Cleveland Browns 2021 Mock Draft, Vol. 1
It's a unique season under difficult circumstances, but the Cleveland Browns are 5-3, in position to make a run at the playoffs and it's a good time to start looking ahead to what they can do in the 2021 NFL Draft to improve the team.
I wrote this to discuss the direction I think the Browns are going, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. As for the mock draft, the pick is moving, but for the time being, my rationale is to give the Browns the 18th pick in the draft.
The reason is pretty simple. I expect the Browns will make the playoffs and unless the NFL feels forced to expand the playoff brackets to eight teams per conference rather than seven, it's the lowest pick the Browns can have while making the playoffs, which seems pretty reasonable.
Here's a peek into the madness that goes into producing these mock drafts, especially the first one. Despite the fact that the 2021 NFL Draft is five months away and my board will change significantly due to additional data, including more games and athletic testing in addition to the fact I expect the Browns to trade picks for established players, I agonize over these picks. Driven between a combination of feeling the need to produce something I feel good about defending and somehow feeling it's a puzzle I can somehow solve, you, the reader reap the benefit.
For those who produce mock drafts weekly or, heaven forbid, daily, one must adopt a mindset where they can put a player in a slot and just move on because there's always another mock coming. It's a necessity, especially when one is covering the whole thing. That's not something I am good at doing.
The availability of data both in projecting the NFL Draft as well as now having information to go off of from the 2020 NFL Draft with this front office, it can provide a path to follow, but can be challenging to fit. That's also considering the idea of producing a mock draft that, even five months out, doesn't appear totally unreasonable, where the immediate reaction is that the picks could never happen and people stop reading it entirely, even if that might be what happens eventually.
In fact, the night before I started writing this out and had the draft almost entirely mapped out only to change the first round pick. It's all for you. Or at least, that's the rationale I'm choosing to grasp onto whatever remains of my sanity.
The plus side is I've been able to get a ton of research done on prospects, which largely involves ruling prospects out of consideration, being able to further focus on the prospects that make sense for the Browns as well as just historical trends over the course of decades. So in that sense, this is the most difficult draft to do because it's the one where I'm operating with the least information. For every mock draft after this one this year, I'm inherently working with more.
For the handful of you who made it through all of that and haven't dismissed me as a lunatic or are simply morbidly curious, the Browns have nine picks, which feels like a ton. The good news is that the Browns have a lot of talent on their roster and there were positions that I considered where either players on the back end of their roster or practice squad seemed preferable options and a waste of resources.
My early impression is that this is a weaker class. It's almost certainly going to be a product of small schools not playing this year and the prospects that might be in consideration for this year's NFL Draft, not even being part of the process until things like the Senior Bowl and other All-Star games occur as well as NFL Scouting Combine if they come out at all this year. There are simply fewer football players playing, which means the talent pool is smaller. Unfortunately, that is a huge wrinkle in the whole process, but an unavoidable one due to the pandemic.
This does not mean that there aren't good players to be had. There are tons, but it's not the embarrassment of riches some years have been where the undrafted free agent mark is loaded.
Last year, the NFL played it safe and largely chose players that went to the scouting combine almost exclusively and every single pick the Browns made was there. They had medical data on all of them and had the ability to interview them all in person. Perhaps simply a function of how the board fell, it's nevertheless worth considering.
Anyway. The picks.
Round 1: Kwity Paye, DE Michigan
Listed Measurables: 6'4" 277lbs
Age: 22 (November 19th, 1998)
Production: 26 solo tackles (5.5 percent), 12.5 tackles for loss (16 percent), 6.5 sacks (18 percent) in 2019
Kwity Paye seems ideal for what the Browns want in a defensive end, but he could certainly find his way up the draft board going before the Browns can select him. They might want to move up for him. He's got the size profile they like with tremendous athleticism, so they can play big, but get after the quarterback.
Paye has experience playing up and down the line, operating on both edges as well as on the interior, which also fits into how the Browns operate, finding the best matchup for Myles Garrett.
Quick off the line with power, Paye is often working forward, impacting the line of scrimmage, which can take him to the ball on running plays or force running backs to alter their course. Against the pass, it collapses the pocket. He's comfortable attacking inside or outside.
Paye is capable of doing a little of everything in terms of moves and ways to defeat blocks and attack the line of scrimmage. There are times when it doesn't seem like has the right tool for the job and needs to get more instinctive of how and when to employ them. However, when he's right, the results are impressive.
