NFL Playoff Picture: Where Do the Buccaneers Stand Going Into Week 18?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a simple task ahead as the NFC Playoff Picture takes shape in Week 18.

Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan (15) celebrates with quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) after a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The math is simple. The stage is set.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did their part on Monday with a win over the Carolina Panthers, and afterward, they could only sit and watch to see if the Washington Commanders could beat the Atlanta Falcons and put them back in front of the NFC South. The Commanders did, taking Atlanta to overtime and then besting it on the first drive, and so Tampa Bay once again leads the NFC South and controls its own destiny heading into Week 18.

As mentioned, it's very simple for Tampa Bay with Atlanta now one game back once again — defeat the New Orleans Saints in Week 18, and the Bucs win the NFC South and punch their ticket to the playoffs for the fifth year in a row. If they lose against the Saints, the narrow window through would involve the Falcons losing to the Carolina Panthers, a team the Bucs just demolished 48-14. The Bucs can now only win the division to make the playoffs — with a Commanders win over the Falcons, a Wild Card path has been sealed and the Bucs must be crowned in the NFC South to advance.

Should the Buccaneers indeed beat the Saints and punch their ticket, they can either be the No. 3 seed or the No. 4 seed. Should the Seattle Seahawks defeat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles would have the same record, but the Buccaneers would hold the conference tiebreaker — that would make Tampa Bay the No. 3 seed, and they'd face either the Commanders or the Green Bay Packers, depending on if the Commanders can defeat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18.

If that does not happen, the Buccaneers are locked into the No. 4 seed. They would then face either the Detroit Lions or the Minnesota Vikings — both teams are battling for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the loser would become the No. 5 seed and play the Buccaneers at home.

Before all that, though, Tampa Bay needs to take care of business. It'll look to do that against the Saints this Sunday at 1 p.m.

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