactful pass rusher. 

When you look at run defense, the stats and analytics are all flipped in Watt’s favor. Bonitto is known to struggle against the run, while that has always been a point of strength with Watt. So, the edge here goes to Watt, but everyone knows what you do against the pass matters more than what you do against the run. 

Bonitto had achieved something that hasn’t been done since 2014 when T.J.'s brother J.J. Watt won the Defensive Player of the Year award with two touchdowns and 10-plus sacks. Bonitto has achieved that with his pick-six against the Cleveland Browns, and what went down as a fumble return for a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts, even though he plucked a backward pass out of the air and returned it to the house. This is why Bonitto's odds to win the award have skyrocketed. 

There are three games left, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Surtain or Bonitto surpass Watt for the favorite to win the award due to who the two teams have left on their remaining schedule. Between the two Broncos, the path is the most straightforward for Bonitto because of the impact plays he's been able to make. 

The three quarterbacks the Broncos have left to play are the sixth, ninth, and 12th-most sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. The Steelers also play the ninth (Patrick Mahomes) and 12th (Joe Burrow) but have to play Lamar Jackson, the 25th-most sacked quarterback. There's also a chance that Mahomes won’t play in the season finale against the Broncos, which could help Bonitto out. 

With three games left, a lot can happen, but having two Broncos in the top three for this award is something no one expected. That's a win and hopefully a sign of amazing things to come. 

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