There are times when he will get stuck on blocks and needs to get better in terms of avoiding being blocked in the first place.
Paye has a remarkably lean build. He's basically the same size as Garrett, but he looks smaller. While he could probably add weight to his frame, his build may well enable him to be as athletic as he is. It could also allow him to increase his flexibility, which may help him stay healthy over the course of a long career.
Paye's early returns in 2020 are impressive, but he really still seems to be scratching the surface to what he's truly capable. He's a terrific college player, but the potential is there for him to be a more dominant NFL player.
Round 2: Tylan Wallace, WR Oklahoma State
Listed Measurables: 6' 190lbs
Age: 21 (Born March 1st, 2000)
Production: 35 receptions, 588 yards (44.4 percent), 4 touchdowns through 6 games in 2020
Tylan Wallace is one of the best deep threats in the country and would address a major need in the Browns offense while also providing another element and fits really well with one of Baker Mayfield's strengths.
Wallace has speed to work down the field, but his concentration and hands are what set him apart. He understands how to use his body, time his jumps and he is outstanding when it comes to 50/50 balls. Wallace makes it look easy, because he does such a great job with details.
Beyond the fact that Mayfield has thrived with deep threat options such as Antonio Callaway, when he was functional, and Breshad Perriman, Mayfield is a terrific passer when it comes to fades. Particularly during his rookie season, he threw a number of them and was great. Tylan Wallace excels in this area, which gives the Browns an effective vertical threat that can be out of Mayfield's hand immediately, neutralizing a pass rush.
Wallace is fearless going after passes, focused entirely on the ball, which enables him to make some truly spectacular catches. He also makes a pretty smooth transition from receiver to yards after catch with good speed in the open field.
Wallace did suffer a torn ACL as a junior and the doctors will have to sign off on his knee, but his recovery was remarkable because it happened at the beginning of November in the 2019 season and he hasn't missed a step in 2020. He's been great for three seasons at Oklahoma State and has really become a fully formed receiver in what he offers the Browns at that position.
Round 3: Elijah Molden, CB Washington
Listed Measurables: 5'10" 190lbs
Age: Unavailable
Production: 49 solo tackles (9.2 percent), 13 pass deflections (40.2 percent) in 2019
Washington has yet to play their first game of 2020 and Elijah Molden might be the best pure slot defender heading into the 2021 NFL Draft. Realistically, he shouldn't be available at this point, but between the fact there are bigger name corners likely to go ahead of him and some other positions that fly off the board so quickly, it's possible Molden could be here.
Molden is is a tremendous, instinctive football player thrives on contact and just fits in with the long line of Husky defensive backs that have been Chris Petersen's legacy as the head coach there in addition to the amount of wins he had.
He plays bigger than his size would suggest, he shows great awareness on the field and he just finds way to make plays and impact the game.
Molden has experience both in man coverage as well as zone in the slot, but he looks better in zone. That's not a knock on his man coverage as he gets hands on, jams opponents and runs with them well, but when his eyes are focused on the line of scrimmage, he sees the field well. He has plenty of examples where he anticipates where plays are going and either makes plays on the ball or at least secures tackles.
Molden is not someone that can really do anything else, but what he does, he plays at an extremely high level which could fit exactly what the Browns want in that position. If they don't address the slot corner spot in free agency or trade, this would be an excellent option. In the case of re-signing a player like Kevin Johnson, if they choose to go that route, they could move him to the boundary in a situation where they drafted Molden.
Round 3 (Via NO): Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE South Carolina
Listed Measurables: 6'4" 270lbs
Age: 21 (January 18th, 2000)
Production: 11 solo tackles (4.7 percent), 5 tackles for loss (20 percent), 4 sacks (40 percent) through 6 games in 2020
Nicknamed JJ, Enagbare has been on a tear early in 2020. He's explosive attacking forward, wins with power and just drives opposing blockers out of the way en route to the quarterback.
He never really opens up his hips, instead opting to work within the range of them, keeping all of his momentum going forward, playing with a pretty good pad level, using his hands reasonably well and doing just enough laterally to force opposing blockers to give him a lane to get hands on and drive.
That is likely who he will be at the next level as well. He's not really built to try to run the arc. He's going to take the quickest path to the ball carrier and simply run through whoever is in his path to get there. As a result, he does have experience lining up inside, attacking gaps between offensive linemen.
