4 Reasons Myles Garrett Could Reach 20 Sacks in 2023
As debates continue regarding how much leadership Myles Garrett provides the Cleveland Browns defense, there's a possibility that everyone will just have to settle for Garrett only being the best pass rusher in team history and arguably the best defensive end of the current generation. Even as always striving to improve as a leader is important, the additions the team has made this offseason, he's primed to have the best season of his career.
On an undermanned, largely unprofessional defense with virtually no help this past season, Myles Garrett was still able to rack up 16 sacks. He faced the most double teams of anyone in the league and still had the highest pass rush win rate at 22.5 percent according to PFF as well as the highest pass rush grade in the league (93.5).
Most criticisms of Garrett are completely contrived and lazy. The biggest area where Garrett can improve are in the size of his gas tank, which can lead to him failing to give full effort on some running plays. Garrett played 75 percent of the team's defensive snaps last year, which is hardly a small amount, but he's also not at the top of the league. It can also be argued that facing extra help in the form of double and triple teams is a factor in his fatigue, but there's no great way to measure that output.
Garrett had a case to be the league's defensive player of the year, but the state of the defense and the team's record made that impossible, so it went to Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, who had an outstanding year and prettier looking stats as part of a great defense on a contender, but wasn't as efficient play to play.
Bosa's 18.5 sacks were 42 percent of 49ers' 44 sacks in 2021. That's a ridiculously high number. But since the Browns posted a pitiful 34 sacks as a team, Garrett had an eye-popping 47 percent of the team total. The second, third and one of the players tied for fourth in sacks from the past season are gone. Defensive tackle Taven Bryan (3) is with the Indianapolis Colts, linebacker Deion Jones (2.5) and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (2) are both free agents. Jordan Elliott, the other player with two sacks from last year remains on the team, but he's likely pegged to be a backup.
Garrett tied his season-high sack total in suboptimal conditions. Heading into 2023, the Browns are poised to provide Garrett with the best situation he's had since entering the league. That could not only lead to Garrett having the best season of his career, but could see him eclipse 20 sacks.
1. Defensive Talent Upgrades
One of the key reasons Garrett is poised to have a monster season is the players the Browns have brought in to upgrade the defensive line. Za'Darius Smith, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Dalvin Tomlinson are genuine threats to the opponent.
Tomlinson's 2.5 sacks last season with the Minnesota Vikings would be in line with what the Browns got from the rest of the defensive line last year. His ability in helping to stop the run and collapse the pocket is more valuable to the Browns than how many sacks he's able to produce, but it's notable that he's been more effective rushing the passer from the nose. That's the spot he played when he was with the New York Giants. Tomlinson was still a great run stopper as a three for the Vikings, but it's a poor fit for rushing the passer.
Additionally, if the Browns plan to utilize a true 50 front as defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has suggested, Tomlinson would project to be a true 0 over the nose, able to driving them back into the quarterback's lap which could facilitate production. But even if Tomlinson does nothing but help stop the run and protect the linebackers, that will produce more obvious pass rushing situations for Garrett.
Za'Darius Smith thrived playing across from Danielle Hunter with the Vikings and there's every reason to believe that will continue alongside Garrett. He's a valuable base end, but a major selling point is his ability to line up and attack the B gap in passing situations. Not only is he a major threat from there, but that allows Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to come in and play on the edge, giving the Browns three dynamic pass rushing threats on the field at once, which is two more than they had on the entire team last season.
That investment in talent extends to the secondary. Juan Thornhill doesn't need to be a superstar to make a big difference. His role fits his skill set. They just need him to do his job. The addition of Rodney McLeod is one of the better under-the-radar signings of the offseason. McLeod was an effective starting safety for the past ten seasons and now he becomes a valuable third option for the Browns that increases the ways the Browns can deploy Grant Delpit as well as Thornhill.
The continuing development of Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr. should also benefit the Browns. Newsome was able to get plenty of experience in the slot last year and will be more prepared to be utilized in a multi-faceted role this season. Because of what the Browns have done to help their defensive line, the Browns have more freedom to play aggressive coverages, especially man. Denzel Ward and Newsome both are built to play man coverage, so this is a great fit for them.
Given the symbiotic relationship between the defensive front and the secondary, the fact both look better this year could compound in how much better the defense performs overall, all of which should benefit Garrett.
2. Jim Schwartz
Jim Schwartz knows exactly who he is and what he wants to do defensively. Since joining the Browns, the front office has done an excellent job of acquiring players that fit his vision on that side of the ball.
Schwartz wants to empower his defensive line to attack, utilizing coverages that allow his defensive backs to play fast, aggressively. Rather than install a number of coverages that could fool the quarterback but might cause his defensive backs to play slower as they have to read and react to the opponent, defensive line stunts are employed to put stress on the protection and the quarterback. That allows the entire defense to play faster.
That would be nearly impossible to pull off with the defensive line the Browns had in 2022. Now, he has threats up and down the line that can generate pressure and reduce the amount of time the defensive backs need to cover.
All of this should benefit Garrett. More talent makes it difficult for opponents to focus so much attention on him. Garrett should not only find himself in more advantageous positions by alignment, but the use of stunts could also enable him to keep the opponent off balance as it becomes more challenging to predict where he is truly attacking.
3. Offensive Improvement
The Browns had a productive offense last year, so there wasn't the need to make dramatic changes like they did on defense. They simply built on what they already had. Adding Elijah Moore, Marquise Goodwin and Cedric Tillman give them a deep receiver room that provides different styles of threats. Jordan Akins adds another receiving threat to the tight end room.
So much of this is squarely on the shoulders of Deshaun Watson. He was a shell of himself in the six games he played last year. It would be difficult for him to play worse, so if he simply regresses to the mean, the Browns are going to be better on that side of the ball.
The better Watson is, the more points the Browns should score, which should enable them to create leads. That could force the opponent to pass more, especially late in games as they attempt to rally back. The defense being so geared to stop the pass, that predictability only helps them and provides more opportunities Garrett to attack the quarterback.
4. Health
Garrett only missed one game with the shoulder injury he suffered as a result of a car accident, but it bothered him in the games for the next several weeks. He was visibly in pain when opponents were able to catch him in that AC joint. Garrett didn't play poorly after the injury, save for arguably his worst game of the year against the Baltimore Ravens. Nevertheless, it stands to reason if he's healthy, he's going to be more effective.
At the Pro Bowl, Garrett suffered a dislocated toe, but he's said that is no longer an issue, declaring himself healthy for the season. His availability will be paramount if Garrett is going to put up a huge sack total. He's been reliable on that front only missing a handful of games over the last several years of his career due to injury.
