Keys To Cannon Fire: How The Bucs Can Beat The Chiefs in Week 9

The Buccaneers have a clear path to victory over the Chiefs as long as they follow these keys to cannon fire.

Oct 27, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a two-game losing streak and find themselves quickly falling behind the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South division race. They are already down a game in the standings and were swept by them, giving the Falcons the edge in any tie-breaker scenario. With a Monday Night Football matchup against the Chiefs looming large, the Bucs can ill afford to lose any more ground.

Usually, games against non-conference opponents aren't considered must-win games — however, if the Bucs want to remain in the race for the NFC South a win in Kansas City would go a long way towards that goal. Losing would put them even further behind the Falcons and even further in the race for the division crown. it will be a tall task but the Bucs can win this matchup against the Chiefs if they follow these keys to cannon fire.

Keep Patrick Mahomes Off The Field

Mahomes hasn't been the same quarterback he's been in recent years through the first eight weeks of the season. In fact, he is on pace for career lows as a starter with just 1,651 yards passing, eight touchdowns, and a league-high nine interceptions. However, that doesn't mean he's not dangerous still.

Mahomes has thrown five interceptions over the middle of the field, a weak spot for the Bucs. He's also thrown for 906 yards and two scores. The Chiefs' offense has been extremely efficient on third down, coming into Monday Night's game with the second-best conversion rate at 50.5%. So, how do you stop Mahomes? Simple: You keep him off the field.

The Bucs need to rely on their running game, which has come alive this season, to keep the clock churning seconds off the clock in long extended drives that end in points. Kansas City currently boasts a top-5 defense in the NFL and is especially good at shutting down the run. They rank second in the league behind Baltimore allowing just 82.3 yards per game. However, the Bucs ran for 125 against the Ravens so being efficient in rushing will help Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field.

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Third Down Efficiency Is Critical

Of course, to keep the clock and chains moving, the Bucs will need to continue to be efficient on third down. They currently boast the league's best conversion rate on offense, converting on 52.5% of their attempts. Continuing to excel in that area will be critical for the Bucs against a Chiefs defense that is the 12th best at shutting down teams on third down with a 34.9% stop rate. The Bucs need to continue to put themselves in third and manageable situations as they've done all season and not be afraid to run in short-distance situations, especially against a team whose average depth of tackle is one yard past the line of scrimmage against the run game.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs have struggled a bit on third down. They are ranked 19th in the NFL when it comes time to stop teams from converting at a 38.8% rate. Their middle-of-the-field woes are well documented and as aforementioned, Mahomes has thrived there this season. The Bucs defense needs to play sound in their coverages and assignments and not let Mahomes, who has been his best on third downs this season, beat them not just with his arms but his legs as well. His 139 yards scrambling are the most he's had this early in a season and while the Chiefs do prefer to run the ball in between the tackle with 237 of their 847 yards this season coming up the gut alone, Mahomes is more prone to scrambling this season to move the chains.

Don't Be Afraid To Dink And Dunk Down The Field

Baker Mayfield is always going to look for the deep shot if it's there, but this week's game plan should center around moving the ball controlling the clock and converting third downs to march down the field on long methodical drives to put points on the board. The best way they can do that without their star receivers is to dink and dunk their way down the field.

The Chiefs' defense this season has allowed 900 yards on average depth of targets 10 yards or less, taking advantage of their slower linebackers and safeties in coverage should be something the Bucs look to do early and often. Getting the ball into their playmakers' hands and letting them do the rest will be a key to success against an aggressive Chiefs defense. Once in the red zone, the Bucs need to take advantage of a defense that is one of the 10 worst in the league, allowing teams to put points on the board in 51.9% of their trips.

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