NFL Execs Reportedly Tout Broncos QB Zach Wilson's Big Advantage

Is this a trait that separates Zach Wilson from his fellow Denver Broncos quarterbacks?

May 23, 2024; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Zach Wilson (4) during organized team activities at Centura Health Training Center. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to the Denver Broncos' open quarterback competition, the oddsmakers have a favorite: Bo Nix. Surprisingly, it's Zach Wilson, not the incumbent Jarrett Stidham, whom the oddsmakers have given the next-best odds of being Denver's QB1.

Make of that what you will. It's still very early in the process as Sean Payton and his offensive assistants continue to evaluate the quarterback competition taking shape at Broncos Park this summer.

Payton knows he has until the first regular-season game as the worst-case deadline to announcing the starter, but for obvious reasons, the sooner the Broncos make the decision, the better. That quarterback, once he's named the starter, will get all the first-team reps instead of splitting them with two other guys.

One question that my co-host Zack Kelberman and I have received from Broncos fans during the live Mile High Huddle Podcast episodes is why Wilson is viewed more favorably by the oddsmakers than Stidham. Everyone knows that it's not a matter of if but when Nix is installed as the starter. His first-round draft pedigree dictates that reality.

But Stidham has a year in Payton's scheme, which came out in the wash during the offseason training program in a palpable way to media observers. While Nix and Wilson were learning and assimilating an offensive install throughout, Stidham was just repping it out and doing his thing, looking more comfortable and in command.

Nix reportedly acquitted himself better than Wilson did during that install phase, and while Payton and company are always evaluating, the offseason was about the learning process and getting the quarterbacks truly subsumed into the offense. When training camp starts on July 26, the respective performance of these quarterbacks will take precedence over learning.

There are a few reasons why the oddsmakers like Wilson more than Stidham. ESPN's Jeff Legwold sketched out the biggest factor for Wilson in a recent column.

"According to several pro personnel executives who have evaluated the Broncos' quarterbacks, Wilson -- the No. 2 overall pick by the Jets in 2021 -- has liveliest arm and potentially the biggest portfolio of throws he can make. He never found his footing in New York, recording a sub-40 QBR in each of his three seasons and completing 57% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions," Legwold wrote.

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Whether Wilson has the "liveliest arm" is subjective and debatable, but it's clear that Payton absolutely recognized and valued his new quarterback's arm strength and experience. Wilson has 33 NFL starts compared to Stidham's four.

"I like his experience," Payton said after the draft. "You can tell he’s played, and I feel like he has very live arm strength. He’s picking up the offense pretty quickly.”

In the immediate aftermath of the draft, and just hours after selecting Nix with the No. 12 overall pick, Payton dished on why the Broncos pursued Wilson in a trade with the New York Jets. The Broncos stayed patient and eventually acquired Wilson and a 2024 seventh-round pick (No. 256) from the Jets in exchange for a 2024 sixth-rounder (No. 203). That seventh-rounder was spent on South Carolina interior offensive lineman Nick Gargiulo.

"We were really happy to bring Zach on board. ... We really liked that opportunity," Payton said on April 25. "There were a number of veteran backups that signed contracts, and yet we saw talent with a player that just three years ago was the No. 2 pick in the draft. We really like his traits."

Payton himself has dismissed the notion that Nix lacks arm strength. But it's clear that Wilson brought certain "traits" to the table that Payton coveted, especially prior to the draft (when the trade was consummated), and before the Broncos could be certain they'd land Nix or any quarterback on April 25.

The other factor that could be influencing the Wilson preference among the oddsmakers is his relative cost in 2024 compared to Stidham. Wilson will count for $2.7 million on the Broncos' salary cap, all of which the team is on the hook for, meaning that if he's released, it'll be 100% dead money.

Meanwhile, Stidham has a $7M cap number. If released, the Broncos would eat $2M in dead money, while securing $5M salary-cap savings. In other words, it would cost Denver twice as much to keep Stidham as the QB2 than Wilson, if Payton is intent on keeping just two quarterbacks on the roster.

Factoring in Nix's $3.3M cap number as a slotted first-round rookie, the Broncos aren't spending a whole heck of a lot at quarterback, even if they kept all three. We're talking about total salary-cap charges a little north of $13M for the entire trio in 2024.

That's a relative drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the NFL, especially those teams with proven franchise guys. The going rate for the Joe Burrows, Trevor Lawrences, Jared Goffs, and Justin Herberts of the NFL is between $50M-$55M annually.

In that sense, the Broncos are getting a bargain at quarterback, regardless of which way they go in terms of keeping just two or all three on the 53-man roster. However, that's also a big part of the incentive for drafting a first-round quarterback; it gives a team a cost-controlled signal-caller for a five-year window, allowing investments in other key areas of the roster before that $55M burger gets served up.

The Broncos are hoping to make hay while the cost-controlled sun is shining with Nix. But in the immediate short-term, if Payton deems the rookie not quite ready to take the reins, fielding Wilson as the starter for a cool $2.7M or Stidham for $7M (cap number) is still an NFL bargain.

However, as in all things, you get what you pay for in the NFL. Wilson and Stidham are making fractions of what a Burrow or Herbert is because that's what they've shown themselves to be in the league. A bust, a band-aid, a fail-safe, a project, a journeyman... a backup.

Nix comes replete with all the promise and potential of an untainted rookie first-rounder, and the hope is that under the day-one stewardship of an offensive coach as highly regarded as Payton, the former Heisman Trophy finalist can develop into a true franchise guy over the next five years. If that's how it unfolds, the Broncos ownership group will be happy as a clam to open up the Walton/Penner checkbook, and extend him on a multi-year contract that'll — by that time — probably cost upwards of $60M/year.

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