Two Crucial Matchups Broncos Must Win at Chiefs

The Denver Broncos have to win these matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.

Oct 1, 2018; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Kendall Fuller (23) at Broncos Stadium at Mile High. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are hoping they can hand the Kansas City Chiefs the first loss of the season. And it won't be easy, as the Broncos have struggled in Kansas City. This team hasn't won at Arrowhead Stadium since September 2015.

That's eight straight losses on the road in Kansas City for the Broncos. Denver ended its 16-game losing streak of the Chiefs last year. Now, the Broncos need to end their Arrowhead losing streak.

There are two matchups the Broncos have to win in order to snap this streak. Let's examine.

Sutton vs. McDuffie

While the Chiefs have a good defense, both of their cornerbacks and two of their top three safeties have had issues in coverage this season. Trent McDuffie, who had a phenomenal season last year, is struggling, allowing a negative 10.8 coverage EPA and 57.9% of his targets to be caught.

One of the concerns about McDuffie was his size. That's an area Courtland Sutton can take advantage of when he matches up with McDuffie.

Kansas City's other boundary corner, Jaylen Watson, is allowing a negative 8.3 coverage EPA and a 51.9% completion rate. He hasn’t been as tight in coverage as McDuffie has been, but Watson closes well and makes a play on the ball to keep passes from being completed.

The Chiefs' cornerback duo has allowed only one touchdown, but the two have struggled between the 20s before clamping down as the field gets shortened in the red zone. 

Chiefs safeties Chamarri Conner and Bryan Cook are allowing negative coverage EPA, but they each have an interception, with the latter also allowing two touchdowns. They can be caught out of position when working their zones, but it will be on Bo Nix to properly time his throws.

Sutton has a good matchup against the Chiefs' secondary. The Broncos need to have him be a big part of their game plan to help open up the other receivers and the run game. 

What happens next on the Broncos beat? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

LBs vs. Hunt

This may seem unusual for the Chiefs, but the Broncos have to worry about their running game more than their passing game. That doesn’t mean their passing game isn’t dangerous, but the Chiefs have been the most efficient rushing offense this year, and it's been the main component to their offense. 

Even without Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs still have a good running attack led by Kareem Hunt. In five games, Hunt has 411 rushing yards, with a 43.2 rushing success rate, which is the 19th-best success rate this season. Excluding quarterbacks, it's the 13th-best.

The Broncos have only faced two running backs with a higher success rate than Hunt, and they've combined for 176 yards. Those two backs were Derrick Henry and Bucky Irving, who had a 43.5 and 44.4 success rate against the Broncos, respectively. 

Now, Hunt doesn’t have the best yards per carry at 3.7, but the Chiefs grind him successfully and efficiently to get them into shorter downs for the passing game. The Chiefs are extremely efficient with their passing game when 2nd-&-6 or less, and they're averaging 4.2 yards per carry on first down to get into those favorable second-down situations.

The Chiefs do an excellent job of setting themselves up for success on first down, mainly through the run game. Those first down runs are where the Broncos have to excel at shutting down Hunt.

If the Broncos can do that, it'll put the offense out of rhythm. With the issues Patrick Mahomes and the passing game has had, it could lead to mistakes and extra possessions for the Broncos.

Denver's defensive front needs to control the trenches and win on first down runs.

---

Follow Denver Broncos On SI/Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!