Buccaneers at Jets: Week 17 Game Preview

Will Tampa Bay win its final road game of the year?

The Buccaneers (11-4) are heading to the Big Apple this weekend to take on the Jets (4-11). If the Bucs win, they'll tie the franchise record for the most wins in a single season. 

The last time Tampa Bay won 12 games, it won Super Bowl XXXVII.

That's not saying the Bucs will repeat this year if they win this game and match the total, but they will be one step closer to securing the NFC's No. 2 seed (with some help) if they do pull off the win in New York on Sunday.

The Bucs are clearly the superior team, evidenced by the fact that they are (+13.5) point favorites. Can the Jets give them a run for their money?

Let's dive into this week's game preview.

Overview

• All-time series: New York leads the all-time series, 10-2.
• Longest win streak: The Jets won eight in a row from 1985-2016.
• Largest margin of victory: New York crushed the Bucs, 34-0, and 62-28 back in 1976 and 1984, respectively.
• 2021 offensive and defensive rankings: The Bucs have the NFL's second-best offense (1st pass, 25th run) and they have the 10th-ranked defense (21st pass, 3rd run). Tampa Bay averages 29.5 points per game on offense (2nd) and has allowed 20.8 points per game on defense (9th). The Jets currently own the NFL's 21st-ranked offense (18th pass, 26th run) and the NFL's worst defense (28th pass, t-30th run). They average 18.4 points per game (27th) on offense, while allowing 29.9 points per game on defense (32nd).

Tampa Bay's defense hasn't given up a touchdown in back-to-back games

What To Watch For

• Can the reserves continue to shine for the Bucs: The Bucs have dealt with a ton of injuries, but the backups have been plenty good enough for the team to keep winning on a consistent basis. This was especially true last week against the Panthers. Names like Cyril Grayson Jr., Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Anthony Nelson, and others have shown up throughout the year and they will be relied upon again not just in this game, but in the foreseeable future. They've proved they can make plays in the NFL, the question now is: How long can they keep it up and can they do it on a consistent basis?
• Winless in New York (against the Jets): The Bucs have never beaten the Jets in New York and these two teams have met 12 times since Tampa Bay's inaugural season in 1976. In fact, before last year, the Bucs hadn't won in New York at all since 1997. In all, the Bucs have won just two games in the Big Apple since 1976. For whatever reason, the team has trouble up there, but that shouldn't be the case, this week. The Bucs should get their first franchise win over the Jets in New York with Tom Brady at the helm.
• How much do Antonio Brown and Mike Evans play: It's great news that both players will see the field this week, but how much should they really be involved? Game flow will obviously dictate this, but there's an argument to be made that both should see limited action, even if it's a close game throughout. Sure, Tampa Bay still has a good shot at moving up to the No. 2 seed in the playoffs if it wins out, but there's already at least one home playoff game on lock, so it wouldn't be too bad an idea to let Evans and Brown rest up a bit more. I'm not saying play them for just 10-15 snaps apiece or anything like that, but around 20-30 for each player sounds about right. If the Bucs were still in the hunt for the NFC South crown, it'd be a different conversation. It'll be interesting to see how much these two play on Sunday.
• The Bucs' red hot defense: Tampa Bay hasn't given up a touchdown in its last two games. Sure, the opposing offenses (New Orleans, Carolina) have not been good at all, but hey, you can only play who's on your schedule, right? And a good defense dominating a bad offense is what's supposed to happen, right? I mean, people would certainly complain if the Bucs let Carolina score 30 on them last week, so why not give the defense the credit it deserves when it does what it's supposed to do? Either way, the Bucs defense is playing great football and it has a chance to stretch it's touchdown-less period from eight consecutive quarters to 12 this week.

Impact Players

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• QB Tom Brady: The Bucs have had at least one injury at every position on the team except quarterback. Brady is the obvious glue that holds the team together and the Bucs always have a chance to win if he's playing.
• RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn: We saw what Vaughn is capable of last week against the Panthers and he should get more opportunities this week to show it wasn't a fluke.
• WR Cyril Grayson Jr.: Can he continue to develop into a reliable target for Brady? That would be a major help as the Bucs head into the postseason.
• DL Ndamukong Suh: Suh just keeps getting the job done, whether it's in run defense or rushing the passer. He should find success against the Jets interior offensive line, which has given up the fifth-most blown blocks in pass protection, per Sports Info Solutions.
• OLB Anthony Nelson: Nelson will receive his first start of 2021 due to the injuries surrounding Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. He already has a career-high three sacks on the year and should have opportunities for more in this game.
• S Jordan Whitehead: The dude was in playoff form last week against the Panthers and that same presence will be needed this week.

New York Jets

• QB Zach Wilson: The rookie has certainly had his ups and downs, but there's a reason he was the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. The Bucs have to make sure they don't let him build any confidence at any point in the game.
• RB Michael Carter: He's been a nice revelation for the Jets and looked good last week against the Jaguars.
• WR Braxton Berrios: Per SIS, Berrios leads the team with 16 targets over the last three weeks. He also has a rushing touchdown over that span, which signifies his versatility.
• DL John Franklin-Myers: Myers missed the Jacksonville game due to COVID-19, but is back this week. He is tied with Quinnen Williams for the team lead in sacks, so Tampa Bay's interior line needs to have an answer for him. 
• LB C.J. Mosley: The former first-round pick is fifth in the NFL with 142 total tackles and is definitely the Jets' best defender. 
• S Ashtyn Davis: The second-year safety is coming into his own with a team-leading two interceptions. 

Cool Stats

• In Week 16 at Carolina, Brown made 10 catches for 101 yards receiving. It was Brown's 23rd game with 10-or-more receptions, surpassing Andre Johnson (22) for the most-such games in NFL history
• Brady needs four touchdown passes to break his single-season franchise record for passing touchdowns (40 in 2020) and surpass Josh Freeman (80) for the second-most passing touchdowns in team history.
• The Buccaneers have 113 quarterback hits this season, the third-most in a single season since quarterback hits became regularly tracked in 2006. They need two more to pass 2019 (114) for second-most and three more to pass 2000 (115) for the most quarterback hits in a single season since at least 2006.

*Stats provided by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Communications Department

Braxton Berrios is taking advantage of the late-season injuries to the Jets' receiving corps

Game Outlook

I like to be as fair as possible when it comes to analyzing other teams, but let's be real on this one. The fact that the Bucs have never beaten the Jets in New York is the only thing Robert Saleh's squad has going for them in this one.

Which isn't good, obviously.

There is room to give the Jets credit. They've had two impressive wins over the Titans and the Bengals - two teams that are likely to win their respective divisions. But outside of that, 2021 has mostly been a large mess. 

Tampa Bay outmatches New York in literally every facet of the game. Coaching, quarterback, defense, skill players - it's all there. That's no disrespect to the Jets or anything, it's just how this season has turned out.

It would take a mega-catastrophe for the Bucs to lose this game. One even bigger than the Washington debacle. At this point, that's really, really hard to envision. It would take one of the ultimate examples of "Bucs beating Bucs" for the Jets to pull the upset today. 

The Bucs are 11-4, NFC South champs, and face one of the league's worst teams in Week 17. Pull up a chair and rest easy, folks, this is what's considered "the good life" in the NFL. Expect the Bucs to come away with one of the easier wins of the year this week.

Stay tuned to AllBucs for further coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and other NFL news and analysis. Follow along on social media at @SIBuccaneers on Twitter and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sports Illustrated on Facebook.