Browns' Deshaun Watson Explains What Makes A QB Elite In 2024

With quarterback numbers down across the league, the Cleveland Browns signal caller believes statistics don't tell the whole story

Sep 15, 2024; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) drops to throw against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the fourth quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

With offensive numbers down across the NFL, everyone around the sport is trying to theorize why.

Through two games, scoring this season is down to an average of just 21.4 points per game. Four years ago in 2020, that average hit a league-high peak of 24.8 points per game but has been on a gradual decline ever since.

The evidence doesn't stop there though, because quarterback numbers are also down across the league. A two game sample size is not nearly large enough to draw any sweeping conclusions for this season. But like the decline in scoring, the dip in QB numbers has also been on apparent, as the 300-yard games that once separated the elite QBs from the good ones and the good ones from the average ones are more rare these days.

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So what's causing the downward trend for offenses? Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has a theory.

"It’s definitely the 2-high defense," he said. "I think that might have been an emphasis for a lot of defensive coordinators over the year, this offseason, is just trying to eliminate those shots. Especially with the game is going the way it's going with a lot of DPIs and you can't touch the guys down the field for the defense, so it's harder for them. So they try to play with a lot of depth and 2-high shell so they keep everything underneath and you don't get those opportunities."

Watson isn't alone in that thinking. Numerous NFL analysts have been giving credence to the same theory about the two-high safety look on defense. It's also telling that while offensive numbers have been on the decline, there's been a steady increase in the usage of the two-high look.

League data shows that back in 2019 defenses ran a two-high coverage 26.8% of the time. In the five years since, the frequency of the scheme has increased by nearly eight percentage points to 34.6% of the time so far in 2024.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) throws the ball as Jacksonville Jaguars safety Antonio Johnson (26) and defensive tackle Jeremiah Ledbetter (99) look on during the third quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Browns defeated the Jaguars 18-13. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The idea of two-high coverage is to eliminate the deepest parts of the field by having split safeties who each cover a half of it. By making those big pass plays harder to come by, it forces offenses to matriculate the ball downfield. The ripple effects of that may impact the QBs most of all, as offenses – like the Browns – are built around setting their signal caller up to make the easy throws and take what the defense is giving them.

That begs another question then. Has the standard changed for what makes a quarterback "elite?" Watson had some thoughts on that as well.

"You can get kind of wound away with stats and things, but there are a lot of great quarterbacks out there that might not have the stats that certain guys do, but they win games," said Watson. "And I think in this league it's about winning games. You want to get to that ultimate championship. 2020, I had the best – I think me A-Rod [Aaron Rodgers] and Pat [Patrick Mahomes] was like the top three quarterbacks in the league [in terms of passing yards], but my team was 4-12, so those stats really didn't matter because we didn't win any games."

As Browns fans talk themselves dizzy over what the bar is for Watson, the 28-year-old has his answer. Watson was brought in with the idea that he was the elite QB that the franchise couldn't find for the better part of two decades.

Three years later, there may be no reclaiming that 2020 version of himself. The one who led the league in passing and was a top five QB in football. Given the offensive trends around the league though, perhaps he can still be a great NFL QB without being that guy.

"It’s about winning games in this league," Watson added. "And you have to win games to get those opportunities to play in the playoffs and then that's when you can have the opportunity to go get the ultimate goal and that Super Bowl ring. That's what every team is chasing.”