Broncos DC Among PFF's Short-List of Candidates for HC Vacancies

Don't be surprised if Vance Joseph is coaching elsewhere in 2025.

Aug 25, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph during the first quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos currently rank as one of the singularly best defenses in the NFL. Despite the lack of premium investments on that side of the ball outside of one former top-10 cornerback in Patrick Surtain II, this rather ragtag group's sum, comprised of frugal free-agent signings and mid-round draft picks, is playing substantially better than its parts.

Ranking fourth in EPA/Play, 10th in defensive success rate, and seventh in DVOA, the Broncos defense is the main reason the team currently sits in the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture, with a coin-flip chance to end the franchise’s playoff drought halfway through the season.

Given that this isn’t a defense with multiple lottery draft picks or big-time free-agent pickups dotting the depth chart, it's no wonder Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is starting to garner some buzz as a potential head-coaching candidate for next offseason.

According to Pro Football Focus' Bradley Locker, Joseph is one of 12 current coordinators or former head coaches that could be plucked to fill in a vacancy after this season.

“Joseph’s work in Denver this year has been some of the best of any coach across the NFL. He transformed a defense that sat 23rd in EPA per play last season to one of the best in the NFL, ranking fourth in EPA per play and allowing touchdowns at the fifth-lowest rate.

"Like Kingsbury, Joseph has generally floundered as a head coach. He posted just an 11-21 record as the Broncos’ head man from 2017-18, which may concern some franchises. Still, those looking for defensive upgrades — like the Jaguars, Saints or Raiders — could be fits," Locker wrote.

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Joseph obviously did not work out as head coach for the Broncos. The defense regressed under his tenure as head coach following the elite seasons of 2015 and 2016. However, that regression was far more likely due to the typical plight and volatility of NFL defenses year to year, as opposed to a true indictment of him as a defensive mind and head coach.

Furthermore, while the Broncos fired Joseph after two seasons, a coach in the NFL is typically only ever as good as the quarterback he is tied to during his tenure. With Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum being the prominent two quarterbacks during Joseph’s time in Denver, it’s hard to fault him for the Broncos failing to field a very good football team.

There's a reason the league has heard next to nothing from those two quarterbacks following their time in Denver. They had their blips and good stories, but they were far from quality NFL starting quarterbacks in the league.

It can be hard for a defensive-minded coach to get a second shot at being a head coach, especially since minority head coaches historically have not been given second chances comparatively. Fortunately, there have been such cases in more recent history in the NFL coaching hiring cycle.

Should the Broncos lose Joseph to an outside head-coaching hire, they would receive two third-round compensatory selections, with one coming in each of the next two years as a result of the NFL's diversity development and hiring incentive program. If Joseph were to leave, the Broncos have an internal option in Jim Leonhard, who currently sits as Denver’s defensive pass game coordinator and defensive backs coach.

Denver could also recruit long-time Sean Payton defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who was recently fired as the head coach by the New Orleans Saints.

Bottom Line

Vance Joseph has done a phenomenal job coaching the Broncos defense. He arguably has gotten the best return on investment of any defensive coordinator in football given how handicapped the Broncos have been building the roster and tilting more acquisitions towards the offense as opposed to the defense.

Joseph might not get hired this cycle, but he certainly deserves another opportunity, and it should surprise no one if he were coaching elsewhere next season.

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