In many ways, it's a similar package that Adrian Clayborn offers. Enagbare is still young and could continue to get stronger, but he's not likely to make a dramatic change to his style. Enagbare fits within the size profile this team appears to prefer to this point and can help collapsing the pocket against mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, reducing their routes of escape.
He's a junior, but might opt to declare for the draft, especially if South Carolina makes a coaching change. They have a number of talented underclassmen, aren't winning and they all might opt to declare.
Round 4 (Via PHI): JaCoby Stevens, S LSU
Listed Measurables: 6'2" 230lbs
Age: 22 (Born June 19th, 1998)
Production: 53 solo tackles (10.9 percent), 3 interceptions (17.6 percent) in 2019
The Browns need to properly address the rover position in their defense and their best move may be to simply draft a player who's been operating in that role throughout his college career in JaCoby Stevens.
The Browns certainly know LSU's address as they selected both Grant Delpit and Jacob Phillips from that defense in the 2020 NFL Draft and they are utilizing those players largely in the same roles they had in college. They could do the same with Stevens.
Slightly bigger than some of the players operating in this role, Stevens has length as well. Long arms, he can extend and knock down passes in the passing game. Stevens has experience both in man coverage as well as zone. His size should help him with bigger slot receivers as well as dealing with the physicality of some tight ends.
He does have experience playing deep and coming up as well, so if the Browns were to roll their safeties in response to motion, Stevens can operate as a traditional strong safety. He has enough speed to operate in that role in a pinch.
Stevens has significant experience as a slot blitzing threat. After Delpit had five sacks in 2018, Stevens picked up the second recording five of his own in 2019, which was second on the team behind Klaivon Chaisson. It doesn't make him some spectacular pass rusher, but on a team loaded with threats, Stevens has shown he can defeat a block and cause problems for quarterbacks.
Round 4: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida
Listed Measurables: 6' 193 pounds
Age: 22 (Born January 27th, 1999)
Production: 29 receptions, 339 yards (18.5 percent), 6 touchdowns through 5 games in 2020
The Browns need to find a better answer returning punts and kickoffs, but since Kevin Stefanski has arrived, he's been consistently working to find himself a gadget player that can do few unique things.
When Stefanski was with the Minnesota Vikings, they had players like Percy Harvin and Cordarrelle Patterson. In his first year with the Browns, they put Jojo Natson on offense, have tried with a player like Taywan Taylor, but it really seems like they want someone dynamic that can be given the ball and be electric that doesn't necessarily have to be a featured part of the offense.
Kadarius Toney is listed as an athlete at Florida and this year, he is second on the team in receiving yards to this point. He also returns kicks, punts and will take jet sweeps and other manufactured touches.
As a receiver, he has decent enough hands, but he's an ordinary route runner that doesn't create much separation that isn't a product of his speed and agility. If he can improve in that area, he has some upside to grow in his role at the NFL.
He's impressive with the ball in his hands between his speed and his balance, showcasing strength at times bouncing off of tacklers to create explosive plays after contact. It doesn't hurt that Toney has size at the position. Special teams coach Mike Priefer can spend a substantial amount of time in developing Toney to provide a more consistent threat as a returner.
Round 5: Nate Landman, LB Colorado
Listed Measurables: 6'3" 235 pounds
Age: 22 (November 19th, 1998)
Production: 83 solo tackles (16.3 percent) in 2019
Landman has been remarkably productive for two seasons, making a ton of tackles for the Colorado defense. He's also proven he can be effective in coverage. He had an incredible sophomore season, which drew all sorts of praise, but he wasn't as effective as a junior. His production was still remarkable, but he just wasn't as great.
Colorado has only played one game so far this year, so he's got this season to continue to build his stock, albeit under a new head coach in Karl Dorrell.
Landman makes tackles and has at least shown the capacity to help in coverage, which is an upgrade over a few of the players the Browns have on their roster.
Landman is listed 6'3" but he moves and plays like several inches taller. Long arms, high cut and his movement appears strange because he takes such big steps when he moves. He does shuffle laterally pretty well, which helps mitigate some of the issue, but he struggles to flip his hips and transition smoothly.
For all of what appear to be athletic faults, he gets the job done and he understands where plays are going and how to stop them. He's far from perfect, but until there is athletic data to really hammer down on these points, there's an element with Landman where one just has to admit it works.
