How Many Wins Does NFL.com Project Buccaneers to Earn?

With Baker Mayfield expected to be the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, things are looking a bit different for the team.

David Harrison | May 12, 2023

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For the past three seasons, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the NFL's favorite children.

Still, there were signs that the league's love of the Bucs wasn't true as the schedule kept putting the team in positions where they'd either shine under pressure or get embarrassed in grand view.

And now that retired quarterback Tom Brady is no longer the voice yelling into the stands pregame at Raymond James Stadium, the NFL's true feelings about the team are coming to light.

In fact, the Buccaneers face the league's 10th-hardest schedule despite facing the 11th-lowest opponent win percentage from last season.

Why? Because of how the schedule is presented.

And because of how the league placed Tampa Bay's opponents they now project the Bucs to win fewer than seven games in their post-schedule release analysis.

"Week 3's home contest against the Eagles presents a challenge," says NFL.com's Cynthia Frelund. "But the Week 5 bye could provide Tampa with a chance to rest early in the post-Tom Brady era. Looming after that is the Bucs' most daunting four-game swing: at the Bills in Week 8, at the Texans in Week 9, vs. the Titans in Week 10, and at the Niners in Week 11."

For some, a Week 5 bye week is like making your first pitstop 25 miles into a 1,000-mile trip with the intention of doing the next 9,975 without a break.

Sure, it could allow the Buccaneers to reset and adjust after four games of regular season action.

It could also set the team up for a significant physical breakdown late in the season as 13 straight games start to take their toll and a playoff bye week is unlikely.

Of course, if Tampa Bay only pulls off the 6.4 wins Frelund projects they won't be worried about their health past Week 18 as much as they are about how they'll use the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Find David Harrison on Twitter @DHarrison82

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Published May 12, 2023

DAVID HARRISON

David Harrison has been in sports media since 2015 using written, audio, and video media to cover athletes, coaches, and games. In addition to covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for BucsGameday and Locked On Bucs he also covers the Washington Commanders for Commander Country and Locked On Commanders and the Washington Wizards for Inside the Wizards. David also covers the NFL as a whole as one of the Friday hosts for Locked On NFL. He is a graduate of the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at Arizona State University and previously spent 20 years as an active member of the United States Army. Contact David via email at david.w.harrison82@gmail.com or on Twitter @DHarrison82.