Baker Mayfield's Injury and Impact on Future Contract

While he's still able to play through it, Baker Mayfield's shoulder injury could not have come at a worse time for him and the Cleveland Browns.

Baker Mayfield is the Cleveland Browns franchise quarterback, but his nagging shoulder injury casts significant doubt on the rest of 2021, as well as his ongoing contract situation.

The Cleveland Browns are 4-3 and in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt as they prepare to begin divisional play against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The team should be at least 6-1 right now, and while quarterback Baker Mayfield may not be directly responsible for losing any games thus far, he hasn't been the reason for the four victories either.

Mayfield was excellent in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs. He looked like the same player that closed out the 2020 campaign as one of the NFL's very best passers.

Then, after an errant pass that was intercepted in Week 2 against the Houston Texans, Mayfield suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, and while he finished that game having completed 19 of 21 attempts, the basic stats lie. His accuracy was not up to par, and his field vision and decision-making reverted to 2019/early 2020 levels.

Mayfield's accuracy continued to be a serious issue against Chicago, and came to a head against Minnesota when he had one of the worst outings of his career, missing so many open throws throughout the game.

His accuracy improved the next week against the Chargers, but his field vision was still rough. These issues have been compounded with an unwillingness to throw the ball away or take the easy throw, and a lack of comfort in the pocket. Mayfield is once again bailing from clean pockets far too early and is running himself into sacks and holding calls because of it, not to mention unnecessary hits.

He is not currently the elite player he was from Week 13 in 2020 through Week 1 this season, but that player didn't just disappear. It's not the fault of his offensive line, which has dealt with significant injuries this year yet is still functioning at a league-best level. It is not the fault of his receivers, who are generating plenty of yards after the catch, which is a great indication of good playcalling, and that's certainly been the case.

Kevin Stefanski has been forced to compress his playbook since Mayfield's injury, but he's still scheming his playmakers open extremely well. And Odell Beckham Jr. is getting open as often as any receiver in the league.

There's one excuse for Mayfield's poor play, and that's his injury. As far as we currently know, it's a fully torn labrum (very painful) and a fractured humerus (also very painful). Neither injury is debilitating to the point where he can't play, but he will need offseason surgery to repair the damage. And there is always the chance that the injury worsens.

Does the injury explain away Mayfield's poor accuracy? His happy feet and panic in the pocket? His apparent obliviousness to open receivers?

Maybe. Maybe not. It seems intellectually dishonest to excuse all of that because of an injury that is entirely possible (albeit painful) to play through. Many players do so, including Beckham (who is also dealing with an apparently even more painful AC joint sprain). Should that really take his accuracy from league-best to league-worst? Should it affect his eyes so much? Should it make him bail from clean pockets?

Those answers are impossible to know. The injury is definitely having an effect on him, and while it may not be responsible for all the regression in Mayfield's play, and that's a big part of the problem.

Mayfield in his current injured state is not enough to win the Super Bowl. That's just a cold, hard fact, and there's no way around it. Resting him for a week is unlikely to have a major impact, either. And no, Case Keenum is still not better than an injured Mayfield.

The fifth-year option on Mayfield's contract was a no-brainer to pick up. Barring a blockbuster move at QB that would seem incredibly out of character for this front office, Mayfield will be the guy moving forward. The question is what that is going to cost the team.

A record-setting rookie season followed by a down year in 2019, then an atrocious start to 2020, followed by gradual improvement, and then a jump to elite, only to fall back down to volatile mediocrity. That's been the story of Mayfield's pro career to this point, and at every step of the way, there have been major contributing factors to his performance that have made and continue to make it very difficult to evaluate him in a vacuum.

For the elite version of Mayfield, a contract in the low $40-million range annually would be a steal. But that Mayfield is sadly the rarest we've seen. Is that the player the Browns will be paying for?

The true Mayfield likely is not that consistently elite player, nor is he likely the one who nearly lost the Vikings game on his own. He's probably a lot closer to elite than he is to bad, but while there are now 52 games of data to go off of, there really is not enough to make a decision. Especially not one so expensive, one that, if made incorrectly, could completely derail the work from the past six years.

The current rumor seems to be that Mayfield would land a deal in the high $30 million annually range, which would make him more expensive than Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Carson Wentz, which unfortunately seems to be the tier that Mayfield belongs with right now, if only because of his inconsistency. His highs are higher than those three, but they haven't happened enough for him to be paid like Josh Allen, or Russell Wilson, or Dak Prescott, or the deal that Lamar Jackson will be given soon.

The discussion this past offseason was whether the Browns should extend Mayfield early in order to get ahead of players like Allen and Jackson setting the market, or if they should wait for Mayfield to prove he can put up consistent high-level play before financially committing to him. The team apparently chose the latter, and that seems to have been the right decision, but there are two parties involved in these negotiations, and if we've learned anything about Mayfield, it's that he'll always bet on himself.

He knows what he's capable of, and so do the Browns. Maybe they'll come to an agreement on a relatively cheap deal next week, or maybe he'll play out his entire rookie contract before signing a new one. 

It's just extremely disappointing and frustrating for both sides, because this season was not only one in which Super Bowl aspirations were (and, in many ways, still are) front and center, but it was the season for Mayfield to prove beyond a doubt that he is the guy, and that he should be paid like it.

Instead, an injury has thrown a serious wrench in those plans, and the situation is not going to resolve itself overnight. This is what Andrew Berry and Paul DePodesta are paid to deal with, however, and based on their history, they'll probably end up doing the smart thing, whatever that is.

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