Alarming Stat Shows Browns QB Deshaun Watson Has Been Historically Bad

The 1-4 Cleveland Browns are averaging just 15.8 points per game with Watson under center

Oct 6, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) passes the ball under pressure form Washington Commanders defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (93) during the first quarter at NorthWest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Cleveland Browns fans are no strangers to bad quarterback play. Through the first five weeks of the 2024 season though, they've likely never seen anything worse than Deshaun Watson.

According to a stat shared Austin Gayle of The Ringer Watson's average expected points added of -.3, through five games is the lowest figure of any Browns quarterback for Weeks 1-5 since the turn of the century.

Deshaun Watson is averaging -0.30 EPA per dropback, the lowest number for any Browns QB in Weeks 1-5 since at least 2000.

The second-worst performance? Deshaun Watson last season (-0.20).

— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 6, 2024

Expected points added is a newer analytic stat that attempts to capture how a player how well a player of team performs relative to expectation. Essentially, it attempts to quantify nuances of game play by relating each play to how much it increases (or decreases) a team’s chances of scoring.

For Watson to be in the negative is certainly alarming. However, head coach Kevin Stefanski shared after the team's 34-13 loss to the Commanders that he isn't considering a QB change.

To be fair, Watson's offensive teammates haven't done him any favors. Pre-snap penalties and dropped passes continue to plague Cleveland on a weekly basis, on top of the fact that the offensive line has offered little resistance to opposing defensive lines. The Browns o-line has allowed 26 sacks over that five week span.

As a unit, Cleveland is last in the NFL in third down conversion percentage (20.75%), they're near the bottom of the league in points per game (15.8), while also dropping to dead last in total yards per game (207.2)

By comparison, the Browns team that went 1-15 in 2016 averaged 16.5 points per game, a 36.3% third down conversion rate and 311 yards per game. The 2017 squad that went win-less averaged 14.6 points per game, posted a 33% third down conversion percentage, and 308 yards per game.