Three Keys to a Buccaneers Victory Over Saints

The Buccaneers can beat the Saints in Week 15 by accomplishing these three things.

Just when you thought the New Orleans Saints' recent stretch of dominance over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was over, as the Bucs snapped a five-game losing streak to the Saints in the 2020-21 playoffs, momentum surged back in the direction of The Bayou when New Orleans beat Tampa Bay in Week 8 by a score of 36-27.

How can the Buccaneers flip the script on the Saints as they did this past January? It will require a much cleaner game offensively than the one Tampa Bay put up earlier this season, and a disruptive showing defensively to take advantage of New Orleans' passing liability at quarterback.

Below are AllBucs' three keys to a Buccaneers' win over the Saints in Week 15.

1. Flip the turnover ratio

The primary reason why Tampa Bay lost to New Orleans in Week 8: The turnover differential.

The primary reason why the Buccaneers beat the Saints in the divisional round of the playoffs this past January: The turnover differential.

Tom Brady tossed two interceptions and lost a fumble in Week 8 which directly resulted in 16 points in New Orleans' favor, whereas, three Drew Brees interceptions and a Jared Cook fumble turned into 21 Buccaneers' points and the win-sealing final drive of the playoff game. 

It's a simple formula to follow: Limit turnovers offensively and take the ball away defensively, and you can beat the Saints. 

That will require ball security across the board and smarter decisions from Brady against a strong New Orleans defense, however, turnovers can be created defensively as Saints quarterback Taysom Hill has thrown five interceptions over his last four starts and fumbled twice, although he recovered both, last week against the New York Jets.

2. Turn up the pressure, but contain Taysom Hill

Look no further than New Orleans' Week 13 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys and you'll find the way Tampa Bay can limit the Saints' offense this Sunday: Bring the pressure.

Whether he's under pressure or kept clean, Hill is not a strong passing quarterback. In fact, per Pro Football Focus, three of his four interceptions vs. Dallas came from a clean pocket when he was not blitzed. However, Hill still looked his best in a clean pocket by completing 65.4 percent of his 26 such passes - compare that to his horrendous 13.3 completion percentage under pressure and 46.2 completion percentage when blitzed.

Of course, the biggest threat Hill poses is when he runs the ball, showcased by his 6.6 yards per attempt and five touchdowns in the ground this year. He can escape pressure and beat teams with his legs which will require gap discipline from the Bucs defense to prevent, whether the unit blitzes or sends a standard rush. 

Fortunately for Tampa Bay, its defense has proven it can get the job done against Hill in these manners. He didn't play against the Bucs in Week 8 or in the playoffs, but in his seven career appearances vs. Tampa Bay, Hill has combined for 77 yards and no touchdowns on 14 attempts - effective, but not all that threatening, especially as 54 of those yards came in one game (Week 9, 2020).

3. Get Ronald Jones II going

As Leonard Fourentte is dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out of two practices this week, Ronald Jones II will have an opportunity to carry the ball well beyond his sub-five attempts per game average this season. Fournette still has a chance to play, but to avoid further injury, the Bucs could lean on his backup as Jones has fared well against the Saints as of late.

Jones' usage has been mixed in the last four matchups with the Saints, as he earned only three carries in Week 8 for 13 yards and three carries for nine yards plus three catches for nine yards in Week 9 last season. However, in the Week 1 and playoff matchups with New Orleans last year, Jones combined for 128 yards on 30 rushes (4.3 yards per attempt) and two receptions for 16 yards. Fournette outrushed Jones by one yard in the playoff game, but he earned that yard on four additional carries.

Even in his three-rush game earlier this year, Jones averaged 4.3 yards per carry - effective, even against the league No. 6 run defense. Given the nature of Tampa Bay's running back room right now - remember, Giovani Bernard went on the injured reserve this week - it would be wise to increase Jones' utilization to get the run game going.

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