Buccaneers' Week 10 Game vs. 49ers Could Be Huge Playoff Swing for Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' game against the San Francisco 49ers could be crucial for their playoff hopes.

Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton (88) carries the ball against San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Isaiah Winstead (2) during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Times are dire for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over halfway through the season. The team is on a bad skid that has seen them lose four of their last five games, and they have to play a San Francisco 49ers team that it hasn't beaten since 2018. And according to Pro Football Focus, there is a lot at stake for Tampa Bay's playoff chances when they play the 49ers on Sunday.

Per PFF, Tampa Bay has the highest swing for playoff probability according to their model in Week 10. As it stands, the Bucs a little over 30% chance of making the playoff per the PFF model, and their game against the 49ers has a drastic 31% swing — a win over San Francisco will bump their chances to 54% while a loss will tank it to 23%.

READ MORE: Buccaneers Drop In Week 10 Power Rankings After Overtime Loss To Chiefs

This is likely due to Tampa Bay's fortunate record against conference opponents. Right now, the Bucs are the 11th seed in the NFL at 4-5. Despite that, though, they have a head-to-head win over the No. 2 -seed Washington Commanders and the No. 6-seed Philadelphia Eagles, and they happen to be playing against the No. 9-seed 49ers on Sunday. A win in that game would ensure that Tampa Bay would hold a tiebreaker over all the opponents in the mix that it has played, but a loss would see the San Francisco 49ers have a better chance of making a Wild Card berth if they cannot best the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West.

The Bucs are no strangers to this situation. They lost six of seven games in the middle stretch of their 2023 season to drop to 4-7, but they ended up winning five of their next six to make the playoffs at 9-8. That will be much harder this year, however, as they made the playoffs as a division winner and the 6-3 Atlanta Falcons — who hold the 2-0 sweep over Tampa Bay — will be much harder to best in that regard.

The Bucs may need to play almost perfect after the bye week, but they'll try to do so with one of the easiest remaining strength of schedules in the NFL. It will be possible, but very difficult, at 4-6, but Tampa Bay would much rather try it at 5-5 with a win over the 49ers before their Week 11 bye.

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