Quarter-Mark Review of Baker Mayfield

Reviewing Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield through four games in 2021 and the trends including concerns as well as reason to be hopeful.

Cory Kinnan | Oct 6, 2021

The Cleveland Browns are a quarter of the way through the season, and questions still remain around quarterback Baker Mayfield as he has failed to silence every doubt thus far.

Over the last nine games of last season it seemed as though the Browns and Mayfield had finally found their stride. However in the early part of this season, the hopeful franchise quarterback has put together just an average start to the season for the Browns.

As it currently stands, Mayfield sits below the middle of the road just about every key metric possible. From Football Outsiders to PFF to just plainly turning on the tape, Mayfield has been little more than average to start the 2021 season.

Looking at Football Outsiders first, Mayfield currently sits 20th or below in their value translated to yards over replacement level (DYAR), and in their metric to measure overall value over replacement level per play. According to DVOA, Mayfield is currently playing below the replacement level at -2.4 percent. He sits 26th in QBR with a number of 39.8 as well.

PFF, however, has been a bit more kind to Mayfield over the first three games of the season. They tallied his worst game up to Sunday as his performance against the Texans. That grade came in at 66.1.

They have his best overall game of the season registered as his performance against the Bears. His best passing grade, however, came against the Kansas City Chiefs during the season opener.

There is disparity in his grade against Chicago, as his performance does not match that grade. His grade this week against Minnesota, however, was the lowest on the entire offensive side of the ball at 49.2.

There is still definite hope for Mayfield, hope that his struggles are due to his shoulder. However this has been the trend with Mayfield for over three years now. Hot-and-cold, accurate and inaccurate. This lack of consistency is not a new issue that has suddenly appeared.

This is where we have always sat with Mayfield, and after four years where we may have to sit. At this point the Browns have been given no indication of which Mayfield will show up on a week-to-week basis and we are into year four.

At this point it is more about the plays that Mayfield is not making than a forced turnover. However, at some point a franchise needs to know they can trust and rely on their franchise quarterback to win games for them. To pull then back from a two-score deficit. The comfort level is not high at this point that Mayfield is capable of doing this at the NFL level.

At some point the excuses have to run out for the former first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. From being a rookie, to a coaching change, to learning a new system, to now a potential injury to his left shoulder, there always seems to be a fallback for fans of Mayfield.

However some of the missed throws Mayfield had on Sunday should be made even if he only had one arm. This also does not make up for missing the open read on a basic high/low read on bootleg on third-and-short. Physically he may be hampered, but there is still a lag with the eyes under his visor as well.

There was potential for three touchdowns in the second half of that Houston game that Mayfield just does not see. There was much left on the field against Chicago, and then there is no need to dive any deeper into his performance on Sunday against the Vikings.

Being the embodiment of a fanbase and having a series of commercials in your home stadium is not enough for a team who is just good quarterback play away from contending for a Super Bowl. Teams with strong run games still need top-tier quarterback play and that could not be more evident across the league.

Is there still reason for hope that Mayfield can string together another 7-to-9 game stretch as he did a year ago? Absolutely. However, Mayfield and the Browns are still on the clock while simultaneously behind the eight-ball in regards to their long-term marriage.

The reality is: the Browns will go as far as Mayfield leads them. Yes, their defense is playing out of this world and the run game is rolling. However, unless Mayfield finds another stride, this team will not be playing for a Super Bowl in 2021 or beyond.

Sure this is a sobering conversation. As much as I would love to sit here with complete confidence in paying Mayfield upwards and over $40 million annually, his start to the season has not calmed all fears. Luckily for the Browns, there are still 12 games left in the season and 28 games left on Mayfield's contract.

Published Oct 6, 2021

CORY KINNAN