Round 6: Garrett Wallow, LB TCU
Listed Measurables: 6'2" 230 pounds
Age: Unavailable
Production: 77 solo tackles (17 percent) in 2019
Wallow plays fast and hits hard. When he reacts quickly to his key, he goes full speed to go make the play and he does a great job of reacting to the movement of the play as it's going on, adjusting his path and making the tackle on that downhill path.
Wallow does a terrific job of being able to fit up ball carriers so he can keep driving his legs through contact, rather than diving or having to drag down ball carriers. And because he reads and reacts well, going so fast, he's on ball carriers quickly and they can struggle to react to avoid him.
In that sense, he's similar to Jacob Phillips, whom the Browns drafted in the third round in 2020. Phillips is bigger, but it seems like a quality they like in linebackers. It's a useful trait because it mitigates some of the concerns over what happens when offensive linemen get to them. Linemen can't block linebackers if they beat them to the play. And like Phillips, Wallow thrives going down hill.
In pass coverage, he takes pretty good angles, will fly to tackle ball carriers and doesn't give up a ton of run after the catch. He is someone who can make the occasional play on the ball, but more than anything he's going to make sure he gets them on the ground.
It's unclear just how much potential Wallow has, but he's one of the more entertaining linebackers to watch and it's easy to see why teams would like him. He's simply going to give them everything he has, plays fast and makes tackles.
Round 7: Jack Heflin, DT Iowa
Listed Measurables: 6'4" 312 pounds
Age: 23 (March 8th, 1998)
Production: 14 solo tackles (3.4 percent), 8.5 tackles for loss (13.9 percent), 3 sacks (21.4 percent) in 2019 for Northern Illinois
Heflin is a graduate transfer at Iowa after having played his collegiate career at Northern Illinois where he was a walk on. For the Huskies, Heflin played some strong side end, a defensive end in their odd front and some on the interior.
Strong inside, Heflin can drive opponents backward and impact the line of scrimmage. He's also pretty stout at the point of attack.
Occasionally, he can flash some decent athleticism and straight line speed, but his balance and agility are questionable. He put on around 70 to 80 pounds since arriving in DeKalb and at points, it seems like he needs to do some refining to be a more consistent athlete. Perhaps the year with the Hawkeyes and the preparation for the NFL draft will help with that.
As it is, Heflin's production is solid. The solo tackles are low, but he led the team in both sacks and tackles for loss. Currently, he projects as a pure nose, but he might be able to do slightly more than that with further development.
Additional Thoughts
Overall, the draft addresses a lot of issues. The defense receives a ton of help and the ability to further evolve into the vision defensive coordinator Joe Woods laid out entering the 2020 season. The offense gets a piece it needs and one the coaching staff seems to really want, which could also provide a boost on special teams
Two positions stand out to me as I went through this draft process that I couldn't address in the way I wanted - defensive tackle and boundary corner.
My early read on this class is the defensive tackle position could be really weak. The Big Ten and PAC-12 seasons could produce more help there. Small school players might help a little, but not having played, it's difficult to see how much.
There just aren't as many good defensive tackle prospects as one would like, which might make it so the Browns need to keep what they have, hopefully adding Andrew Billings to the mix at nose, assuming the environment with COVID-19 is one he feels safe enough to play.
If the NFL comes to the same conclusion about defensive tackle, free agents could go for bigger sums of money and they might be less likely to trade them, which could be all the more incentive for the Browns to run it back with the group they have.
Boundary corner has talent, but it's entirely a question of how early the Browns choose to address it. There are some terrific fits as well as just raw talent in this draft class. Underclassmen could make a dramatic impact on the position group overall and make it so the Browns can get more bang for their buck in the middle rounds.
But going into the later rounds, looking at corner prospects, it was difficult to find one that seemed to offer more than what the Browns could already have in A.J. Green. And even Donovan Olumba, who doesn't appear to be anywhere in the NFL currently, seems more attractive. They may well add a body, but there were simply other positions that made more sense such as linebacker.
Safety was a similar problem when it came to adding depth. Sheldrick Redwine is a perfectly fine backup free safety. And at least right now, Jovante Moffitt might be the more attractive strong safety option. Both Moffitt and Green were undrafted free agents this past draft. It was a similar situation with Stephen Carlson at tight end.