Keys to Victory: How the Bucs can beat the Falcons

Here's how the Bucs can end their season with a home win over the Falcons.

Looking to avoid its eighth losing record in the past 10 years, the Buccaneers face one final test of the Bruce Arians regime against the Atlanta Falcons. Though both teams are already out of playoff contention, these division rivals still have pride on the line.

In their previous encounter, the Bucs handily defeated the Falcons with suffocating defense and three touchdown passes from Jameis Winston. The Bucs quarterback was not perfect, throwing two interceptions, one of which yielded a touchdown for Atlanta.

Winston's turnover issues persisted since their Week 12 matchup. He has thrown eight interceptions and lost a fumble in the three games since. Over the season, Winston has 28 interceptions and could surpass 30 on Sunday, making him the first quarterback to throw 30 interceptions and 30 touchdowns in a season.

The Bucs also had significant injury issues since the last game. Pro Bowl wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will both be out of the season finale. Tampa's remaining skill players will need to step up one last time to stop the Falcons from claiming victory.

Here are the keys to victory over Atlanta in the Bucs' final game of the season:

Stop. Throwing. Picks. On. The. First. Drive.

Of all of Jameis Winston's problems, this one has to be the most frustrating and the most perplexing. Winston has thrown a pick on the Bucs' opening drive six times this season, including their last three games. He even managed to turn the ball over on his first pass against the Houston Texans last week.

Winston is actually more likely to throw a pick than a touchdown on the first drive. No other quarterback in the NFL has this kind of macabre consistency.

The Bucs defense was able to overcome the picks on some occasions, such as in Week 15 against the Lions. Even Winston himself was able to pull himself back from the brink at times, dropping five touchdowns on the Indianapolis Colts after his game-opening pick in Week 14.

Nevertheless, this particular ritual has to stop if the Bucs want to beat the Falcons. In the past six games, the Falcons defense have forced 13 turnovers, winning four of the six games.

Giving the ball away is no way to start a winning game. The outcome is more likely to mirror the loss to the Texans rather than the win over the Colts. Winston simply needs to be more careful with the football at the start of games.

Focus on the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection

If there is one team in the NFL that can empathize with the Bucs' issues at wide receiver, it's the Falcons. After trading WR Mohammed Sanu to the Patriots, Atlanta soon lost Calvin Ridley to injured reserve with an abdominal injury following Week 14. Down two of their top three receivers from the start of the season, Falcons QB Matt Ryan just has WR Julio Jones to rely on at wideout.

"Just" probably isn't a word anyone should use in reference to Jones. He averages 94 yards a game and could eclipse 100 catches on the season on Sunday. He easily leads the team in catches and will no doubt be Matt Ryan's favorite target all day.

The Bucs managed to limit Jones in their last matchup to just five catches for 68 yards. Cornerback Carlton Davis and his five pass breakups had a lot do with Jones' lack of production as did the Tampa pass rush, which had 13 total pressures on Ryan.

Replicating the pass rush will be especially helpful in limiting Ryan's ability to get the ball to Jones. The lack of other receiving options should allow the Bucs to double up or bracket coverage on Jones. Shutting down their connection would all but suffocate the Atlanta offense.

Make Ronald Jones a true starting running back

It's time to make the Bucs' 2018 second-round pick a bigger part of the offense.

After a highly disappointing and unproductive rookie season, Jones has become Tampa's most effective runner. While he averages just 3.8 yards per carry, no other running back on the team averages more than 3.3 YPC.

What really separates him from the rest of the team is his ability to get yardage after contact. He has 23 broken tackles this season, nearly three times more than Peyton Barber. In fact, Jones averages a broken tackle every seven rush attempts, second only to Saints RB Alvin Kamara.

Jones was also a key player of the Bucs' last win over the Falcons. He ran for 51 yards on 12 carries, caught all three passes thrown to him and scored a rushing and a receiving touchdown. He was effective in nearly every facet of the game, and it stands to reason that he could repeat or even surpass that performance with more chances on Sunday.

The apparent knock on Jones is his shortcomings as a pass protector, but his effectiveness as a ball carrier warrants more work than he's gotten. With Barber becoming a free agent this offseason, the Bucs need to see Jones as their clear cut starting running back.